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Puma Biotechnology
(NASDAQ:PBYI)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(19.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
PBYI scores well primarily on strengthened financial performance (low leverage, positive profitability, and improved cash generation). The earnings call reinforces this with raised guidance and a debt-free balance sheet, though deductions/royalty risks and higher spending temper the outlook. Technicals are supportive but not strongly overextended, and valuation appears reasonable at ~16x earnings without dividend support.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength (debt-free, cash runway)
Elimination of term debt and nearly $94M in cash materially reduces fixed financing obligations and increases strategic optionality. This bolsters the company's ability to fund clinical programs, commercial investments, and absorb operational variability without near-term refinancing risk.
Negative Factors
High gross-to-net deductions (~28%)
A nearly 28% gross-to-net rate meaningfully reduces realized revenue per unit and limits margin expansion. Because payer mix and rebates drive this metric, it can persist and structurally constrain net sales growth even if volumes rise, pressuring long-run revenue durability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength (debt-free, cash runway)
Elimination of term debt and nearly $94M in cash materially reduces fixed financing obligations and increases strategic optionality. This bolsters the company's ability to fund clinical programs, commercial investments, and absorb operational variability without near-term refinancing risk.
Read all positive factors
Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$489.87M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)562.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth-2.86%
EPS Growth-46.26%
CountryUS
Employees179
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding51,620,068
10 Day Avg. Volume391,965
30 Day Avg. Volume562,573
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)2.28
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio7.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside-24.81% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$222.00M
Puma Biotechnology Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Puma Biotechnology, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the global development and commercialization of treatments aimed at advancing cancer care. Its lead drug candidate, orally administered neratinib (PB272), targets a range of indi...
How the Company Makes Money
Puma Biotechnology generates revenue primarily from net product sales of NERLYNX (neratinib). The company sells NERLYNX into the pharmaceutical supply chain (e.g., specialty distributors and/or specialty pharmacies), and recognizes revenue based o...
Puma Biotechnology Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong commercial momentum: meaningful QoQ and YoY increases in NERLYNX demand and bottle sales, a return to GAAP profitability in Q2, raised full-year revenue and net income guidance, and elimination of debt. These positives are tempered by pressure from high gross-to-net deductions (~28%), potential royalty reductions in China when generics gain share, rising R&D spend and increased quarter-over-quarter cash burn, and operational items like elevated DSO and a QoQ decline in new patient starts. On balance, the company appears to be in a strengthening commercial and financial position while managing identifiable near-term risks tied to deductions, international royalties, and increased investment in clinical programs.Positive Updates
Revenue and Product Sales Growth
Total revenue for Q2 2026 was $56.5M with net product revenue (NERLYNX) of $53.6M, up from $42.0M in Q1 2026 (≈+27.6% QoQ) and up from $49.2M in Q2 2025. Gross NERLYNX revenue was $74.3M in Q2 2026 versus $57.5M in Q1 2026.
Negative Updates
High Gross-to-Net Deductions
Gross-to-net adjustment was ~27.9% in Q2 2026 (up from ~27.0% in Q1 2026). Management attributes the high adjustment primarily to a higher Medicaid share, pressuring net realized revenue.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Product Sales Growth
Total revenue for Q2 2026 was $56.5M with net product revenue (NERLYNX) of $53.6M, up from $42.0M in Q1 2026 (≈+27.6% QoQ) and up from $49.2M in Q2 2025. Gross NERLYNX revenue was $74.3M in Q2 2026 versus $57.5M in Q1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Puma updated 2026 guidance, raising net NERLYNX product revenue to $205–$209 million (up from prior $202–$206M), with a full‑year gross‑to‑net of 26.5%–27.5%, expected royalties of $19–$22 million (versus prior $20–$23M), and projected full‑year net income of $17–$20 million (versus prior $16–$19M); the company does not expect any license revenue in 2026 and will continue to record amortization/milestone expense of about $2.4 million per quarter as cost of sales. For Q3 2026 Puma guided net product revenue of $54–$56 million, royalties of $2–$3 million, a Q3 gross‑to‑net of roughly 26%–27%, and Q3 net income of $2.0–$2.5 million. Management also cautioned that the China sublicense contains a generics‑triggered royalty reduction that could occur in late 2026 or 2027 and noted the company is debt‑free with approximately $93.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at June 30, 2026.Puma Biotechnology Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 231.24M | 228.37M | 230.47M | 235.64M | 228.03M | 253.16M |
| Gross Profit | 173.04M | 170.21M | 166.06M | 172.96M | 172.94M | 189.45M |
| EBITDA | 47.67M | 53.34M | 48.08M | 47.52M | 21.89M | -4.69M |
| Net Income | 26.72M | 31.11M | 30.28M | 21.59M | 2.00K | -29.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 192.74M | 216.30M | 213.33M | 230.53M | 222.06M | 226.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 93.90M | 97.53M | 100.97M | 95.94M | 81.07M | 82.11M |
| Total Debt | 4.82M | 28.55M | 74.08M | 111.49M | 114.28M | 116.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 54.19M | 85.96M | 121.21M | 177.09M | 200.45M | 229.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | 138.54M | 130.34M | 92.13M | 53.44M | 21.61M | -2.45M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 41.16M | 41.73M | 38.86M | 14.37M | -22.83M | 20.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.15M | 41.80M | 38.92M | 27.01M | -15.83M | 20.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.02M | -36.19M | -20.44M | -19.13M | 7.10M | -10.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -45.31M | -45.20M | -33.85M | 0.00 | 12.22M | -31.93M |
Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis
Positive
7.98
Price Trends
8.12
Positive
7.66
Positive
6.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.32
Negative
61.58
Neutral
83.13
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBYI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.43, below the 50-day MA of 8.12, and above the 200-day MA of 6.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBYI.
Puma Biotechnology Risk Analysis
Puma Biotechnology disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Puma Biotechnology reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Puma Biotechnology Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $489.87M | 16.99 | 20.85% | ― | -2.86% | -46.26% | |
52 Neutral | $419.26M | -7.08 | 72.64% | ― | 51.98% | 17.68% | |
52 Neutral | $1.40B | -0.07 | -91.63% | ― | ― | 69.48% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $210.12M | -1.83 | -57.92% | ― | -19.07% | 2.07% | |
46 Neutral | $159.85M | -1.30 | -108.05% | ― | ― | 45.08% | |
41 Neutral | $59.78M | -1.65 | -300.90% | ― | 0.99% | -3014.75% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PBYI
Puma Biotechnology
9.11
3.89
74.52%
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics
0.31
-1.01
-76.59%
VYGR
Voyager Therapeutics
3.32
-0.04
-1.19%
FHTX
Foghorn Therapeutics
7.01
1.97
39.09%
VOR
Vor Biopharma
23.07
-20.33
-46.85%
TNYA
Tenaya Therapeutics
0.69
-0.47
-40.52%
Puma Biotechnology Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Puma Biotechnology Shareholders Back Governance, Reject Warrant Extension
Neutral
Jun 16, 2026
Puma Biotechnology, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2026, at its Los Angeles headquarters, where shareholders elected eight directors to one-year terms and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered accounting fi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.