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Prosperity Bancshares
(NYSE:PB)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$82.00
â–²(12.10% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong profitability, good cash conversion, and improving leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook tied to merger-driven synergies and guided NIM expansion. Valuation is reasonable with a meaningful dividend, while the technical picture is supportive but less fully validated due to missing momentum indicators; the main risk remains weak near-term organic growth and integration-related expense/timing pressure.
Positive Factors
Merger-driven market expansion & leadership continuity
The Stellar acquisition materially increases scale and Texas footprint while adding experienced regional leaders who joined Prosperity’s board and management. That structural expansion and leadership continuity improves cross-sell, deposit diversification and execution capacity to realize longer-term revenue and cost synergies.
Negative Factors
Reliance on M&A for growth
Loan and deposit growth have been driven mainly by recent acquisitions rather than organic demand. If future M&A slows or integration synergies are delayed, top-line expansion may stall and the bank will depend on margin improvements and cost savings to sustain earnings growth, raising execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Merger-driven market expansion & leadership continuity
The Stellar acquisition materially increases scale and Texas footprint while adding experienced regional leaders who joined Prosperity’s board and management. That structural expansion and leadership continuity improves cross-sell, deposit diversification and execution capacity to realize longer-term revenue and cost synergies.
Read all positive factors
Prosperity Bancshares (PB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.97B
Dividend Yield3.18%
Average Volume (3M)908.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth5.64%
EPS Growth5.19%
CountryUS
Employees3,941
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.77
Shares Outstanding119,854,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,120,214
30 Day Avg. Volume908,671
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.91
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.76
P/FCF Ratio12.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.78Price Target Upside9.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.74B
Prosperity Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. serves as the holding company for Prosperity Bank, providing a comprehensive suite of financial solutions to both individual customers and corporate clients. The bank gathers various types of deposits, such as checking,...
How the Company Makes Money
Prosperity Bancshares makes money primarily through traditional banking spread income and fee-based services. Its largest earnings driver is net interest income: the bank collects interest on earning assets—mainly loans (such as commercial and ind...
Prosperity Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated solid underlying financial progress driven by mergers: meaningful YoY earnings growth, improved NIM (guidance to continue expanding), strong deposit and loan balances on a combined basis, a healthy asset quality profile and material projected cost synergies that support higher future profitability. Near-term challenges include muted organic loan growth, a QoQ reduction in loans excluding warehouse, higher near-term noninterest expense due to integrations and conversion timing, isolated securities sale losses, and competitive pressure compressing lending spreads. On balance the positives (earnings/NIM expansion, M&A revenue tailwinds, strong cost‑savings runway and healthy capital) outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Merger Completion and Board Strengthening
Completed the Stellar Bancorp merger on July 1, 2026 (Stellar operated 52 branches across Houston, Beaumont, East Texas and Dallas). Several former Stellar executives and directors joined Prosperity's boards, supporting market expansion and integration plans.
Negative Updates
Flat to Modest Linked‑Quarter Loan Growth
Loans excluding mortgage warehouse decreased $117M QoQ (Q2: $23.7B vs Q1: $23.8B) and total loans fell from $25.288B at Mar 31, 2026 to $25.028B at Jun 30, 2026 (roughly a $260M decline). Management expects flattish loan balances for the remainder of 2026.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Merger Completion and Board Strengthening
Completed the Stellar Bancorp merger on July 1, 2026 (Stellar operated 52 branches across Houston, Beaumont, East Texas and Dallas). Several former Stellar executives and directors joined Prosperity's boards, supporting market expansion and integration plans.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated forward guidance and key assumptions: Q2 tax‑equivalent NIM was 3.47% and they expect to exit 2026 at roughly 3.70–3.75% (with full‑year 2027 around 3.80–3.85%), Q3 fair‑value loan income of $6–8M, and Q3 noninterest expense of $244–250M (including Stellar). They reported Q2 core results of $162M net income ($1.62 diluted EPS), NII pre‑provision of $330.6M, an annualized pro‑forma core net‑income run‑rate of ≈$780M, and reiterated pretax cost‑savings of ~$20–25M from American/Texas Partners plus ~$80–85M from Stellar (≈$100–110M total pretax) when integrations are complete. Balance‑sheet and credit metrics underpinning the outlook: loans $25.0B ($23.7B ex‑warehouse), deposits $32.6B (noninterest‑bearing $10.7B, 32.9%), NPAs ≈$130–131M (~33–34 bps of avg. interest‑earning assets; ~0.52% of loans/OREO), allowance $420M (~2.9x NPAs), Q2 net charge‑offs $2.18M, efficiency ratio 46.0%, bond portfolio mod duration 3.7 (~$2.2B projected cash flows), and management said pro‑forma ROTCE should reach roughly 17–18% once synergies are realized.Prosperity Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.78B | 1.74B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.20B | 1.15B |
| Gross Profit | 1.29B | 1.25B | 1.14B | 1.05B | 1.11B | 1.10B |
| EBITDA | 750.70M | 849.15M | 647.39M | 565.42M | 694.47M | 689.30M |
| Net Income | 562.31M | 542.84M | 479.39M | 419.32M | 524.52M | 519.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 43.87B | 38.46B | 39.57B | 38.55B | 37.69B | 37.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.57B | 12.28B | 12.95B | 896.74M | 880.33M | 3.06B |
| Total Debt | 2.44B | 2.15B | 3.42B | 4.03B | 4.13B | 448.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 35.57B | 30.85B | 32.13B | 31.47B | 30.99B | 31.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.29B | 7.62B | 7.44B | 7.08B | 6.70B | 6.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 444.19M | 516.98M | 451.55M | 612.20M | 464.11M | 675.71M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 458.27M | 549.51M | 472.69M | 646.36M | 506.53M | 694.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 91.34M | 773.91M | 1.98B | 1.09B | -1.96B | -2.72B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -562.41M | -1.55B | -940.22M | -1.71B | -666.75M | 3.23B |
Prosperity Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
73.15
Price Trends
71.65
Positive
69.43
Positive
68.80
Positive
Market Momentum
0.88
Negative
61.37
Neutral
85.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.25, above the 50-day MA of 71.65, and above the 200-day MA of 68.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PB.
Prosperity Bancshares Risk Analysis
Prosperity Bancshares disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Prosperity Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Prosperity Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $6.26B | 12.73 | 11.01% | 2.68% | 1.86% | 10.69% | |
76 Outperform | $5.82B | 8.31 | 11.63% | 3.70% | 0.67% | 0.52% | |
76 Outperform | $8.58B | 13.27 | 10.84% | 1.73% | 1.36% | 27.32% | |
72 Outperform | $8.97B | 12.98 | 7.08% | 3.25% | 5.64% | 5.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
74.62
10.79
16.91%
OZK
Bank OZK
51.60
5.44
11.78%
BOKF
Bok Financial
144.53
45.51
45.96%
HOMB
Home Bancshares
31.21
4.31
16.03%
Prosperity Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Prosperity Bancshares Completes Acquisition of Stellar Bancorp
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Prosperity Bancshares completed its previously announced acquisition of Stellar Bancorp, folding Stellar into Prosperity and merging Stellar Bank into Prosperity Bank, with Prosperity as the surviving entities. The roughly $590 mi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.