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OPAL Fuels
(NASDAQ:OPAL)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-27.18% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/11/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk (high leverage/weak balance-sheet history and negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup (price below major moving averages with weak momentum). These are partially offset by a more positive earnings-call backdrop, including maintained guidance, strong EBITDA growth, and a visible capacity/production improvement pipeline supported by ample liquidity.
Positive Factors
Adjusted EBITDA growth
Strong adjusted EBITDA growth indicates improving earnings capacity, supported by higher RNG Fuel and Fuel Station Services contributions plus cost savings. If maintained, this operating improvement can provide greater funding for expansion and strengthen the economics of OPAL’s growing low-carbon fuel platform.
Negative Factors
High leverage and weak balance sheet
Historically negative equity and very high TTM debt-to-equity indicate constrained financial flexibility and elevated balance-sheet risk. This leverage can limit OPAL’s ability to absorb operating setbacks or fund expansion internally, making sustained execution and cash generation especially important.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Adjusted EBITDA growth
Strong adjusted EBITDA growth indicates improving earnings capacity, supported by higher RNG Fuel and Fuel Station Services contributions plus cost savings. If maintained, this operating improvement can provide greater funding for expansion and strengthen the economics of OPAL’s growing low-carbon fuel platform.
Read all positive factors
OPAL Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$263.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)277.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth3.38%
EPS Growth-124.91%
CountryUS
Employees331
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding30,290,962
10 Day Avg. Volume139,601
30 Day Avg. Volume277,560
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-5.14
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-1.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda27.90
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$351.44M
OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
OPAL Fuels Inc. focuses on the creation and distribution of renewable natural gas (RNG), supplying it as an alternative vehicle fuel primarily for heavy and medium-duty commercial trucking fleets. Beyond merely providing fuel, the company also spe...
How the Company Makes Money
OPAL Fuels generates revenue primarily by selling renewable natural gas (RNG) and related transportation fuels and services to fleet and other end customers. A core revenue stream comes from producing RNG (by capturing and upgrading biogas from la...
OPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial trajectory: strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+40%), modest revenue growth (+4%), higher RNG production (+8% YoY), ample liquidity, and a visible pipeline of near-term capacity additions. Management emphasized large operating leverage and non-capex production improvement opportunities. Key negatives include a significant decline in the renewable power segment (≈-86% EBITDA), modestly underperforming production versus internal expectations this quarter, some project timing/interconnection risks, and policy/RIN uncertainty that could affect upside. Overall, the positives (profitability improvement, project pipeline, liquidity, and actionable operational initiatives) outweigh the lowlights, but monitoring execution on production improvements and policy/RIN developments remains important.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $23.1 million, up 40% year-over-year versus Q2 2025, driven by 45Z production tax credits, Fuel Station Services growth, and G&A cost savings.
Negative Updates
Renewable Power Segment Weakness and Impairment
Renewable Power segment adjusted EBITDA declined to $0.3 million from $2.2 million in the prior year (≈-86%), driven by lower production and pricing amid conversions of renewable power assets into RNG plants. A noncash impairment was recorded in connection with a renewable power project decommissioning for the CMS RNG conversion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $23.1 million, up 40% year-over-year versus Q2 2025, driven by 45Z production tax credits, Fuel Station Services growth, and G&A cost savings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
OPAL said it is maintaining its full‑year 2026 guidance while expecting production and EBITDA to ramp in the second half driven by plant improvement initiatives and projects coming into service; in Q2 it reported adjusted EBITDA of $23.1M (+40% YoY) on consolidated revenue of $83.4M (+4%), RNG production of ~1.3M MMBtu (~8% YoY, roughly high‑50% utilization of 9.0M MMBtu nameplate), RNG fuel segment EBITDA of $18.6M (vs $13.3M), Fuel Station Services EBITDA of $12.5M (vs $10.9M), renewable power EBITDA of $0.3M (vs $2.2M), and G&A of $3.2M; management expects ~2.0M MMBtu of annual design capacity to come online over the next 12 months and ~3.0M MMBtu over 24 months (plus ~1.0M MMBtu recently released for GC), sees potential 5–10% upside from gas‑collection and availability improvements on its 9.0M MMBtu fleet (with most incremental volumes flowing to EBITDA), reported ~$0.30 discretionary free cash flow per share LTM, ended the quarter with $162.2M liquidity (including $91.4M cash, $19.3M available revolver, $51.6M undrawn preferred commitments), invested >$52M in H1 into projects/owned stations, and noted that landing at the upper end of the guide hinges primarily on stronger production and D3 RIN pricing (with planned Q3 SG&A increases already incorporated in the full‑year plan).OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 339.11M | 348.98M | 299.97M | 256.11M | 235.53M | 166.12M |
| Gross Profit | 94.05M | 106.18M | 100.12M | 72.21M | 72.74M | 51.06M |
| EBITDA | 32.07M | 34.43M | 45.51M | 150.74M | 53.31M | 58.24M |
| Net Income | 18.70M | 14.75M | 11.03M | 29.95M | 11.32M | 210.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.04B | 959.47M | 881.08M | 754.61M | 644.86M | 380.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 91.36M | 24.41M | 24.31M | 48.22M | 105.37M | 39.31M |
| Total Debt | 431.69M | 365.43M | 310.56M | 210.61M | 179.65M | 229.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 523.89M | 461.71M | 416.05M | 297.12M | 267.04M | 285.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.35M | -12.93M | -148.45M | -478.81M | -800.60M | 14.00K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -46.48M | -34.24M | -94.21M | -75.56M | -132.76M | -70.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.53M | 36.50M | 33.03M | 38.27M | -1.35M | 18.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -104.91M | -77.32M | -134.55M | -74.15M | -184.03M | -117.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 124.72M | 41.56M | 83.50M | 5.90M | 220.55M | 125.01M |
OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis
Negative
2.06
Price Trends
1.86
Negative
2.02
Negative
2.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
27.83
Positive
20.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.66, above the 50-day MA of 1.86, and below the 200-day MA of 2.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.83 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OPAL.
OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis
OPAL Fuels disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $4.64B | 25.74 | 38.51% | 0.66% | 29.02% | 49.57% | |
70 Outperform | $4.95B | 11.82 | 27.41% | 1.68% | -4.37% | 13.37% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
59 Neutral | $3.50B | 25.21 | 8.46% | 0.49% | 5.12% | -42.27% | |
58 Neutral | $5.89B | -3.66 | -57.08% | 6.65% | -4.77% | -151.32% | |
54 Neutral | $983.32M | 34.96 | 2.49% | ― | 8.89% | -54.65% | |
51 Neutral | $263.78M | -112.69 | 256.80% | ― | 3.38% | -124.91% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OPAL
OPAL Fuels
1.51
-1.04
-40.78%
AMRC
Ameresco
18.53
-23.02
-55.40%
AGX
Argan
331.03
37.49
12.77%
FLR
Fluor
44.05
-4.45
-9.18%
KBR
KBR
39.23
-3.81
-8.86%
PRIM
Primoris Services
65.03
-76.32
-53.99%
OPAL Fuels Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
OPAL Fuels announces upcoming leadership transition and CEO change
Neutral
Oct 21, 2026
On October 19, 2026, OPAL Fuels announced that Co-Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Maurer plans to retire from his role effective March 31, 2027, ending a leadership tenure that dates back to the company’s formation in 2021 and a long career...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
OPAL Fuels Schedules Q3 2026 Earnings Release Call
Neutral
Oct 20, 2026
On October 20, 2026, OPAL Fuels announced it will report its third-quarter 2026 earnings, covering the period ended September 30, 2026, before the market opens on Monday, November 9, 2026. The company will host an earnings conference call the same...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
OPAL Fuels Schedules Upcoming Q2 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, OPAL Fuels announced it would report its second-quarter 2026 earnings, covering the period ended June 30, 2026, before the market opens on Monday, August 10, 2026. The company also scheduled a conference call for 11:00 a.m. Easte...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.