Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

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Northern Oil And Gas

(NYSE:NOG)

75Outperform

Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated strong financial performance and attractive valuation, with a solid recovery in revenue and cash flow. However, technical indicators suggest caution with current bearish trends. The recent earnings call highlights resilience amid market volatility, but challenges such as commodity price fluctuations and M&A slowdown remain.

Positive Factors

Dividend

The quarterly base dividend was raised by approximately 7% to $0.45 per share, offering an above-average yield of about 5%.

Financial Performance

NOG started 2025 off strong with Adj EBTIDA of $435mn beating Consensus and BofAe expectations.

Mergers and Acquisitions

NOG remains quite constructive on its M&A/A&D pipeline, with additional commentary expected on opportunities in oil vs. gas and Permian vs. other basins.

Negative Factors

Guidance and Expectations

NOG announced 2025 guidance which fell short of expectations, with capex ~3% above consensus while oil volume guidance was ~5% below.

Oil Production

2025 oil guidance coming in at 77 mbd is below the estimate and consensus of 81 kbd.

Production Challenges

Fourth quarter volumes were negatively impacted by Bakken wildfires and third-party rail delays in Uinta.

Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.79B

Dividend Yield5.98%

Average Volume (3M)2.02M

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.4

Beta (1Y)0.98

Revenue Growth24.27%

EPS Growth5.01%

CountryUS

Employees49

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength42

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.33

Shares Outstanding98,704,080

10 Day Avg. Volume1,725,211

30 Day Avg. Volume2,024,248

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.16

Price to Book (P/B)1.09

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-21.59

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.32

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.02

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.39

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.19

Price Target Upside26.77% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. By acquiring non-operated working interests, the company benefits from its partnerships with major operators who manage the day-to-day drilling and extraction activities. This model allows NOG to participate in the revenue streams generated from the sale of oil and natural gas without directly managing the operations. Northern Oil and Gas also enhances its earnings by strategically acquiring assets in regions known for high productivity and favorable economic conditions. The company's revenue is influenced by several factors, including commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, NOG's partnerships with leading operators in the industry help to optimize its asset portfolio and contribute to its overall earnings.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Oil And Gas has shown strong revenue and income growth, substantial gross profit margins, and improved financial stability with reduced debt levels. The cash flow is robust, supporting strategic financial decisions.

Income Statement

Positive

Northern Oil And Gas has shown significant revenue growth over the years, notably increasing from $324 million in 2020 to over $2.2 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been substantial, and the company has demonstrated strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 23.4% in 2024. There was a remarkable recovery from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, indicating some variability in operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an increased Stockholders' Equity from negative in 2020 to over $2.3 billion in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved significantly due to debt reduction, indicating enhanced financial stability. However, the company still faces potential risk from past high leverage periods, though recent improvements are noteworthy.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals strong Operating Cash Flow growth, reaching $1.4 billion in 2024, which supports robust Free Cash Flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The consistent Free Cash Flow growth and positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio highlight effective cash management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.21B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M	324.07M
	Gross Profit
856.25M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M	15.83M
	EBIT
1.02B	837.83M	1.12B	853.19M	415.31M	-2.72M
	EBITDA
1.79B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M	-685.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
647.68M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M	-906.04M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
32.47M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M	1.43M
	Total Assets
4.63B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B	872.09M
	Total Debt
1.94B	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M	944.84M
	Net Debt
1.91B	2.36B	1.83B	1.52B	793.92M	943.41M
	Total Liabilities
2.63B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B	1.10B
	Stockholders Equity
2.00B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M	-223.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-121.41M	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M	47.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.42B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M	331.69M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.53B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M	-283.93M
	Financing Cash Flow
109.42M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M	-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price27.76

Price Trends

50DMA

26.54

Positive

100DMA

30.88

Negative

200DMA

34.11

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.79

Negative

RSI

55.89

Neutral

STOCH

67.86

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.13, above the 50-day MA of 26.54, and below the 200-day MA of 34.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VAL	76 Outperform	$2.65B	8.80	14.66%	―	30.82%	-62.91%
NOG	75 Outperform	$2.79B	4.40	29.41%	5.98%	24.27%	5.01%
CIVI	75 Outperform	$2.67B	3.31	12.73%	6.93%	22.14%	5.69%
STR	61 Neutral	$2.73B	35.11	2.86%	7.75%	7.18%	―
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.13B	3.45	-3.67%	5.68%	0.46%	-50.35%
CRGY	54 Neutral	$2.85B	23.27	-3.54%	5.35%	31.58%	-114.70%
PTEN	53 Neutral	$2.29B	―	-24.93%	5.40%	5.82%	-481.39%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NOG

Northern Oil And Gas

27.76

-10.25

-26.97%

CIVI

Civitas Resources

28.54

-38.33

-57.32%

PTEN

Patterson-UTI

5.84

-4.76

-44.91%

STR

Sitio Royalties

17.60

-3.63

-17.10%

VAL

Valaris

37.46

-37.75

-50.19%

CRGY

Crescent Energy Company Class A

9.04

-2.61

-22.40%

Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 12.12%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance, with record production and cash flow metrics. However, significant market volatility and commodity price challenges pose risks, particularly impacting larger M&A activities and necessitating cautious capital allocation. The company's adaptability and strategic approach in navigating the current environment are emphasized.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Free Cash Flow and Low Leverage

Generated $136 million in free cash flow and $94 million after dividends, with leverage remaining extremely low, offering a cushion to navigate market shifts.

Record First Quarter Production

Total average daily production was approximately 135,000 BOE per day, up 2.5% versus Q4, with oil production coming in flat versus Q4 at approximately 79,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year total production increased by 13%, with oil production up 12%.

Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was approximately $435 million, marking a record for NOG.

Increased Well Activity and Efficiency

Elected 96% of well proposals with expected returns above hurdle rate, saw a 23% increase in lateral lengths resulting in a 10% decrease to normalized well costs.

Negative Updates

Market Volatility and Commodity Price Challenges

The recent market volatility and changing outlook for commodities present challenges, with potential impacts on activity levels and capital spending.

Oil and Gas Realization Challenges

Oil differentials came in at the high-end of guided range at $5.79 per barrel, reflecting disruptions and seasonal widening, with expected improvements uncertain.

Potential Slowdown in Larger M&A

A relative slowdown in larger M&A expected due to widened bid-ask spreads in volatile market conditions.

Company Guidance

During the NOG's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance emphasizing its adaptability in response to market volatility and commodity price fluctuations. NOG reported producing approximately 135,000 BOE per day, with oil production at about 79,000 barrels daily. The company generated $136 million in free cash flow and $94 million after dividends, with an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $435 million, marking a record for NOG. Over 60% of expected production is hedged for 2025, ensuring resilience amid commodity cycles. The call highlighted a $850 million to $900 million maintenance capital range, and capital allocation focused on risk-adjusted returns, debt reduction, and share buybacks. NOG remains committed to leveraging market downturns to create long-term value, as evidenced by past successes.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.