Geopolitical RisksThere are macro and geopolitical uncertainties affecting ASML's Q3/Q4 bookings, particularly due to semiconductor tariffs and a weakening China WFE.
Growth OutlookASML's uncertain CY26 growth outlook, influenced by lower low-NA EUV deliveries and reduced China revenues, is not fully captured in consensus estimates.
Market ChallengesThe share price still reflects flat layer count progression, little to no China tailwind, and minimal sales from Intel and Samsung.