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National Fuel Gas Company
(NYSE:NFG)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$83.00
â–¼(-0.62% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong margins and healthy operating cash flow) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a meaningful dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical trend/momentum, variability in revenue and free cash flow, and near-term leverage and execution/regulatory risks tied to the acquisition and operational headwinds discussed on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Diversified integrated business
NFG’s combination of commodity production, fee-based midstream services, tariffed transportation and regulated distribution creates multiple earnings drivers. This integrated structure can improve resilience across gas-price cycles while preserving exposure to long-term demand for natural gas infrastructure and utility service.
Negative Factors
Acquisition-related leverage
The Ohio acquisition increases debt, interest expense and share count at a time when management expects near-term pressure on credit metrics. Although NFG targets leverage in the low-2s, the financing burden could constrain capital allocation and make deleveraging dependent on sustained operating cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified integrated business
NFG’s combination of commodity production, fee-based midstream services, tariffed transportation and regulated distribution creates multiple earnings drivers. This integrated structure can improve resilience across gas-price cycles while preserving exposure to long-term demand for natural gas infrastructure and utility service.
Read all positive factors
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.26B
Dividend Yield2.78%
Average Volume (3M)720.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.04
Revenue Growth12.53%
EPS Growth167.56%
CountryUS
Employees2,322
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.25
Shares Outstanding95,045,100
10 Day Avg. Volume927,720
30 Day Avg. Volume720,246
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.67
P/FCF Ratio44.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$93.00Price Target Upside11.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.01B
National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) operates as a multifaceted energy enterprise, with its business structured across four primary divisions: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production (E&P...
How the Company Makes Money
NFG makes money through a combination of regulated and non-regulated energy businesses. (1) Upstream (exploration & production): The company earns revenue by producing natural gas (and, where applicable, natural gas liquids) and selling these comm...
National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive long‑term outlook supported by a clear growth plan: management raised multi‑year EPS growth targets (7%–10% through fiscal 2029), disclosed significant free cash flow generation ($1.0B–$1.5B), advanced the Line N expansion with long‑term contracts, made substantial progress on the Ohio utility acquisition and highlighted operational milestones (record long laterals, planned wells coming online). Near‑term challenges include lower-than-expected production this quarter tied to completion interactions and some underperforming wells, higher operating costs from inflation and regulatory timing effects, and increased leverage and interest expense tied to acquisition financing. Overall, the positives (strong long‑term guidance, hedging, contracted capacity, asset quality and planned production ramp) outweigh the near‑term operational and financing headwinds, which management is addressing through optimization, rate proceedings and a deleveraging focus.Positive Updates
Quarterly Adjusted EPS
Reported adjusted EPS of $1.54 for the quarter, in line with expectations (down $0.10 YoY, ~-6% vs prior-year quarter).
Negative Updates
Lower Production Impacting Quarterly Results
Adjusted EPS decline of $0.10 YoY was driven by lower production in the Integrated Upstream & Gathering segment, which more than offset stronger price realizations and hedge gains.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Adjusted EPS
Reported adjusted EPS of $1.54 for the quarter, in line with expectations (down $0.10 YoY, ~-6% vs prior-year quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated near‑ and long‑term guidance: fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS was revised to $7.40–$7.60 (quarterly adjusted EPS $1.54), with Seneca production now expected at 420–430 Bcfe and a NYMEX assumption of $3/MMBtu (price certainty on ~75% of production at prices above the strip); management now targets 7%–10% EPS CAGR through fiscal 2029 while generating $1.0–$1.5 billion of free cash flow over that period. Operational and capital metrics include quarter production/throughput of 104 Bcf/117 Bcf, 14 wells expected online in Q4 to drive a record exit rate, modestly higher FY26 capex at the midpoint (driven by diesel/oil and schedule), maintenance land spend ~ $15M/year with $100M–$200M of discretionary leasing over several years, per‑unit DD&A normalizing to the low‑to‑mid $0.80s, and modestly higher cash unit costs from inflation. Regulatory, commercial and financing drivers noted were Line N expanded by 200,000 dekatherms/day to add 294,000 dekatherms/day (with >400,000 dekatherms/day contracted to Shippingport, including 20‑year contracts), nearly $30M of incremental expansion revenue from Tioga Pathway/Shippingport laterals, a targeted Oct 1 close of the Ohio utility acquisition (calendar Q4) financed with $1.5B of long‑term debt (three tranches, weighted avg rate ≈5%), issuance of 4.4M shares and a $1.2B promissory note at 6.5%, and a goal to return leverage to the low‑2s (2.0–2.25) while continuing dividend growth (56th consecutive increase; 124‑year paying streak).National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 1.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.23B | 1.51B | 817.70M | 847.85M | 902.96M | 759.72M |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 1.31B | 682.98M | 1.18B | 1.18B | 959.99M |
| Net Income | 675.28M | 518.50M | 77.51M | 476.87M | 566.02M | 363.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.45B | 8.72B | 8.32B | 8.28B | 7.90B | 7.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 43.17M | 38.22M | 55.45M | 46.05M | 31.53M |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.67B | 2.69B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.53B | 5.62B | 5.47B | 5.32B | 5.82B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.92B | 3.09B | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 222.27M | 187.21M | 134.72M | 227.21M | 695.00K | 39.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 812.52M | 791.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -891.70M | -933.90M | -1.11B | -518.70M | -633.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 951.52M | -203.38M | -149.28M | -207.00M | -276.24M | -58.74M |
National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis
Negative
83.52
Price Trends
80.60
Negative
79.34
Negative
82.29
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.38
Positive
32.67
Neutral
23.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 83.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.01, above the 50-day MA of 80.60, and above the 200-day MA of 82.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NFG.
National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $407.94B | 19.83 | 10.98% | 3.40% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
75 Outperform | $674.35B | 21.17 | 12.68% | 2.50% | 10.58% | 9.80% | |
75 Outperform | $274.52B | 10.60 | 14.66% | 3.10% | 7.37% | 103.01% | |
69 Neutral | $7.26B | 10.81 | 18.72% | 2.78% | 12.53% | 167.56% | |
66 Neutral | $100.95B | 11.69 | 21.61% | 3.53% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $115.34B | 21.58 | 9.53% | 4.48% | 15.84% | 791.90% |
* Energy Sector Average
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
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-8.48
-9.77%
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National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
National Fuel Gas Completes Major Ohio Utility Acquisition
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company completed its acquisition of CenterPoint Energy’s Ohio natural gas utility business, Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, on October 1, 2026, paying $1.42 billion in cash and issuing a $1.20 billion unsecured promissory...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Gas Advances Shelf Registration Requirements
Neutral
Aug 11, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company disclosed that it has filed the legal opinion of Scarinci Hollenbeck, LLC as an exhibit to its registration statement on Form S-3. The filing indicates the company is completing a required legal component for its shelf r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation and Outlook
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company updated its investor presentation, highlighting the use of non-GAAP financial measures alongside GAAP metrics to better assess ongoing operations, cash flow and liquidity, and to enable comparability wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.