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Murphy Oil
(NYSE:MUR)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(15.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/25/26
The score is driven primarily by a stable-to-improving balance sheet with consistently positive operating cash flow/free cash flow, but moderated by cyclical top-line pressure (revenue declining into 2025) and volatility/uncertainty in near-term profitability signals. Technicals are moderately supportive (price above key averages with positive MACD and mid-range RSI), while valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds cautious optimism—operational outperformance and positive free cash flow outlook—tempered by higher capex and exploration/appraisal cost and timing risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Positive operating and free cash flow, sub-1x leverage, and substantial liquidity give Murphy financial flexibility to fund development, sustain its dividend, and absorb commodity volatility while pursuing organic growth projects.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and weaker profitability
The multi-year top-line decline indicates that commodity pricing, volumes, or both have pressured the business. Weaker recent profitability reduces confidence in earnings durability and may constrain internally funded investment if conditions persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Positive operating and free cash flow, sub-1x leverage, and substantial liquidity give Murphy financial flexibility to fund development, sustain its dividend, and absorb commodity volatility while pursuing organic growth projects.
Read all positive factors
Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.97B
Dividend Yield3.82%
Average Volume (3M)1.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth7.73%
EPS Growth5.87%
CountryUS
Employees813
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.05
Shares Outstanding143,381,120
10 Day Avg. Volume1,574,398
30 Day Avg. Volume1,800,971
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio11.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.10Price Target Upside12.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.15B
Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy Oil Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a company primarily focused on discovering and extracting crude oil and natural gas. Its operational footprint spans across the United States, Canada, and various internation...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its operated and non-operated wells. Revenue is largely generated from (1) sales volumes (how much the company produces and...
Murphy Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful exploration success (Bubale discovery), operational outperformance (production above guidance, Eagle Ford strength, Tupper Montney), strong balance sheet metrics (free cash flow, liquidity, leverage <1x) and clear plans to fund organic growth. Those positives were tempered by a dry hole and resource downwards revision at Hai Su Vang, higher-than-expected appraisal well costs at Bubale, and uncertainty around elevated near-term capital needs and 2027 spend that will depend on appraisal results. Overall the company presents multiple growth pathways while emphasizing disciplined, staged appraisal and balance sheet protection.Positive Updates
Bubale Discovery in Côte d'Ivoire
Discovery well encountered oil in both the Turonian and Cenomanian reservoirs; appraisal program under way with Bubale West-1X spud in July as first of up to 5 potential appraisal wells; company allocated roughly $190 million to Bubale in the revised 2026 program (≈$100M incremental discovery spend + $90M first appraisal well).
Negative Updates
Hai Su Vang (HSV) Appraisal Result and Resource Revision
HSV-4X was a dry hole and new data led to a reduced resource estimate; management acknowledged the result was disappointing and that reservoir thickness/quality was more limited than previously expected, tightening the field resource range (though company still characterizes the remaining opportunity as ~200–300 million boe).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Bubale Discovery in Côte d'Ivoire
Discovery well encountered oil in both the Turonian and Cenomanian reservoirs; appraisal program under way with Bubale West-1X spud in July as first of up to 5 potential appraisal wells; company allocated roughly $190 million to Bubale in the revised 2026 program (≈$100M incremental discovery spend + $90M first appraisal well).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Murphy raised the midpoint of 2026 capex to $1.55 billion (from $1.25B) to fund organic growth—including roughly $190 million for Bubale (about $100M incremental on the discovery well and ~$90M for the Bubale West‑1X appraisal), and $70 million accelerated into the Eagle Ford (expected to add ~5,000–6,000 boe/d in 2027). Q2 production averaged 169,000 boe/d (above guidance midpoint); the quarter generated $110 million of free cash flow, returned $50 million via dividends, maintained leverage below 1x and ended with ≈$2.5 billion of liquidity, and Murphy still expects positive full‑year free cash flow at current prices despite the higher spend. Key project and timing metrics: Bubale appraisal is a staged, data‑driven 18–24 month program of up to five wells (Bubale West‑1X spud in July; dry‑hole cost estimate revised from $65M to ~$90M, potentially higher if formation evaluation is required); Hai Su Vang’s resource was revised to ~200–300 million boe (≈2–3× Lac Da Vang) with Vietnam peak production outlook unchanged at 30,000–50,000 boe/d (likely nearer the low end today); Lac Da Vang is on schedule for first oil in Q4 with net 2027 exit ~5,000–9,000 bbl/d ramping to 10,000–15,000 bbl/d in 2028–29; Chinook #8 (26,000 ft TD) remains on track for Q4 start.Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.02B | 2.69B | 3.02B | 3.45B | 4.22B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 2.49B | 577.76M | 1.00B | 2.62B | 2.38B | 1.28B |
| EBITDA | -27.39B | 1.33B | 1.54B | 1.95B | 2.38B | 1.06B |
| Net Income | 294.05M | 104.20M | 407.17M | 661.56M | 965.05M | -73.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.28B | 9.83B | 9.67B | 9.77B | 10.31B | 10.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 483.88M | 377.00M | 423.57M | 317.07M | 491.96M | 521.18M |
| Total Debt | 2.26B | 2.20B | 2.07B | 2.09B | 2.79B | 3.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.87B | 4.60B | 4.33B | 4.22B | 5.16B | 5.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.26B | 5.12B | 5.19B | 5.36B | 4.99B | 4.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 329.79M | 396.40M | 820.83M | 647.16M | 1.05B | 733.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.25B | 1.73B | 1.75B | 2.17B | 1.42B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -1.03B | -908.16M | -998.68M | -1.11B | -417.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -222.66M | -264.06M | -716.54M | -923.72M | -1.08B | -794.51M |
Murphy Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
34.62
Price Trends
35.30
Positive
36.75
Negative
34.54
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
50.58
Neutral
25.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.75, below the 50-day MA of 35.30, and above the 200-day MA of 34.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUR.
Murphy Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.08B | 6.99 | 27.20% | ― | 26.65% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $8.41B | 9.51 | 16.53% | 2.53% | 75.39% | -28.23% | |
66 Neutral | $7.63B | 8.93 | 31.04% | ― | 78.68% | 34.53% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $4.67B | -39.80 | -3.60% | 3.00% | 2.33% | -117.79% | |
64 Neutral | $4.97B | 17.54 | 5.71% | 3.47% | 7.73% | 5.87% |
* Energy Sector Average
MUR
Murphy Oil
35.95
12.17
51.18%
SM
SM Energy
36.81
9.07
32.67%
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
70.61
31.11
78.76%
CRC
California Resources Corp
52.94
4.33
8.90%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
176.13
-0.41
-0.23%
Murphy Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Murphy Oil Appoints New Chief Legal Officer
Positive
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation announced the appointment of Michol L. Ecklund as Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary, effective August 31, 2026. She will join the executive leadership team and report dire...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.