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Keurig Dr Pepper
(NASDAQ:KDP)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(11.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is primarily held back by margin compression and higher leverage in the latest TTM period, despite strong revenue growth and improved free cash flow. The earnings-call outlook is supportive due to reaffirmed guidance and acquisition-driven scale, but coffee-related cost volatility and timing-driven benefits temper confidence. Technically the setup is mixed, and the elevated P/E limits valuation upside even with a ~2.9% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Acquisition Scale
Strong top-line expansion reflects both sustained legacy growth and the addition of JDE Peet’s. The broader coffee platform increases scale, diversifies revenue and creates opportunities to use KDP’s manufacturing and distribution network more efficiently.
Negative Factors
Higher Leverage
Acquisition financing has materially increased leverage and reduced financial flexibility. Although management targets year-end leverage of approximately 4.1x, elevated debt makes the company more sensitive to margin pressure, integration setbacks and interest costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Acquisition Scale
Strong top-line expansion reflects both sustained legacy growth and the addition of JDE Peet’s. The broader coffee platform increases scale, diversifies revenue and creates opportunities to use KDP’s manufacturing and distribution network more efficiently.
Read all positive factors
Keurig Dr Pepper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Highlights profit generated from each business segment, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where operational efficiencies or challenges may exist.
Highlights profit generated from each business segment, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where operational efficiencies or challenges may exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.21B
Dividend Yield2.99%
Average Volume (3M)14.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.5
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth27.48%
EPS Growth-12.53%
CountryUS
Employees30,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding1,360,826,000
10 Day Avg. Volume11,049,770
30 Day Avg. Volume14,561,358
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.75Price Target Upside23.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.32B
Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a prominent beverage firm with operations spanning both the United States and global markets. The company structures its business across four primary divisions: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, an...
How the Company Makes Money
KDP primarily makes money by selling (1) packaged beverages and (2) coffee systems products. In packaged beverages, revenue is generated from the sale of branded and licensed ready-to-drink beverages to retailers and distributors, and through dire...
Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted substantial enterprise-level strength driven by the JDE Peet's acquisition, robust performance in U.S. Refreshment Beverages (notably energy and CSDs), solid free cash flow and measurable integration progress (single invoice, organizational readiness, deleveraging). These positive outcomes materially outweighed the material but contained headwinds in U.S. Coffee—where elevated green coffee costs, hedging timing and pod category softness pressured sales and profitability. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and outlined remediation steps (cost synergies, lower-cost inventory flow-through, commercial initiatives), signaling confidence in recovery in H2 while acknowledging near-term commodity volatility and certain timing-related limitations to sustainability of some JDE Peet's Q2 upside.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth Driven by JDE Peet's
Consolidated net sales grew ~74.6%–75% in Q2 2026, driven by the April 1 acquisition of JDE Peet's; legacy KDP net sales (ex-JDE) grew 7.3% year-over-year (constant currency).
Negative Updates
U.S. Coffee Revenue and Profit Pressure
U.S. Coffee net sales declined 3.2% in Q2, with pod shipments down 11.6% as-reported (down 8.3% excluding Peet's reporting shift). Segment operating income fell 24.7%, driven by higher green coffee input costs, tariff impacts, unfavorable mix shifts and elevated marketing spend.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth Driven by JDE Peet's
Consolidated net sales grew ~74.6%–75% in Q2 2026, driven by the April 1 acquisition of JDE Peet's; legacy KDP net sales (ex-JDE) grew 7.3% year-over-year (constant currency).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
KDP reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for total company net sales of $25.9–$26.4 billion (including $8.5–$8.7 billion from JDE Peet’s), legacy KDP constant‑currency growth of 4–6% (with the high end most likely), and low‑double‑digit constant‑currency EPS growth (driven roughly by a 6–7 point contribution from JDE Peet’s plus 4–6% from legacy KDP), with an expected ~1 percentage‑point FX tailwind to net sales and EPS; the outlook now assumes an incremental 2% non‑cash depreciation headwind to 2026 EPS offset largely by a one‑time tariff‑refund cash benefit (net neutral to EPS), interest expense of ~$1.12–$1.14 billion, an effective tax rate of ~22–23%, ~1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares outstanding, ~ $190 million pretax coffee JV/convertible preferred P&L costs, a full‑year free cash flow target of ~ $2.5 billion (Q2 FCF was $714 million), and pro forma management leverage of 4.4x at quarter end with an expected year‑end leverage of ~4.1x.Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.09B | 16.60B | 15.35B | 14.81B | 14.06B | 12.68B |
| Gross Profit | 9.92B | 9.00B | 8.53B | 8.08B | 7.32B | 6.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.63B | 4.19B | 3.38B | 3.97B | 3.12B | 4.01B |
| Net Income | 1.43B | 2.08B | 1.44B | 2.18B | 1.44B | 2.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 87.62B | 55.46B | 53.43B | 52.13B | 51.84B | 50.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.52B | 1.03B | 510.00M | 267.00M | 535.00M | 567.00M |
| Total Debt | 34.40B | 16.14B | 17.27B | 14.82B | 13.58B | 13.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 58.39B | 29.94B | 29.19B | 26.45B | 26.71B | 25.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.03B | 25.52B | 24.24B | 25.68B | 25.13B | 24.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.97B | 1.50B | 1.66B | 848.00M | 2.46B | 2.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.53B | 1.99B | 2.22B | 1.33B | 2.84B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.25B | -573.00M | -1.61B | -784.00M | -1.14B | 210.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.01B | -999.00M | -223.00M | -832.00M | -1.73B | -2.76B |
Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis
Negative
29.68
Price Trends
31.04
Negative
29.41
Positive
28.43
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.13
Negative
47.71
Neutral
51.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.46, below the 50-day MA of 31.04, and above the 200-day MA of 28.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KDP.
Keurig Dr Pepper Risk Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keurig Dr Pepper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $89.18B | 41.76 | 24.96% | ― | 20.37% | 34.79% | |
76 Outperform | $374.24B | 26.12 | 42.99% | 2.53% | 7.42% | 17.58% | |
74 Outperform | $188.68B | 18.09 | 50.36% | 4.21% | 5.62% | 38.93% | |
74 Outperform | $46.79B | 20.52 | 24.78% | 2.29% | 9.67% | 42.56% | |
63 Neutral | $12.39B | 23.10 | -889.19% | 0.54% | 10.71% | 12.43% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $41.21B | 30.46 | 5.64% | 3.10% | 27.48% | -12.53% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
30.79
-3.24
-9.53%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
188.64
70.33
59.45%
KO
Coca-Cola
88.82
20.62
30.24%
MNST
Monster Beverage
47.38
15.39
48.09%
PEP
PepsiCo
140.13
-6.24
-4.26%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
107.50
19.45
22.09%
Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keurig Dr Pepper Expands Board, Adds Independent Director
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. announced that its Board of Directors appointed Aaron Alt as an independent director and expanded the Board from nine to ten members, with these changes effective August 14, 2026. Alt will also join the Au...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keurig Dr Pepper Announces Retirement of Senior Accounting Officer
Neutral
Jun 25, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. announced that Angela Stephens, its Senior Vice President, Controller and Principal Accounting Officer, intends to retire after nearly 18 years with the company. Her departure is planned to follow the comple...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Keurig Dr Pepper announces leadership changes before split
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced leadership changes as it prepares to separate into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. in early 2027, with coffee unit head Rafa Oliveira set to depart at the end of July 2026 and CEO Tim Cofer temporari...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Keurig Dr Pepper Shareholders Back Leadership and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 16, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper shareholders re-elected all nominated directors to one-year terms and approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, signaling continuity in the company̵...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper, JDEP Establish Cross-Guarantee Financing Structure
Positive
May 22, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Maple Parent Holdings Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper, issued €3.0 billion of euro notes and $2.55 billion of U.S. dollar notes, while on March 6, 2026, KDP amended its term loan agreement to add a ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on its common stock, payable in U.S. dollars. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on July 10, 2026, to sharehold...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.