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Keurig Dr Pepper
(NASDAQ:KDP)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-0.62% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (strong revenue and free-cash-flow momentum) but is held back by recent profitability pressure and higher leverage. Technical signals are currently soft (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation is somewhat demanding at a ~30.5 P/E despite a supportive ~3.0% dividend yield. The latest earnings call is a net positive due to reaffirmed guidance and cash flow targets, though U.S. Coffee margin/cost headwinds remain a key swing factor.
Positive Factors
Revenue and cash-flow momentum
Strong top-line expansion combined with improving free cash flow indicates that KDP is converting demand into meaningful financial resources. This supports continued investment in brands, distribution and integration while providing internal funding capacity for debt reduction and other strategic priorities.
Negative Factors
Sustained margin compression
The sharp decline in net and operating margins shows that revenue growth is currently translating into weaker profitability. If cost inflation, mix effects or acquisition-related pressures persist, reduced earnings conversion could limit reinvestment, slow deleveraging and weaken the durability of returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and cash-flow momentum
Strong top-line expansion combined with improving free cash flow indicates that KDP is converting demand into meaningful financial resources. This supports continued investment in brands, distribution and integration while providing internal funding capacity for debt reduction and other strategic priorities.
Read all positive factors
Keurig Dr Pepper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Highlights profit generated from each business segment, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where operational efficiencies or challenges may exist.
Highlights profit generated from each business segment, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where operational efficiencies or challenges may exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.76B
Dividend Yield3.03%
Average Volume (3M)9.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.6
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth27.48%
EPS Growth-12.53%
CountryUS
Employees30,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding1,360,826,000
10 Day Avg. Volume12,073,836
30 Day Avg. Volume9,700,609
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.79Price Target Upside14.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.31B
Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a prominent beverage firm with operations spanning both the United States and global markets. The company structures its business across four primary divisions: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, an...
How the Company Makes Money
KDP primarily makes money by selling finished beverages and coffee-related products through retail and away-from-home channels. A major revenue stream is the Packaged Beverages business, where KDP sells branded and licensed ready-to-drink products...
Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted substantial enterprise-level strength driven by the JDE Peet's acquisition, robust performance in U.S. Refreshment Beverages (notably energy and CSDs), solid free cash flow and measurable integration progress (single invoice, organizational readiness, deleveraging). These positive outcomes materially outweighed the material but contained headwinds in U.S. Coffee—where elevated green coffee costs, hedging timing and pod category softness pressured sales and profitability. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and outlined remediation steps (cost synergies, lower-cost inventory flow-through, commercial initiatives), signaling confidence in recovery in H2 while acknowledging near-term commodity volatility and certain timing-related limitations to sustainability of some JDE Peet's Q2 upside.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth Driven by JDE Peet's
Consolidated net sales grew ~74.6%–75% in Q2 2026, driven by the April 1 acquisition of JDE Peet's; legacy KDP net sales (ex-JDE) grew 7.3% year-over-year (constant currency).
Negative Updates
U.S. Coffee Revenue and Profit Pressure
U.S. Coffee net sales declined 3.2% in Q2, with pod shipments down 11.6% as-reported (down 8.3% excluding Peet's reporting shift). Segment operating income fell 24.7%, driven by higher green coffee input costs, tariff impacts, unfavorable mix shifts and elevated marketing spend.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth Driven by JDE Peet's
Consolidated net sales grew ~74.6%–75% in Q2 2026, driven by the April 1 acquisition of JDE Peet's; legacy KDP net sales (ex-JDE) grew 7.3% year-over-year (constant currency).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
KDP reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for total company net sales of $25.9–$26.4 billion (including $8.5–$8.7 billion from JDE Peet’s), legacy KDP constant‑currency growth of 4–6% (with the high end most likely), and low‑double‑digit constant‑currency EPS growth (driven roughly by a 6–7 point contribution from JDE Peet’s plus 4–6% from legacy KDP), with an expected ~1 percentage‑point FX tailwind to net sales and EPS; the outlook now assumes an incremental 2% non‑cash depreciation headwind to 2026 EPS offset largely by a one‑time tariff‑refund cash benefit (net neutral to EPS), interest expense of ~$1.12–$1.14 billion, an effective tax rate of ~22–23%, ~1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares outstanding, ~ $190 million pretax coffee JV/convertible preferred P&L costs, a full‑year free cash flow target of ~ $2.5 billion (Q2 FCF was $714 million), and pro forma management leverage of 4.4x at quarter end with an expected year‑end leverage of ~4.1x.Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.09B | 16.60B | 15.35B | 14.81B | 14.06B | 12.68B |
| Gross Profit | 9.92B | 9.00B | 8.53B | 8.08B | 7.32B | 6.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.63B | 4.19B | 3.38B | 3.97B | 3.12B | 4.01B |
| Net Income | 1.43B | 2.08B | 1.44B | 2.18B | 1.44B | 2.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 87.62B | 55.46B | 53.43B | 52.13B | 51.84B | 50.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.52B | 1.03B | 510.00M | 267.00M | 535.00M | 567.00M |
| Total Debt | 34.40B | 16.14B | 17.27B | 14.82B | 13.58B | 13.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 58.39B | 29.94B | 29.19B | 26.45B | 26.71B | 25.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.03B | 25.52B | 24.24B | 25.68B | 25.13B | 24.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.97B | 1.50B | 1.66B | 848.00M | 2.46B | 2.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.53B | 1.99B | 2.22B | 1.33B | 2.84B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.25B | -573.00M | -1.61B | -784.00M | -1.14B | 210.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.01B | -999.00M | -223.00M | -832.00M | -1.73B | -2.76B |
Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis
Negative
32.20
Price Trends
31.04
Negative
30.73
Negative
28.99
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
43.61
Neutral
19.55
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.23, above the 50-day MA of 31.04, and above the 200-day MA of 28.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KDP.
Keurig Dr Pepper Risk Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keurig Dr Pepper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $82.55B | 39.39 | 24.96% | ― | 20.37% | 34.79% | |
76 Outperform | $370.45B | 25.72 | 42.99% | 2.45% | 7.42% | 17.58% | |
73 Outperform | $2.78B | 16.30 | 32.60% | 10.44% | -1.80% | -5.87% | |
69 Neutral | $171.43B | 16.48 | 50.36% | 4.61% | 5.62% | 38.93% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $41.76B | 30.55 | 5.64% | 3.03% | 27.48% | -12.53% | |
58 Neutral | $6.94B | 127.38 | 4.36% | ― | 82.86% | -35.81% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
30.37
5.85
23.87%
KO
Coca-Cola
85.65
21.26
33.02%
MNST
Monster Beverage
42.94
9.39
28.01%
FIZZ
National Beverage
30.32
-3.08
-9.22%
PEP
PepsiCo
125.89
-8.37
-6.23%
CELH
Celsius Holdings
26.75
-32.36
-54.75%
Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keurig Dr Pepper Names Russ Torres Coffee Unit CEO
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper said its board had appointed Russ Torres as CEO of its Coffee Operating Unit effective November 3, 2026, and designated him as future CEO and board member of Global Coffee Co., the planned standalone coffee ent...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Keurig Dr Pepper Exits Chobani Stake, Boosts Liquidity
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
On September 28, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper subsidiaries DPS Holdings Inc. and Mott’s LLP, along with other affiliates, completed previously announced transactions with Chobani, redeeming all of the company’s indirect equity interests in C...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Stability
Positive
Sep 16, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that its Board of Directors had declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on its common stock, payable in U.S. dollars. The dividend was scheduled to be paid on October 9, 2026,...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Keurig Dr Pepper Sells Chobani Stake, Streamlines Operations
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
On September 1, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper and Chobani announced transactions that will generate about $925 million in pre‑tax proceeds for the beverage group, including $800 million from selling KDP’s minority equity stake in Chobani and ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keurig Dr Pepper Expands Board, Adds Independent Director
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. announced that its Board of Directors appointed Aaron Alt as an independent director and expanded the Board from nine to ten members, with these changes effective August 14, 2026. Alt will also join the Au...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.