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Julius Baer Group
(OTC:JBAXY)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▼(-7.16% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals: strong profitability and improved leverage are offset by weak and volatile cash flow (including negative free cash flow in 2025). Technicals are a meaningful drag given negative MACD and the stock trading below key moving averages. Valuation and dividend support the score, while the earnings call was constructive on profitability and capital strength but flagged near-term flow headwinds and rising costs.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue and client scale
Record AUM and growth in recurring fee income support a durable wealth-management base tied to client relationships and portfolios. This recurring stream can provide earnings resilience and funding for continued investment, while expanding assets increase future fee-generation capacity.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
The large gap between reported profit and operating cash flow weakens confidence in earnings quality and cash conversion. Negative free cash flow also reduces internally generated financial flexibility, making sustained investment, distributions, or balance-sheet growth more dependent on business conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue and client scale
Record AUM and growth in recurring fee income support a durable wealth-management base tied to client relationships and portfolios. This recurring stream can provide earnings resilience and funding for continued investment, while expanding assets increase future fee-generation capacity.
Read all positive factors
Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.20B
Dividend Yield3.99%
Average Volume (3M)3.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth9.01%
EPS Growth44.33%
CountryUS
Employees7,390
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding1,030,008,900
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume3,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio-90.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.56
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.45B
Julius Baer Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory,...
How the Company Makes Money
Julius Baer primarily earns revenue from wealth and asset management activities tied to client assets and transaction activity. A core stream is recurring management and advisory fees charged on assets under management (AUM) for discretionary mand...
Julius Baer Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance in H1: record AUM, record net profit (like-for-like +32%), double-digit revenue growth (12%), expanded gross margin and improved cost-to-income driven by disciplined cost control and efficiency actions. Capital and liquidity positions are robust (CET1 18.5%, LCR 344%). However, a material caveat is the ongoing implementation of a revised risk and compliance framework that is creating headwinds to net new money and is expected to spill into 2027, along with some credit-related clean-up, one-off write-offs and an expected build of costs in H2 as investments accelerate. On balance, the positive financial momentum, capital strength and clear strategic execution outweigh the near-term derisking-related flow impacts and investment-driven cost increases.Positive Updates
Record High Assets Under Management
AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM used for margin calculations rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion.
Negative Updates
Derisking and Revised Risk & Compliance Framework Weighing on Flows
Implementation of the revised risk and compliance framework has created headwinds to net new money that are expected to carry into 2027 and only normalize in 2028; management reiterates 2026 net new money will be below 2025 and it is too early to quantify the 2027 impact.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record High Assets Under Management
AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM used for margin calculations rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reconfirmed its mid‑term targets and gave specific guidance: AUM stood at CHF 547bn (up 5% YTD; monthly avg CHF 526bn) and H1 net new money was CHF 5.7bn (2.2% annualised), but they expect 2026 net new money to be below 2025 with implementation headwinds from the revised risk & compliance framework spilling into 2027 (normalising in 2028); cost discipline remains a priority with a target cost/income ratio sustainably below 67% by 2028 (H1 cost/income 62.6%, exit May–June ~63%; H2 expected <67% on an 80 bps gross‑margin input), forward tax guidance of 18–20%, RM hiring of ~120 gross in 2026 with a slight net RM increase by year‑end (1,247 RMs at H1 end; 47 onboarded; 14 signed), capital and risk metrics maintained (CET1 ratio 18.5%, CET1 CHF 4.3bn, RWA CHF 23.3bn, risk density guidance 21–23%, Tier‑1 capital CHF 5.6bn, leverage exposure CHF 120bn, Tier‑1 leverage ratio 4.7%, LCR 344%), dividend policy unchanged (50% payout), and any further share buybacks remain subject to FINMA approval.Julius Baer Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.04B | 5.66B | 3.90B | 3.24B | 4.30B | 4.00B |
| Gross Profit | 4.51B | 3.83B | 3.90B | 813.40M | 3.85B | 3.87B |
| EBITDA | 1.53B | 1.15B | 1.30B | 758.60M | 1.39B | 1.51B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 729.37M | 1.02B | 454.00M | 949.60M | 1.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 116.16B | 107.61B | 105.07B | 96.79B | 105.64B | 116.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.45B | 25.22B | 13.78B | 16.22B | 18.91B | 25.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.12B | 8.22B | 20.60B | 6.05B | 14.05B | 16.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 108.81B | 100.37B | 98.24B | 90.62B | 99.35B | 109.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.35B | 7.24B | 6.83B | 6.16B | 6.29B | 6.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 123.82M | -140.87M | 1.87B | -1.17B | 1.72B | 123.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 426.74M | 95.31M | 2.13B | -929.10M | 1.91B | 320.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.61B | 1.03B | 2.86B | -1.69B | -5.37B | 764.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.12B | -188.00M | -409.40M | 79.30M | -3.48B | 370.10M |
Julius Baer Group Technical Analysis
Negative
18.85
Price Trends
17.73
Negative
17.61
Negative
16.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
42.82
Neutral
21.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBAXY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.05, above the 50-day MA of 17.73, and above the 200-day MA of 16.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JBAXY.
Julius Baer Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $43.54B | 11.73 | 61.73% | 1.34% | 8.79% | 28.59% | |
75 Outperform | $3.26B | 10.44 | 25.41% | 9.83% | ― | 0.94% | |
71 Outperform | $30.42B | 13.53 | 18.32% | 1.37% | 7.75% | 12.07% | |
68 Neutral | $15.87B | 20.82 | 7.42% | 4.23% | 8.39% | 181.11% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $31.17B | 13.28 | 18.41% | 1.93% | 6.57% | 48.88% | |
58 Neutral | $17.20B | 12.50 | 15.62% | 3.99% | 9.01% | 44.33% |
* Financial Sector Average
JBAXY
Julius Baer Group
16.56
3.40
25.86%
AB
AllianceBernstein
34.72
-1.89
-5.15%
AMP
Ameriprise Financial
489.80
17.53
3.71%
BEN
Franklin Resources
31.73
9.87
45.16%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
157.42
1.38
0.89%
NTRS
Northern
171.90
47.28
37.94%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.