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Hilltop Holdings
(NYSE:HTH)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
â–²(2.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened fundamentals—especially the sharp deterioration to negative TTM operating/free cash flow and the TTM revenue decline—despite otherwise acceptable profitability and a manageable leverage profile. The earnings call was a relative positive due to solid quarterly performance, strong capital levels, and ongoing buybacks/dividends, but guidance points to NIM peaking and highlights funding and credit risks. Technicals and valuation are broadly neutral-to-slightly supportive rather than decisive.
Positive Factors
Strong capital position and active capital returns
A CET1 ratio near 19% and ongoing buybacks/dividends create durable financial flexibility. High regulatory capital cushions losses, supports lending during stress, and enables shareholder returns without compromising solvency, giving management optionality for growth, M&A, or continued payouts over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative trailing‑twelve‑month operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flows constrain strategic flexibility: the bank may need to rely more on deposit funding or capital markets, limiting ability to invest, repurchase stock, or absorb credit shocks. If persistent, this weakens resilience through 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong capital position and active capital returns
A CET1 ratio near 19% and ongoing buybacks/dividends create durable financial flexibility. High regulatory capital cushions losses, supports lending during stress, and enables shareholder returns without compromising solvency, giving management optionality for growth, M&A, or continued payouts over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Hilltop Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the pre-tax profit contribution from each unit of the business, highlighting which segments drive earnings and which drag them down. Helps investors see whether Hilltop’s results come from diversified, steady operations or are concentrated in a few areas, and flags segments that may face operational, credit, or competitive stress. Persistent declines in pre-tax income for a major segment can be an early warning of trouble for overall profitability.
Shows the pre-tax profit contribution from each unit of the business, highlighting which segments drive earnings and which drag them down. Helps investors see whether Hilltop’s results come from diversified, steady operations or are concentrated in a few areas, and flags segments that may face operational, credit, or competitive stress. Persistent declines in pre-tax income for a major segment can be an early warning of trouble for overall profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHilltop Holdings (HTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.20B
Dividend Yield2.08%
Average Volume (3M)351.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth4.27%
EPS Growth33.70%
CountryUS
Employees3,616
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.64
Shares Outstanding58,530,197
10 Day Avg. Volume282,467
30 Day Avg. Volume351,105
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio-22.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside4.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.25B
Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilltop Holdings Inc., a Dallas, Texas-based entity established in 1998, delivers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, catering to both corporate and individual clients. Its operations are structured into three primary divisio...
How the Company Makes Money
Hilltop Holdings makes money through three primary operating segments. (1) Banking (PlainsCapital Bank): generates revenue mainly from net interest income—the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and...
Hilltop Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive financial picture: solid consolidated profitability, meaningful NII and margin expansion, disciplined capital returns and a strong broker‑dealer quarter that drove a 60% YoY increase in pretax income. Loan growth, an improved asset mix and significant fixed income gains were notable positives. Offsetting items include a small operating loss at PrimeLending, mortgage demand uncertainty from geopolitical and rate volatility, targeted charge-offs in the auto note portfolio, modest deposit outflows and the potential for margin volatility if competitive pressures or rate paths change. On balance, the positive operational and capital metrics outweigh the transitory and sector-specific headwinds.Positive Updates
Consolidated Profitability and EPS
Net income of approximately $37.8 million, or $0.64 per diluted share; return on average assets of 1.0% and return on average equity of 7.1% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
PrimeLending Operating Loss
PrimeLending reported a pretax loss of $2 million for the quarter; overall mortgage profitability remains pressured by affordability headwinds and the interest rate lock-in effect despite higher origination volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Profitability and EPS
Net income of approximately $37.8 million, or $0.64 per diluted share; return on average assets of 1.0% and return on average equity of 7.1% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a cautiously constructive 2026 outlook: it is modeling two additional Fed rate cuts this year (applied enterprise-wide) when forecasting net interest income and margin, while noting NIM is likely at or near peak and should be flat to modestly down; if there are no cuts, management said NII could be $8M–$10M higher. Key balance-sheet and capital metrics driving the guide include average HFI loans of $8.3B (expecting full‑year average loan growth of 4%–6%), average deposits of ~$10.6B (ending deposits $10.5B) with interest‑bearing cost at 249 bps and an achieved interest‑bearing deposit beta of 74% through the first 175 bps of Fed cuts (through‑the‑cycle beta assumed 60%–65%), average excess cash down about $1.1B, CET1 at 19.1%, tangible book value $31.97, and an ACL of $89M (106 bps of loans). Operational and segment assumptions include mortgage production of $9B–$10B (retaining $10M–$30M/month), modest seasonal volatility in core deposits, noninterest expense other‑than‑variable comp flat to +2%, and continued share repurchases (Q1 repurchases $47.5M; $125M authorization) alongside dividends ($11.8M returned in Q1). Financial context for the guidance: Q1 results included consolidated net income of ~$37.8M ($0.64 diluted), net interest income of $112M (up 6.7% YoY), PlainsCapital NIM ~3.38%, HilltopSecurities pretax income $15M on $116M revenue (12.7% pretax margin), total noninterest income $188M, noninterest expense $248M, and Q1 net charge‑offs of $4.3M (auto notes $3.6M).Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.63B | 1.54B | 1.50B | 1.35B | 1.85B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 1.27B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 1.21B | 1.80B |
| EBITDA | 226.76M | 236.77M | 174.21M | 168.75M | 188.75M | 528.70M |
| Net Income | 161.31M | 165.59M | 113.21M | 109.65M | 113.13M | 374.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.70B | 15.84B | 16.27B | 16.47B | 16.27B | 18.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.88B | 3.19B | 3.70B | 3.37B | 3.24B | 4.95B |
| Total Debt | 1.31B | 926.75M | 1.35B | 1.39B | 1.50B | 1.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.53B | 13.65B | 14.05B | 14.32B | 14.20B | 16.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.14B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 2.12B | 2.05B | 2.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -146.75M | -95.10M | 266.80M | 434.54M | 1.18B | 740.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -124.08M | -78.26M | 273.93M | 443.02M | 1.19B | 765.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -513.14M | -325.28M | 354.22M | 158.34M | -877.30M | -553.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -261.98M | -714.24M | -174.31M | -332.51M | -1.71B | 1.48B |
Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
37.92
Price Trends
37.75
Negative
37.21
Positive
35.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Positive
45.21
Neutral
26.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.42, above the 50-day MA of 37.75, and above the 200-day MA of 35.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HTH.
Hilltop Holdings Risk Analysis
Hilltop Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilltop Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.55B | 13.78 | 9.83% | 3.33% | 17.46% | 16.00% | |
78 Outperform | $2.25B | 11.11 | 10.66% | 2.97% | 3.87% | 16.71% | |
77 Outperform | $2.42B | 11.20 | 8.84% | 4.11% | 62.15% | 107.42% | |
76 Outperform | $2.35B | 12.05 | 10.08% | 2.20% | 9.05% | 3.81% | |
75 Outperform | $2.22B | 15.41 | 13.58% | 1.88% | 9.58% | 17.44% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $2.20B | 14.27 | 7.42% | 2.08% | 4.27% | 33.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
HTH
Hilltop Holdings
37.66
7.10
23.25%
BANR
Banner
66.32
-0.44
-0.66%
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services
64.25
8.45
15.14%
BUSE
First Busey
28.67
5.40
23.20%
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
49.05
6.69
15.78%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
75.37
-3.65
-4.62%
Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Hilltop Holdings Adds Veteran Independent Directors to Board
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Hilltop Holdings Inc. appointed veteran financial executives Dana Bober and Stephen Haworth to its board of directors as independent directors, expanding governance expertise drawn from long tenures at Ernst Young and private e...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings Declares Dividend, Advances Capital Return Plan
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Hilltop reported first-quarter 2026 income attributable to common stockholders of $37.8 million, or $0.64 per diluted share, down slightly from $42.1 million, or $0.65, a year earlier, as noninterest income fell despite improved performance across...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings Reports Solid Q1 2026 Earnings, Capital Returns
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Hilltop Holdings reported first-quarter 2026 results showing consolidated net income attributable to the company of $37.8 million and diluted EPS of $0.64, with returns on average assets and equity of 1.02% and 7.12%, respectively. Total revenue d...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilltop Holdings extends executive contract, CEO declines bonus
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Hilltop Holdings Inc. amended the employment agreement of Steve Thompson, extending its term from a prior expiration date of December 31, 2025 to a new end date of December 31, 2028, thereby signaling continuity in its senior ...
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings Delivers Strong Results, Boosts Capital Returns
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Hilltop Holdings reported stronger fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with income attributable to common stockholders rising to $41.6 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in the quarter and $165.6 million, or $2.64 per...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings posts strong Q4 2025 earnings and returns
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Hilltop Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 results highlighted by solid profitability at its core banking and securities units and continued capital returns to shareholders. PlainsCapital Bank generated $43.5 million in pre-tax income as net in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.