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Hallador Energy Company
(NASDAQ:HNRG)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(0.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by volatile and currently pressured fundamentals (TTM revenue decline, near-breakeven profitability, and negative free cash flow) and weak valuation support (very high P/E). Offsetting factors include a much-improved balance sheet and a moderately constructive earnings-call outlook driven by expanded forward contracting and progress on the Turtle Creek project, though technical signals remain mixed with longer-term trend weakness.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Flexibility
Very low leverage gives Hallador greater capacity to fund maintenance, pursue projects and absorb operating volatility. The stronger equity base also improves financing flexibility as the company develops new generation assets.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Volatility
Highly variable revenue and earnings make sustainable performance difficult to forecast. Dependence on delivered volumes, power prices, outages and production costs can create sharp swings in margins and weaken shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Flexibility
Very low leverage gives Hallador greater capacity to fund maintenance, pursue projects and absorb operating volatility. The stronger equity base also improves financing flexibility as the company develops new generation assets.
Read all positive factors
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$782.58M
Dividend Yield8.7%
Average Volume (3M)783.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)491.3
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth8.47%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees633
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding47,143,356
10 Day Avg. Volume591,897
30 Day Avg. Volume783,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)5.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio68.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.00Price Target Upside71.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$446.92M
Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hallador Energy Company focuses on extracting steam coal from its operations within Indiana, primarily supplying this fuel to the electric power generation sector. The company's mining assets include the subterranean Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Min...
How the Company Makes Money
Hallador Energy makes money primarily by selling thermal coal to electricity generators and other customers under coal supply arrangements. Revenue is recognized based on the volume of coal delivered and the pricing terms in customer contracts (wh...
Hallador Energy Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a mixed near-term operating picture but an overall constructive long-term outlook. Near-term results were negatively impacted by a planned major outage and some unplanned downtime, producing a Q2 net loss, negative adjusted EBITDA, and negative operating cash flow. Offsetting those short-term headwinds, management reported meaningful strategic progress: a materially enlarged and multiyear forward sales book (~$2.4B segment-level), strong capacity revenue growth (+70% YoY), significant advancement on the Turtle Creek gas project with costs coming in below prior guidance (<$800M) and a faster COD target (H2 2028), visible equipment and interconnection progress, DOE grant negotiation for Merom, and deliberate financing efforts to limit equity dilution. Management expects sequential operational improvement in Q3 and highlighted robust market demand for capacity and energy, supporting long-term revenue visibility.Positive Updates
Turtle Creek Project: Lowered Cost and Accelerated Schedule
Proposed 460 MW simple-cycle gas plant (Turtle Creek) now expected to cost below $800 million (~$1,700 per kW) with targeted commercial operations in H2 2028, an improvement from prior guidance of <$900M. Management expects equipment shipment in September and is targeting an FID and generator interconnection agreement in September pending MISO ERAS results.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Profitability Hit: Net Loss and Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 2026 net loss of $15.2 million versus net income of $8.2 million in prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2.9 million in Q2 2026 compared to positive $3.4 million a year earlier, reflecting outage-related impacts and higher purchased power costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Turtle Creek Project: Lowered Cost and Accelerated Schedule
Proposed 460 MW simple-cycle gas plant (Turtle Creek) now expected to cost below $800 million (~$1,700 per kW) with targeted commercial operations in H2 2028, an improvement from prior guidance of <$900M. Management expects equipment shipment in September and is targeting an FID and generator interconnection agreement in September pending MISO ERAS results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hallador guided that Turtle Creek is a proposed 460‑MW simple‑cycle gas plant with turbine equipment expected to ship in September, MISO ERAS interconnection results due mid‑August, a targeted FID and generator interconnection agreement in September, a moved COD to H2 2028 and total project costs now expected below $800 million (≈$1,700/kW) with financing structured to seek little-to-no equity dilution; operationally Merom completed a ~60‑day Unit 1 outage, invested $26.3 million in Q2 capex (Q2 total capex $26.3M) and expects sequential generation volume, reliability and availability improvement in Q3, with full‑year 2026 maintenance capex to moderate and remain consistent with 2025 levels excluding Turtle Creek; on the commercial/financial side they report forward energy & capacity sales of ~ $1.6 billion (segment forward sales ≈ $2.4 billion, consolidated contracted revenue ≈ $1.8 billion including $236.5 million of third‑party forward coal sales), accredited capacity revenue up 70% YoY to $18.6 million, total energy sales volume +17% (avg delivered energy price $41.69/MWh vs $52.66 prior year), Q2 electric sales $59.5M, consolidated revenue $101.5M, Q2 net loss $15.2M, adjusted EBITDA −$2.9M, cash used in operations $23.9M, liquidity $84.2M (cash $29M + $55.2M revolver capacity), $45M bank debt outstanding after drawing a $45M delayed‑draw term loan on May 15, and DOE negotiation of a $27.2M grant for Merom ELG work with some spending/matching expected in Q4 and into 2027–28.Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 450.47M | 469.47M | 404.39M | 634.88M | 361.99M | 247.67M |
| Gross Profit | -31.87M | 87.28M | 225.80M | 331.63M | 95.38M | 48.83M |
| EBITDA | 60.51M | 103.34M | -157.81M | 126.95M | 75.01M | 44.76M |
| Net Income | -912.00K | 41.87M | -226.14M | 44.79M | 18.11M | -3.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 468.04M | 437.46M | 369.12M | 589.78M | 654.08M | 353.98M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.98M | 10.07M | 7.23M | 2.84M | 6.43M | 2.55M |
| Total Debt | 46.78M | 39.07M | 53.05M | 94.54M | 102.20M | 107.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 277.40M | 277.63M | 264.83M | 321.19M | 439.05M | 167.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 190.33M | 159.83M | 104.28M | 268.59M | 215.02M | 182.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -50.46M | 11.92M | 12.57M | -15.94M | 149.00K | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.96M | 81.13M | 65.93M | 59.41M | 54.17M | 47.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.39M | -66.55M | -46.47M | -75.29M | -53.37M | -27.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 49.99M | -11.37M | -14.43M | 16.57M | -207.00K | -26.69M |
Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis
Positive
16.36
Price Trends
15.93
Positive
16.71
Negative
17.74
Negative
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
55.68
Neutral
75.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.08, above the 50-day MA of 15.93, and below the 200-day MA of 17.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HNRG.
Hallador Energy Company Risk Analysis
Hallador Energy Company disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hallador Energy Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hallador Energy Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.51B | 14.27 | 16.78% | 2.75% | -8.90% | -26.60% | |
59 Neutral | $876.76M | -15.95 | -8.89% | 4.69% | 2.78% | -174.05% | |
57 Neutral | $259.94M | 3.92 | -131.57% | 1.71% | -76.24% | -8.61% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | $316.43M | 17.49 | 4.00% | 2.55% | 4.74% | -45.86% | |
52 Neutral | $782.58M | 491.28 | -0.52% | 8.70% | 8.47% | ― | |
40 Underperform | $763.69M | -10.62 | -13.54% | 5.32% | -17.65% | -157.95% |
* General Sector Average
HNRG
Hallador Energy Company
16.90
-0.49
-2.82%
NC
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40.40
1.52
3.90%
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113.29
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14.76%
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10.23
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METC
Ramaco Resources
12.53
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AREC
American Resources
2.45
0.39
19.05%
Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Hallador Energy Amends Credit Agreement to Boost Flexibility
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Hallador Energy Company executed a Third Amendment to its Credit Agreement with Texas Capital Bank as administrative agent and a syndicate of lenders, modifying key financial covenant definitions tied to the facility establishe...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hallador Energy Amends Credit Agreement to Support Growth
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Hallador Energy Company amended its March 5, 2026 Credit Agreement with Texas Capital Bank and other lenders to revise financial covenants in line with its improving risk profile and recently executed offtake agreements. The chan...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hallador Energy Appoints New Chief Legal Officer White
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Hallador Energy Company appointed Matthew Bradford White as Chief Legal Officer, bringing in an experienced legal executive with a background in midstream energy infrastructure, technology, and corporate law, as well as military l...
Business Operations and Strategy
Hallador Wins DOE Support for Merom Plant Modernization
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Hallador Energy Company said its Hallador Power subsidiary was selected by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office to begin negotiations for up to $27.2 million in federal funding to moderni...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Hallador Energy Advances Merom Gas Project with Turbine Acquisition
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 30, 2026, Hallador Energy agreed to acquire about 460 MW of unused Siemens gas turbines, generators, a steam turbine and related equipment from Energy World Corporation for $350 million, with roughly $100 million of additional logistics and...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hallador Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Hallador Energy Company held its 2026 annual meeting in Lone Tree, Colorado, with 79.64% of outstanding shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders elected seven directors, including Brent K. Bilsland and Barbara Ann Su...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.