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Hallador Energy Company
(NASDAQ:HNRG)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-29.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/08/26
The score is anchored by a strengthened balance sheet and improving long-term contracted revenue visibility from the earnings update and new contracts/financing. This is offset by weak technical momentum, pressured cash-flow quality (negative free cash flow), and an unfavorable reported valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support).
Positive Factors
Long-term power contracts
The Duke power and capacity agreements materially improve revenue visibility through 2035 and extend contracted Merom output through 2040. Escalating pricing and stronger coverage should reduce exposure to spot-market volatility while supporting more predictable cash generation.
Negative Factors
Higher project leverage
The Turtle Creek financing materially increases leverage and carries higher interest costs than traditional project financing. Covenants, cash sweeps, and coverage tests could constrain financial flexibility until the plant begins operating and the company can refinance on better terms.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Long-term power contracts
The Duke power and capacity agreements materially improve revenue visibility through 2035 and extend contracted Merom output through 2040. Escalating pricing and stronger coverage should reduce exposure to spot-market volatility while supporting more predictable cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$528.95M
Dividend Yield8.7%
Average Volume (3M)991.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)326.2
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth8.47%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees633
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding47,143,356
10 Day Avg. Volume1,011,123
30 Day Avg. Volume991,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)5.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio68.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-26.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.50Price Target Upside68.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$446.40M
Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hallador Energy Company focuses on extracting steam coal from its operations within Indiana, primarily supplying this fuel to the electric power generation sector. The company's mining assets include the subterranean Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Min...
How the Company Makes Money
Hallador Energy makes money through a combination of (1) coal sales and (2) power generation-related revenues (where applicable), along with other ancillary energy-related income streams.
1) Coal production and sales (core revenue stream)
- Reven...
Hallador Energy Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a mixed near-term operating picture but an overall constructive long-term outlook. Near-term results were negatively impacted by a planned major outage and some unplanned downtime, producing a Q2 net loss, negative adjusted EBITDA, and negative operating cash flow. Offsetting those short-term headwinds, management reported meaningful strategic progress: a materially enlarged and multiyear forward sales book (~$2.4B segment-level), strong capacity revenue growth (+70% YoY), significant advancement on the Turtle Creek gas project with costs coming in below prior guidance (<$800M) and a faster COD target (H2 2028), visible equipment and interconnection progress, DOE grant negotiation for Merom, and deliberate financing efforts to limit equity dilution. Management expects sequential operational improvement in Q3 and highlighted robust market demand for capacity and energy, supporting long-term revenue visibility.Positive Updates
Turtle Creek Project: Lowered Cost and Accelerated Schedule
Proposed 460 MW simple-cycle gas plant (Turtle Creek) now expected to cost below $800 million (~$1,700 per kW) with targeted commercial operations in H2 2028, an improvement from prior guidance of <$900M. Management expects equipment shipment in September and is targeting an FID and generator interconnection agreement in September pending MISO ERAS results.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Profitability Hit: Net Loss and Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 2026 net loss of $15.2 million versus net income of $8.2 million in prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2.9 million in Q2 2026 compared to positive $3.4 million a year earlier, reflecting outage-related impacts and higher purchased power costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Turtle Creek Project: Lowered Cost and Accelerated Schedule
Proposed 460 MW simple-cycle gas plant (Turtle Creek) now expected to cost below $800 million (~$1,700 per kW) with targeted commercial operations in H2 2028, an improvement from prior guidance of <$900M. Management expects equipment shipment in September and is targeting an FID and generator interconnection agreement in September pending MISO ERAS results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hallador guided that Turtle Creek is a proposed 460‑MW simple‑cycle gas plant with turbine equipment expected to ship in September, MISO ERAS interconnection results due mid‑August, a targeted FID and generator interconnection agreement in September, a moved COD to H2 2028 and total project costs now expected below $800 million (≈$1,700/kW) with financing structured to seek little-to-no equity dilution; operationally Merom completed a ~60‑day Unit 1 outage, invested $26.3 million in Q2 capex (Q2 total capex $26.3M) and expects sequential generation volume, reliability and availability improvement in Q3, with full‑year 2026 maintenance capex to moderate and remain consistent with 2025 levels excluding Turtle Creek; on the commercial/financial side they report forward energy & capacity sales of ~ $1.6 billion (segment forward sales ≈ $2.4 billion, consolidated contracted revenue ≈ $1.8 billion including $236.5 million of third‑party forward coal sales), accredited capacity revenue up 70% YoY to $18.6 million, total energy sales volume +17% (avg delivered energy price $41.69/MWh vs $52.66 prior year), Q2 electric sales $59.5M, consolidated revenue $101.5M, Q2 net loss $15.2M, adjusted EBITDA −$2.9M, cash used in operations $23.9M, liquidity $84.2M (cash $29M + $55.2M revolver capacity), $45M bank debt outstanding after drawing a $45M delayed‑draw term loan on May 15, and DOE negotiation of a $27.2M grant for Merom ELG work with some spending/matching expected in Q4 and into 2027–28.Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 450.47M | 469.47M | 404.39M | 634.88M | 361.99M | 247.67M |
| Gross Profit | -31.87M | 87.28M | 225.80M | 331.63M | 95.38M | 48.83M |
| EBITDA | 60.10M | 103.34M | -157.81M | 126.95M | 75.01M | 44.76M |
| Net Income | -912.00K | 41.87M | -226.14M | 44.79M | 18.11M | -3.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 468.04M | 437.46M | 369.12M | 589.78M | 654.08M | 353.98M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.98M | 10.07M | 7.23M | 2.84M | 6.43M | 2.55M |
| Total Debt | 46.78M | 39.07M | 53.05M | 94.54M | 102.20M | 107.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 277.40M | 277.63M | 264.83M | 321.19M | 439.05M | 167.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 190.33M | 159.83M | 104.28M | 268.59M | 215.02M | 182.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -50.46M | 11.92M | 12.57M | -15.94M | 149.00K | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.96M | 81.13M | 65.93M | 59.41M | 54.17M | 47.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.39M | -66.55M | -46.47M | -75.29M | -53.37M | -27.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 49.99M | -11.37M | -14.43M | 16.57M | -207.00K | -26.69M |
Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis
Negative
16.36
Price Trends
14.22
Negative
15.20
Negative
16.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.84
Negative
35.71
Neutral
54.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.53, above the 50-day MA of 14.22, and below the 200-day MA of 16.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HNRG.
Hallador Energy Company Risk Analysis
Hallador Energy Company disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hallador Energy Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hallador Energy Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $46.44B | 23.06 | 41.48% | 0.66% | 9.45% | -6.51% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $1.71B | 5.48 | 18.17% | 10.14% | 50.81% | 107.08% | |
63 Neutral | $10.58B | 5.64 | 37.94% | 4.75% | 8.22% | 88.79% | |
63 Neutral | $16.23B | -84.93 | -14.09% | ― | 27.47% | -208.54% | |
53 Neutral | $528.95M | 326.16 | -0.52% | 8.70% | 8.47% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $20.19B | 25.28 | 25.38% | 1.94% | 12.70% | 54.89% |
* Utilities Sector Average
HNRG
Hallador Energy Company
11.22
-10.41
-48.13%
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138.37
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10.61
-3.76
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TLN
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343.12
-56.66
-14.17%
Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hallador Energy Secures Major Long-Term Power Contracts
Positive
Oct 8, 2026
On October 7, 2026, Hallador Power Company entered into a six-year power purchase agreement and a parallel capacity deal with Duke Energy Indiana, covering 200 MW of unit-contingent energy and an annual average of 225 Zonal Resource Credits from t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hallador Energy Secures Major Financing for Turtle Creek Project
Positive
Sep 17, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Hallador Energy Company and its Turtle Creek Gas subsidiary closed a $600 million senior secured term loan facility led by Kennedy Lewis Investment Management, with $550 million funded at closing and a $50 million delayed dr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Hallador Energy Amends Credit Agreement to Boost Flexibility
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Hallador Energy Company executed a Third Amendment to its Credit Agreement with Texas Capital Bank as administrative agent and a syndicate of lenders, modifying key financial covenant definitions tied to the facility establishe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.