Henderson Land (HLDCY) AI Stock Analysis

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Henderson Land

(Other OTC:HLDCY)

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Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:$4.00▲(6.67% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/07/26

The score is driven primarily by stable but mixed financial performance—2025 revenue and cash flow strength are offset by margin compression, declining net income, rising debt, and very low ROE. Technicals add support with a clear uptrend and positive MACD, though overbought signals (RSI/Stoch) cap the upside. Valuation is neutral-to-slightly negative due to a mid-20s P/E despite a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified property incomeMultiple property-linked income streams reduce reliance on any single development cycle. Recurring rent and management fees can provide a steadier earnings base, while development sales and investments preserve upside from project completions and broader portfolio growth.

Negative Factors

Margin and earnings pressureFalling margins and lower net income indicate that revenue growth is not translating proportionally into shareholder earnings. Persistent pressure would reduce the benefits of scale, weaken reinvestment capacity, and make results more dependent on project mix and completion timing.

Henderson Land (HLDCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $18.35B
Dividend Yield: 4.20%
Average Volume (3M): 128.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.3
Beta (1Y): 0.04
Revenue Growth: 45.10%
EPS Growth: 13.01%
Country: US
Employees: 10,078
Sector: Real Estate
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Real Estate - Diversified

Henderson Land Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HLDCY) operates as an investment holding entity, primarily engaged in real estate development and investment. Its business activities span both Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company's operations are str...

How the Company Makes Money

Henderson Land typically earns revenue and profits from multiple property-linked streams: (1) Property development sales: It develops residential and/or commercial projects and recognizes revenue when completed units are sold and delivered under appl...

Henderson Land Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is solid (revenue rebounded ~14% YoY in 2025) but profitability quality is weakening (net margin fell to ~21% from ~25% and net income declined YoY). Balance sheet is adequately capitalized with moderate leverage (~0.51 D/E) but 2025 debt increased sharply and ROE remains very low (~1.8%), limiting the score. Cash flow was strong in 2025 (~12.3B OCF/FCF) but historical volatility and weak/unclear conversion indicators temper confidence.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

60Neutral

Cash Flow

68Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	33.63B	25.74B	25.26B	27.57B	25.44B	23.89B
Gross Profit	10.67B	8.21B	9.09B	10.03B	10.26B	12.44B
EBITDA	12.22B	9.37B	10.92B	12.83B	7.52B	9.80B
Net Income	6.84B	5.64B	6.30B	9.26B	9.24B	13.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	537.44B	539.33B	531.24B	542.55B	529.79B	550.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.38B	23.12B	18.77B	22.11B	11.74B	11.34B
Total Debt	157.65B	163.89B	83.25B	161.69B	150.09B	100.28B
Total Liabilities	194.05B	198.48B	190.66B	198.45B	184.64B	198.13B
Stockholders Equity	325.59B	322.43B	322.15B	326.54B	327.95B	335.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.68B	7.50B	15.30B	14.46B	7.95B	-54.16B
Operating Cash Flow	18.86B	12.32B	15.30B	14.46B	11.13B	685.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.58B	-8.38B	-1.87B	16.00M	12.15B	-50.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.54B	-4.75B	-21.20B	-5.42B	-21.30B	52.05B

Henderson Land Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price3.75

Price Trends

50DMA3.44Positive

100DMA3.43Positive

200DMA3.64Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.10Negative

RSI68.64Neutral

STOCH87.91Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLDCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.58, above the 50-day MA of 3.44, and above the 200-day MA of 3.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLDCY.

Henderson Land Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

HLDCY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTMX	80Outperform	$3.67B	6.77	16.39%	2.18%	17.70%	7191.37%
JOE	70Outperform	$4.12B	33.88	15.84%	0.92%	11.10%	17.69%
HLDCY	69Neutral	$18.31B	21.32	2.11%	4.20%	45.10%	13.01%
BEKE	68Neutral	$20.92B	28.26	6.99%	1.54%	-11.19%	30.74%
Sector *	65Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HHH	65Neutral	$5.05B	28.90	3.92%	―	43.49%	-43.77%
CCS	41Neutral	$1.53B	14.11	4.25%	2.36%	-7.44%	-45.88%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HLDCY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
HLDCY	Henderson Land Development	3.75	-0.05	-1.32%
HHH	Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.	83.85	-3.20	-3.68%
JOE	St. Joe Co	71.82	13.75	23.67%
CCS	Century Communities, Inc	53.06	-4.72	-8.16%
BEKE	KE Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A	17.96	1.46	8.85%
VTMX	Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. ADR	37.87	7.86	26.20%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

Henderson Land AI Stock Analysis