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HCI Group
(NYSE:HCI)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$238.00
▲(27.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong recent financial performance and a much improved balance sheet (high margins/ROE and very low leverage), tempered by meaningful historical and cash-flow volatility (including the 2022 loss and a sharp TTM free-cash-flow decline). Valuation is a notable positive due to the low P/E, while technicals are moderately supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages. Corporate events are mildly positive but lower impact.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability
HCI’s recent profitability is strong, with high net and EBITDA margins alongside a very robust return on equity. This indicates effective underwriting and capital use in current conditions, creating internal capacity to support growth and strengthen the business over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Florida catastrophe exposure
HCI’s concentration in Florida homeowners insurance creates durable exposure to hurricanes and other catastrophe losses. Severe events can increase claims, reinsurance costs, and earnings volatility, making results more dependent on regional weather patterns and the availability of affordable protection.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability
HCI’s recent profitability is strong, with high net and EBITDA margins alongside a very robust return on equity. This indicates effective underwriting and capital use in current conditions, creating internal capacity to support growth and strengthen the business over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
HCI Group (HCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.54B
Dividend Yield0.78%
Average Volume (3M)177.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth22.83%
EPS Growth86.58%
CountryUS
Employees594
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)25.92
Shares Outstanding12,438,867
10 Day Avg. Volume178,796
30 Day Avg. Volume177,582
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$241.67Price Target Upside29.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)20.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$981.83M
HCI Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Tampa, Florida, HCI Group, Inc., originally established in 2006 as Homeowners Choice, Inc. before its name change in May 2013, is a diversified holding company. It conducts business across four main segments: property and casualty...
How the Company Makes Money
HCI makes money primarily through its property and casualty insurance operations and, to a lesser extent, through reinsurance and technology-related activities. (1) Insurance underwriting revenue: The core source of revenue is premiums collected o...
HCI Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operating and financial results: double-digit revenue growth, 15% pretax income growth, very low loss and combined ratios, substantial balance sheet strength, and active share repurchases. Management also highlighted new reinsurance capabilities and value creation from Exzeo. The primary risks discussed were a softening rate environment, uncertainty around final reinsurance placements, and weather/catastrophe exposure. Overall, the positives — robust profitability, capital strength, and clear capital deployment plans — materially outweigh the discussed risks.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Earnings Growth
Pretax income increased 15% year-over-year to $115 million; diluted earnings per share were $5.45. Management characterized this as the best first quarter ever and noted record earnings and record cash flows.
Negative Updates
Softening Rate Environment and Premium Stability Risk
Management acknowledged the primary market (notably Florida) is softening. While they reported premiums per policy roughly flat year-over-year and expect stability, a softer rate environment could pressure future pricing and margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Earnings Growth
Pretax income increased 15% year-over-year to $115 million; diluted earnings per share were $5.45. Management characterized this as the best first quarter ever and noted record earnings and record cash flows.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a target accident‑year combined ratio of 60% ±5% (HCI delivered ~57% for FY2025 and Q1 2026) and said premiums are expected to remain stable (gross premiums earned +~8% y/y; premiums in force $1.3B across four carriers; Tailrow >$120M in‑force). They highlighted strong financials and capital deployment priorities: pretax income +15% y/y to $115M, diluted EPS $5.45, total revenue +~12%, Q1 loss ratio 20%, stockholders’ equity doubled to >$1B, cash and fixed‑term securities just under $2B, book value per share ≈$85 (pro forma ≈$145 including Exzeo and real estate), debt‑to‑capital ~6%, total surplus +22% to >$0.5B, gross leverage <2.5, holding‑company liquidity ≈$200M, and a continued $80M buyback program (≈$37.5M deployed and 239k shares repurchased through April; net repurchases running ~2% of the company per quarter). They also noted reinsurance progress (adding Cayman‑domiciled Fortex Re alongside Bermuda‑domiciled Claddaugh, June 1 program in final phase) and ongoing pursuit of Exzeo‑like growth opportunities (Exzeo valuation ~$1.5B).HCI Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 952.18M | 900.95M | 749.45M | 550.01M | 491.99M | 402.55M |
| Gross Profit | 665.77M | 659.12M | 275.34M | 204.61M | 15.55M | 81.29M |
| EBITDA | 473.93M | 449.70M | 191.01M | 136.87M | -52.77M | 23.08M |
| Net Income | 310.37M | 299.00M | 109.95M | 79.03M | -58.51M | 1.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.53B | 2.23B | 1.81B | 1.80B | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 942.69M | 1.24B | 1.05B | 770.50M | 500.22M | 671.53M |
| Total Debt | 67.47M | 67.88M | 186.44M | 209.90M | 212.41M | 62.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.47B | 1.41B | 1.76B | 1.39B | 1.55B | 762.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.04B | 453.33M | 324.84M | 162.60M | 323.37M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 410.31M | 444.45M | 327.76M | 224.16M | -10.15M | 93.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 412.31M | 446.74M | 331.82M | 230.66M | -12.00K | 96.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -378.74M | 240.12M | -260.11M | 4.27M | -434.54M | 36.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -107.19M | -8.94M | -75.17M | 67.12M | 41.07M | 64.30M |
HCI Group Technical Analysis
Positive
187.08
Price Trends
187.58
Positive
180.78
Positive
169.55
Positive
Market Momentum
5.68
Negative
68.80
Neutral
84.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 187.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.93, below the 50-day MA of 187.58, and above the 200-day MA of 169.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCI.
HCI Group Risk Analysis
HCI Group disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCI Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
HCI Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
87 Outperform | $1.09B | 5.23 | 42.41% | 6.76% | 1.45% | 102.69% | |
81 Outperform | $1.36B | 5.83 | 38.46% | 1.58% | 5.37% | 92.17% | |
81 Outperform | $564.93M | 6.41 | 25.95% | 5.32% | ― | ― | |
80 Outperform | $2.54B | 7.87 | 30.79% | 0.78% | 22.83% | 86.58% | |
77 Outperform | $1.53B | 22.26 | 7.79% | 3.53% | 7.04% | -18.57% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $536.98M | 5.33 | 30.43% | 6.59% | 3.29% | 21.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
HCI
HCI Group
204.06
2.03
1.00%
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group
104.16
38.04
57.52%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
48.84
17.59
56.29%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
11.08
-0.02
-0.17%
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
36.82
13.29
56.48%
AII
American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
28.83
5.91
25.77%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.