Genius Sports Limited (GENI) AI Stock Analysis

923 Followers

Top Page

Genius Sports Limited

(NYSE:GENI)

62Neutral

Genius Sports Limited presents a mixed investment outlook. Strong revenue growth and strategic expansions are promising, supported by a stable financial foundation. However, profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the stock. The earnings call provides optimism for future growth, but the stock's technical and valuation metrics require careful consideration before investment.

Positive Factors

Financial Positioning

GENI's board approved a $100M buyback program, highlighting their strong financial positioning.

Market Expansion

Expansion into newly regulated markets like Missouri, Alberta, and Brazil offers top-line upside and meaningful incremental earnings.

Revenue Growth

Betting Tech revenue grew by 44%, including a 65% increase for revenue share contracts and 36% growth for contract minimums.

Negative Factors

Challenging Market Conditions

The company's U.S. business saw 51% revenue growth, which benefited from contract renewals despite a challenging NFL betting market.

Market Expectations

The negative reaction in the shares was driven by elevated expectations with investors increasingly bullish given GENI's lower sensitivity to negative sport outcomes and Media Tech bull case.

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.52B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)4.32M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.16

Revenue Growth22.90%

EPS Growth49.04%

CountryUS

Employees1,850

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength84

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.03

Shares Outstanding239,817,500

10 Day Avg. Volume6,415,710

30 Day Avg. Volume4,319,187

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.13

Price to Book (P/B)3.81

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-50.55

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$12.18

Price Target Upside23.03% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering12

Genius Sports Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGenius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns; and fan engagement widgets for digital publishers that offer live game statistics and betting-related content. The company is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes MoneyGenius Sports Limited generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by its data technology and services. The company monetizes its partnerships with sports leagues and federations by acquiring exclusive rights to collect and distribute their data. This data is then provided to sports betting operators, media companies, and sports organizations, who pay for access to this real-time information to enhance their offerings. Key revenue streams include data rights sales, technology and software solutions for sports betting operators, and digital media services. Significant partnerships with major sports leagues and organizations enhance its data portfolio, making it an attractive service provider for stakeholders in the sports ecosystem.

Genius Sports Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Genius Sports Limited shows strong revenue growth but continues to face challenges with persistent losses and negative free cash flow. The company maintains a low debt profile, which is positive, but must improve profitability and cash flow to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Neutral

Genius Sports Limited has shown significant revenue growth, with a 12% increase in the TTM compared to the previous year. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with negative EBIT and net income margins. The gross profit margin improved to 19.8% in the TTM, but the company still struggles with profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 in the TTM, indicating low reliance on debt financing. However, the company's equity ratio decreased slightly, indicating a potential risk if liabilities increase. The return on equity remains negative due to ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow from operations improved, but the company still reports negative free cash flow, indicating cash outflows exceed inflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, showing some ability to generate cash despite losses, but capital expenditures remain high.

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
462.54M	412.98M	341.03M	262.74M	149.74M	114.62M
	Gross Profit
91.51M	69.00M	2.86M	-213.43M	35.67M	25.31M
	EBIT
-84.52M	-74.16M	-181.20M	-573.29M	-20.07M	-35.18M
	EBITDA
-6.41M	5.64M	-106.37M	-540.96M	14.92M	-10.53M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-73.28M	-85.53M	-184.99M	-592.75M	-30.35M	-40.21M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
8.23M	100.33M	122.72M	222.38M	11.78M	8.23M
	Total Assets
375.30M	775.72M	773.34M	887.08M	391.00M	375.30M
	Total Debt
73.19M	14.70M	21.24M	88.00K	93.00M	73.19M
	Net Debt
64.96M	-85.63M	-101.48M	-222.29M	81.21M	64.96M
	Total Liabilities
137.85M	202.71M	196.52M	180.91M	530.43M	456.66M
	Stockholders Equity
237.44M	573.02M	576.82M	706.18M	-139.43M	-81.36M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-41.72M	-34.27M	-51.01M	-96.67M	-1.70M	-21.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
19.25M	14.88M	-3.46M	-63.31M	17.07M	2.49M
	Investing Cash Flow
-59.44M	-47.57M	-54.82M	-132.32M	-22.66M	-24.62M
	Financing Cash Flow
-7.60M	-596.00K	-21.00K	410.36M	10.10M	6.93M

Genius Sports Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price9.90

Price Trends

50DMA

10.08

Negative

100DMA

9.53

Positive

200DMA

8.74

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

>-0.01

Positive

RSI

45.87

Neutral

STOCH

33.27

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GENI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.47, below the 50-day MA of 10.08, and above the 200-day MA of 8.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GENI.

Genius Sports Limited Risk Analysis

Genius Sports Limited disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genius Sports Limited reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Genius Sports Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YELP	77 Outperform	$2.50B	18.83	19.74%	―	5.93%	29.17%
TBLA	74 Outperform	$1.11B	89.50	1.35%	―	16.62%	―
GENI	62 Neutral	$2.52B	―	-7.25%	―	22.90%	49.04%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$14.07B	6.89	-3.35%	3.68%	2.42%	-36.25%
IAC	58 Neutral	$3.02B	―	-15.07%	―	-18.11%	-516.37%
MAX	58 Neutral	$703.03M	36.01	-115.07%	―	148.62%	―
OB	50 Neutral	$268.76M	―	-14.61%	―	4.15%	-394.93%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GENI

Genius Sports Limited

10.03

4.53

82.36%

YELP

Yelp

38.55

1.19

3.19%

IAC

IAC/InteractiveCorp.

37.50

-6.48

-14.73%

MAX

MediaAlpha

10.33

-8.50

-45.14%

TBLA

Taboola.com

3.40

-0.86

-20.19%

Outbrain

2.75

-1.98

-41.86%

Genius Sports Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -10.08%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, margin improvements, and strategic expansions such as the NCAA partnership and new product launches. However, some concerns were noted regarding media revenue decline and cash flow seasonality. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives, indicating a strong position and optimism for future growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Group revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to $144 million, with the betting business growing 44% year-on-year to $107 million.

Significant Margin Improvement

Group adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled from $7 million to $20 million, with a margin expansion of 800 basis points to 14%.

Expanded NCAA Partnership

Extended partnership with NCAA through 2032, securing exclusive data rights for March Madness and all post-season tournaments at no out-of-pocket cost.

Launch of New Products

Introduced semi-automated offsite technology (SAOT) with the English Premier League and expanded BetVision for soccer, expected to cover 18,000 games.

Share Repurchase Program

Announced a $100 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in cash flow outlook and capital allocation strategy.

Negative Updates

Decline in Media Revenue

Media revenue decreased to $26 million from $35 million in the previous year, attributed to a high comparison base.

Cash Flow Seasonality

Traditionally see cash outflows in the first half of the year, with expectations for positive cash inflow for the full year.

Company Guidance

In the call, Genius Sports provided detailed guidance and updates on their financial performance and strategic initiatives for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in group revenue to $144 million, driven by a 44% growth in their betting business to $107 million. This contributed to a group adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, nearly tripling from $7 million the previous year, with a margin expansion of 800 basis points to 14%. They reiterated their 2025 guidance of at least $620 million in group revenue and $125 million in group adjusted EBITDA, reflecting 21% revenue growth and over 300 basis points of margin expansion. Additionally, Genius Sports highlighted the expansion of their NCAA partnership through 2032, securing exclusive data rights for key events without out-of-pocket costs, and the launch of their semi-automated offsite technology with the English Premier League. The company also announced a share repurchase program of up to $100 million to enhance capital allocation flexibility.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.