Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

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Greenbrier

(NYSE:GBX)

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Rating:54Neutral

Price Target:$43.00▼(-2.38% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/03/26

GBX’s score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality (persistently negative free cash flow) and financial-data reliability issues in the latest annual period, despite improved profitability. Technicals are also mixed-to-weak with negative MACD and price below longer-term averages. Offsetting these risks are a reasonable valuation with a ~3.1% dividend yield and a constructive earnings call featuring upbeat FY2027 guidance and improving backlog/leasing fundamentals.

Positive Factors

Recurring leasing revenueRapid lease-fleet expansion, very high utilization, and rising recurring revenue diversify Greenbrier beyond new-car orders. This should make earnings more resilient across railcar cycles, while the planned fleet growth provides an identifiable pathway for continued service and leasing revenue expansion.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative free cash flowRecurring negative free cash flow indicates that reported earnings have not consistently translated into internally generated cash. This can constrain self-funded growth, particularly while Greenbrier invests in its lease fleet, and increases reliance on liquidity, financing, or asset-sale proceeds over the medium term.

Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $1.29B
Dividend Yield: 3.00%
Average Volume (3M): 429.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
Beta (1Y): 0.55
Revenue Growth: -23.97%
EPS Growth: -60.98%
Country: US
Employees: 10,000
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Railroads

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. operates as a prominent player in the railway sector, dedicated to the engineering, construction, and distribution of railroad freight car equipment across North America, Europe, and South America. Its operations are or...

How the Company Makes Money

Greenbrier primarily makes money by selling newly manufactured freight railcars and related equipment to customers, with revenue recognized from fulfilling railcar orders (often under multi-unit contracts) for various railcar types. A second major re...

Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 25, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:15.01%|Next Earnings Date:Dec 31, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly constructive. Despite results below initial expectations, weak European demand, lower fourth-quarter operating efficiency, trade-related tank car uncertainty and a lower near-term leasing margin, Greenbrier highlighted stronger orders, the first sequential backlog increase since fiscal 2024, 23% lease fleet growth, 98% utilization, strong liquidity, improving rail market indicators and positive fiscal 2027 guidance. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Resilient Fiscal 2026 Performance

Greenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars, generated $2.5 billion in revenue, earned core earnings per share of $2.60 and achieved aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. Compared with fiscal 2022, the company delivered about 4,500 fewer units but produced aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher, core EBITDA 30% higher and core net earnings 76% higher.

Negative Updates

Macroeconomic Pressure and Results Below Initial Expectations

Geopolitical uncertainty, wars, shifting tariff and trade policies and higher interest costs caused customers to extend the timing of investment decisions in long-life freight railcars. Management said fiscal 2026 and fourth-quarter results were below what it expected at the start of the year and that industry activity remained at a low point in the cycle.

Company Guidance

For fiscal 2027, Greenbrier anticipates North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue between $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion, operating margin ranging from 7% to 7.5%, earnings per share between $2.75 and $3.75, and total capital expenditures, net of proceeds from equipment sales, ranging from $225 million to $275 million, with approximately 70% allocated towards growth of the lease fleet; leasing and fleet management revenue is expected to grow 12% to 15%, manufacturing gross margin is expected to be in the low double digits, aggregate gross margin is expected to be in the 14% to 15% range, and the lease fleet is projected to grow to somewhere between 22,000 cars and 23,000 cars, with deliveries expected to be stronger and back half weighted, and to do a little bit better than 2026 in terms of deliveries.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved meaningfully into 2024–2025 (net income rising to $204.1M in 2025), but revenue has been volatile and the 2026 financial statement datapoints (e.g., revenue and debt shown as $0) are major reliability red flags. Most importantly, free cash flow was negative in every year shown (2021–2026), limiting confidence in self-funding capacity despite better reported earnings.

Income Statement

54Neutral

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

32Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Aug 2026	Aug 2025	Aug 2024	Aug 2023	Aug 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.46B	2.46B	3.23B	3.54B	3.94B	2.98B
Gross Profit	333.70M	333.70M	600.40M	553.10M	442.10M	305.60M
EBITDA	261.10M	279.80M	517.80M	450.30M	312.10M	213.70M
Net Income	74.00M	79.00M	204.10M	160.10M	62.50M	46.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.43B	4.43B	4.36B	4.25B	3.98B	3.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	235.10M	235.10M	326.40M	351.80M	302.70M	559.10M
Total Debt	1.84B	1.84B	1.84B	2.17B	1.68B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	2.71B	2.71B	2.63B	2.68B	2.51B	2.39B
Stockholders Equity	1.57B	1.57B	1.53B	1.38B	1.25B	1.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-239.70M	-239.70M	-14.70M	-65.80M	-284.10M	-527.60M
Operating Cash Flow	39.60M	39.60M	265.70M	332.50M	78.00M	-146.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-91.10M	-91.10M	-203.10M	-323.30M	-286.80M	-227.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-31.30M	-31.30M	-101.70M	86.20M	-76.20M	244.90M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price44.05

Price Trends

50DMA41.15Positive

100DMA44.70Negative

200DMA47.73Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.07Negative

RSI68.63Neutral

STOCH91.77Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.13, above the 50-day MA of 41.15, and below the 200-day MA of 47.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Risk Analysis

Greenbrier disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

GBX against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	74Outperform	$48.96B	36.55	12.17%	0.40%	13.25%	16.83%
FSTR	64Neutral	$383.55M	31.08	7.74%	―	10.13%	-67.50%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TRN	63Neutral	$2.34B	7.71	29.87%	3.89%	-2.38%	248.96%
GBX	54Neutral	$1.29B	17.27	4.73%	3.00%	-23.97%	-60.98%
RAIL	50Neutral	$137.07M	-10.50	21.95%	―	-0.50%	47.71%
RVSN	39Underperform	$5.92M	-0.47	-70.18%	―	191.88%	51.03%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GBX and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
GBX	Greenbrier Companies	44.05	2.57	6.19%
RAIL	Freightcar America	4.20	-4.11	-49.46%
FSTR	L. B. Foster Company	41.65	14.35	52.56%
TRN	Trinity Industries, Inc.	31.91	7.05	28.33%
WAB	Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation	294.97	92.15	45.43%
RVSN	Rail Vision Ltd.	2.85	-8.83	-75.60%

Greenbrier Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Greenbrier, Atlas Holdings finalize governance cooperation agreement

Positive

Oct 26, 2026

On October 24, 2026, Greenbrier entered into a cooperation agreement with Atlas Holdings that reshaped its board composition and governance arrangements. The deal included voting commitments, limited sharing of non‑public information under conf...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Greenbrier Secures Major Global Railcar Orders in Q4

Positive

Sep 22, 2026

On September 22, 2026, Greenbrier announced that it had received orders for 3,400 new railcars valued at approximately $600 million during its fiscal fourth quarter ended August 31, 2026. The orders span multiple railcar types and end markets, unders...

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Greenbrier Announces Planned CEO Leadership Transition

Neutral

Aug 31, 2026

On August 31, 2026, Greenbrier announced that Chief Executive Officer and President Lorie Tekorius will retire from her roles effective January 6, 2027, following the company’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Tekorius, who has been with Greenbr...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2026

Greenbrier AI Stock Analysis