Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.01B
• Dividend Yield: 11.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 16.10%
• EPS Growth: -24.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 875
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 266,387,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,486,449
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,851,483
• PEG Ratio: -0.70
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.95
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: -0.40% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

Golub Capital Bdc shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by a solid balance sheet. The positive outlook from the earnings call further boosts confidence, despite challenges in cash flow management and technical indicators. The stock's valuation is appealing, with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, enhancing its attractiveness to income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Credit Quality

Credit quality has strengthened, with non-accruals improving to 0.9% of investments.

Funding Costs

Funding costs should improve prospectively since GBDC refinanced its liability stack, reducing the overall cost of debt.

Profitability

Overall profitability was solid with a 11.1% GAAP ROE.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Adjusted Core EPS was reported below expectations, impacted by non-cash interest expense from interest rate swaps.

NAV Decline

NAV/share modestly declined, impacted by realized/unrealized losses and a merger-related dividend.

Non-Accruals

GBDC reported four new non-accruals which increased from the previous period.

Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company that primarily invests in senior secured loans, including one stop and second lien loans, of private, middle-market companies. The firm is part of the Golub Capital platform, which provides financing solutions to companies across various industries. GBDC focuses on delivering flexible and reliable financing solutions to support the growth and strategic initiatives of its portfolio companies.

How the Company Makes Money

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of debt investments. The company's revenue model is centered around providing loans to middle-market businesses, which typically have revenues between $10 million and $100 million. GBDC earns interest income from these loans, which are often structured with favorable terms to ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the firm may generate fee income from originating and managing these loans. Significant partnerships with private equity firms and other financial institutions can contribute to its deal flow and investment opportunities, enhancing its ability to generate returns for its shareholders. The company's focus on senior secured loans helps mitigate risk, further contributing to its earnings stability.

Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Golub Capital Bdc demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth with a 100% gross profit margin and a 37.8% net profit margin. The balance sheet is solid with no debt and a strong equity ratio, but cash flow management needs improvement due to negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Golub Capital Bdc displays strong revenue growth and profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue shows a substantial increase compared to previous periods, with a notable Gross Profit Margin of 100%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin is robust at 37.8%, and the EBIT Margin stands at 87.8%, reflecting excellent operational efficiency. Revenue growth from the previous year is impressive at 20.2%, showing positive momentum in the business.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Golub Capital Bdc is relatively strong with a high Equity Ratio of 44.6%, indicating a stable financial structure. The company has eliminated its total debt, resulting in a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0, showcasing prudent financial management. The Return on Equity is solid at 7.3%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' equity. However, the rapid growth in assets might pose future financing challenges.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates mixed results. While the Free Cash Flow has decreased significantly, showing a negative growth rate, the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. However, the company has improved its cash reserves, and the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is currently negative, indicating the need for better cash utilization strategies.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
567.21M	475.73M	603.09M	387.80M	307.13M	298.95M
	Gross Profit
300.65M	272.57M	603.09M	387.80M	307.13M	298.95M
	EBIT
293.91M	274.36M	443.38M	285.57M	233.41M	213.92M
	EBITDA
293.91M	274.36M	443.38M	285.57M	233.41M	213.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
294.75M	273.79M	258.63M	153.44M	340.28M	54.87M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
116.93M	131.16M	69.83M	124.14M	181.09M	26.30M
	Total Assets
8.95B	8.71B	5.73B	5.68B	5.16B	4.44B
	Total Debt
4.81B	4.60B	3.12B	3.08B	2.55B	2.02B
	Net Debt
4.69B	4.47B	3.05B	2.95B	2.37B	1.99B
	Total Liabilities
4.91B	4.69B	3.19B	3.14B	2.58B	2.05B
	Stockholders Equity
4.04B	4.01B	2.55B	2.54B	2.58B	2.40B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-148.40M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M	187.68M
	Operating Cash Flow
-148.40M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M	187.68M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	0.00	0.00	1.26B	1.59B	706.04M
	Financing Cash Flow
-65.19M	-124.24M	-235.55M	353.13M	366.85M	-87.81M

Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.48, above the 50-day MA of 14.52, and above the 200-day MA of 14.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBDC.

Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSLX	74 Outperform	$2.13B	12.02	11.06%	8.11%	5.00%	-24.20%
MAIN	74 Outperform	$4.92B	9.39	19.31%	5.33%	51.80%	12.05%
GBDC	71 Outperform	$4.01B	13.38	8.88%	11.04%	16.10%	-24.30%
GSBD	71 Outperform	$1.32B	26.12	3.27%	14.79%	-28.04%	-69.52%
HTGC	70 Outperform	$3.13B	13.37	11.30%	8.99%	-7.29%	-38.60%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.82B	9.87	7.67%	17000.34%	12.39%	-5.85%
FSK	58 Neutral	$5.93B	11.14	7.97%	13.23%	-16.13%	-15.88%

Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events

Golub Capital BDC Restructures Debt to Enhance Flexibility

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. has unveiled a strategic shift in its debt funding structure, completing a $2.2 billion debt securitization to lower borrowing costs and enhance investment flexibility. By redeeming existing debt and adjusting bank lending relationships, GBDC aims to extend debt maturities and increase liquidity for new investments, benefiting its shareholders with reduced costs and sustained credit ratings. This move highlights Golub Capital’s commitment to delivering market-leading returns and maintaining its leadership in the debt capital markets.