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Shift4 Payments
(NYSE:FOUR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▼(-18.75% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial execution (strong free cash flow and improved operating profitability) and a constructive earnings outlook with clear, quantified guidance despite near-term headwinds. These positives are tempered by meaningful leverage, thin TTM net margins, technically weak price action versus key moving averages, and a high P/E that leaves less margin for error.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue and Payment Volume Growth
Rapid payment-volume expansion and the upgraded scale of FY26 guidance indicate continued merchant adoption and stronger transaction economics. Because revenue is tied to processed volume, sustained growth can increase operating leverage and reinforce Shift4’s position across its target verticals.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
High leverage reduces financial flexibility and leaves less room to absorb weaker transaction volumes or unexpected costs. The need to remain below a stated leverage ceiling can also constrain buybacks and other capital allocation, making deleveraging important to future resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue and Payment Volume Growth
Rapid payment-volume expansion and the upgraded scale of FY26 guidance indicate continued merchant adoption and stronger transaction economics. Because revenue is tied to processed volume, sustained growth can increase operating leverage and reinforce Shift4’s position across its target verticals.
Read all positive factors
Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)61.1
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth32.44%
EPS Growth-78.82%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding78,960,120
10 Day Avg. Volume1,621,952
30 Day Avg. Volume1,998,778
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.83
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.83Price Target Upside12.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)5.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.50B
Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shift4 Payments, Inc. delivers comprehensive integrated payment processing and technology solutions across the United States. The company facilitates omni-channel card acceptance and processing, encompassing traditional credit and debit cards, con...
How the Company Makes Money
Shift4 primarily makes money by earning fees tied to the payment volume it processes for merchants. The company’s core revenue model is based on (1) per-transaction economics and (2) recurring platform/service fees, with revenue generally scaling ...
Shift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operating and financial picture: notable outperformance versus guidance, double‑digit organic growth, high margins (46% adjusted EBITDA) and accelerating international momentum. Key strategic initiatives (Shift4 One, Shift4 Dine, Global Blue integration, product investments) are advancing and should drive future expansion. Near‑term headwinds include travel disruption from the Middle East conflict, FX translation effects, elevated interest expense from recent debt actions, and deliberate investment costs to scale Global Blue internationally. Management has provided transparent guidance adjustments and a plan to manage leverage. Overall, the positives (revenue/EBITDA beats, margin strength, international scale, product innovation and disciplined capital allocation) materially outweigh the near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth and Beats
Gross revenue of $1.29B, up 34% YoY, and gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $624M, up 51% YoY; both results came in above guidance.
Negative Updates
Middle East Travel Disruption Headwind
Conflict in the Middle East weighed on inbound travel and tax‑free shopping corridors; management baked an approximate $25M Q3 impact and previously modeled a ~$20M Q2 headwind (Q2 came in modestly better than that estimate).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth and Beats
Gross revenue of $1.29B, up 34% YoY, and gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $624M, up 51% YoY; both results came in above guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided Q3 GRLNF of approximately $650M (which embeds an estimated ~$25M Middle East travel disruption impact) with gross revenue ~$1.3B, adjusted EBITDA $310M and adjusted free cash flow $180M; Q4 GRLNF is $661M–$711M with adjusted EBITDA $327M–$352M and adjusted free cash flow $176M–$186M (implying ~53%–54% conversion for the quarter). Full‑year 2026 guidance is GRLNF $2.48B–$2.53B (up 25%–28% YoY; 24%–27% FX‑neutral), adjusted EBITDA $1.15B–$1.18B (up 19%–22% YoY), adjusted free cash flow $465M–$475M (~40% conversion of adjusted EBITDA) and non‑GAAP EPS $5.15–$5.35; management noted a ~$20M FX translation headwind and that the $25M Q3 travel impact plus ~$20M FX account for most of the ~$40M midpoint revision. They also reiterated capital‑allocation and balance‑sheet parameters: pro‑forma net leverage ~3.7x (not to exceed 3.75x), expect deleverage to the low‑3s by year‑end, raised a $1B Term Loan B to prefund the Aug‑2027 convertible, extended the revolver to 2031, repurchased ~650k shares in Q2 at ~$38 (cumulative $625M of a $1B buyback, ~11% non‑GAAP share‑count reduction).Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.78B | 4.18B | 3.33B | 2.56B | 1.99B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.72B | 1.43B | 973.10M | 687.80M | 470.20M | 278.40M |
| EBITDA | 912.80M | 817.00M | 356.80M | 366.20M | 268.50M | 55.30M |
| Net Income | 90.10M | 119.00M | 229.60M | 86.20M | 75.10M | -48.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.70B | 8.71B | 5.04B | 3.39B | 2.55B | 2.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 356.00M | 964.00M | 1.21B | 455.00M | 776.50M | 1.23B |
| Total Debt | 4.57B | 4.62B | 2.88B | 1.78B | 1.77B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.96B | 6.76B | 4.02B | 2.52B | 2.07B | 1.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.62B | 1.44B | 806.60M | 653.30M | 347.30M | 272.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 513.50M | 499.00M | 310.60M | 250.70M | -104.60M | -56.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 592.80M | 634.00M | 500.30M | 388.30M | 275.40M | 29.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.95B | -3.00B | -691.10M | -301.90M | -516.80M | -196.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -88.90M | 2.06B | 929.20M | -152.20M | -214.60M | 471.20M |
Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis
Negative
48.00
Price Trends
41.46
Negative
43.90
Negative
47.00
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
45.71
Neutral
58.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.54, above the 50-day MA of 41.46, and above the 200-day MA of 47.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOUR.
Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis
Shift4 Payments disclosed 89 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $4.25B | 21.83 | 37.65% | 1.31% | 57.03% | 38.31% | |
71 Outperform | $2.42B | 50.64 | 7.27% | ― | 6.31% | -48.91% | |
70 Outperform | $5.64B | 25.40 | 15.06% | ― | 7.03% | -8.05% | |
66 Neutral | $3.06B | 61.12 | 5.65% | ― | 32.44% | -78.82% | |
66 Neutral | $2.45B | 9.05 | 23.02% | ― | 5.76% | -3.78% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $384.48M | -2.14 | -32.64% | ― | 8.84% | -62.58% |
* Technology Sector Average
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
38.79
-37.97
-49.47%
ACIW
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55.88
5.67
11.29%
EEFT
Euronet Worldwide
65.59
-14.97
-18.58%
RPAY
Repay Holdings
4.36
-0.69
-13.66%
PAYO
Payoneer
7.15
0.96
15.51%
DLO
DLocal
15.06
-0.06
-0.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.