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Expedia
(NASDAQ:EXPE)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$301.00
▼(-10.94% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/09/26
EXPE scores highest on financial strength and earnings momentum (improving profitability, exceptional recent cash flow, and a positive beat-and-raise earnings call). The overall score is pulled down by weak near-term technicals (price below key short-term averages with bearish momentum). Valuation is reasonable at ~16.5x earnings but the dividend yield is modest, making fundamentals—not income—the primary support.
Positive Factors
Profitability Expansion
Sustained margin expansion shows Expedia is converting scale, pricing and efficiency gains into stronger earnings. Higher profitability provides greater capacity to fund product investment, withstand demand variability and generate shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Leverage
Although debt has declined materially, leverage remains significant relative to the thin equity base. This can constrain flexibility during travel downturns, increase sensitivity to operating volatility and compete with investments or shareholder distributions for cash.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Expansion
Sustained margin expansion shows Expedia is converting scale, pricing and efficiency gains into stronger earnings. Higher profitability provides greater capacity to fund product investment, withstand demand variability and generate shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
Expedia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showcasing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Highlights income from different business areas, showcasing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExpedia (EXPE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.77B
Dividend Yield0.67%
Average Volume (3M)1.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth12.00%
EPS Growth92.75%
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.68
Shares Outstanding114,495,890
10 Day Avg. Volume1,501,522
30 Day Avg. Volume1,592,967
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.77
Price to Book (P/B)27.66
Price to Sales (P/S)2.41
P/FCF Ratio11.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$341.42Price Target Upside1.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering29
EPS Forecast (FY)20.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.20B
Expedia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to...
How the Company Makes Money
Expedia primarily makes money by facilitating travel bookings and charging travel suppliers (and in some cases travelers) for access to its demand, technology, and distribution. Key revenue streams include: (1) Agency model (merchant of record is ...
Expedia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive view: strong Q2 operational and financial outperformance (bookings +12%, revenue +14%, adjusted EBITDA +23%), robust cash generation and capital returns, continued B2B momentum, and product/AI milestones that support future growth. Management raised full‑year guidance and increased margin expansion targets. Offsetting factors included regional softness in Europe, near‑term margin moderation in Q3 due to lapping and FX, B2B investment-related cost pressure, SEO softness, and tougher second-half comps. Overall, the positives (beat results, raised guidance, strong cash flow and strategic progress) materially outweigh the noted headwinds.Positive Updates
Top-line and Profitability Outperformance
Gross bookings grew 12% year-over-year, revenue increased 14% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA rose 23% YoY; adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.1 billion in Q2 with a margin of 25.9% (nearly 200 basis points improvement YoY).
Negative Updates
Regional Weakness in Europe
Europe remained pressured, particularly outbound travel, as macro headwinds and reduced air capacity weighed on demand (Europe growth described as low single digits vs stronger U.S. trends).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line and Profitability Outperformance
Gross bookings grew 12% year-over-year, revenue increased 14% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA rose 23% YoY; adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.1 billion in Q2 with a margin of 25.9% (nearly 200 basis points improvement YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Expedia raised its outlook, guiding Q3 gross bookings of $32.2B–$32.8B (≈+5%–7% YoY, ~1 point FX headwind at current rates), Q3 revenue of $4.65B–$4.75B (≈+5%–8% YoY, ~1 point FX tailwind), and Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $1.51B–$1.56B (implying a 32.5%–32.8% margin, with margin expansion moderating in Q3 due to lapping prior cost actions, B2B investments and FX), while raising full‑year guidance to gross bookings of $129.5B–$130.8B (+8%–9% YoY) and revenue of $16.05B–$16.22B (+9%–10% YoY) (full‑year FX tailwinds of ~1 point to bookings and ~2 points to revenue) and now expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 150–175 basis points versus last year (with Q4 margin improvement expected to pick up, roughly ~50 bps at the midpoint).Expedia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
87
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.70B | 14.73B | 13.69B | 12.84B | 11.67B | 8.60B |
| Gross Profit | 14.20B | 13.28B | 12.25B | 11.27B | 10.01B | 7.08B |
| EBITDA | 3.92B | 2.78B | 2.63B | 2.07B | 1.61B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | 2.04B | 1.29B | 1.23B | 797.00M | 352.00M | 12.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.06B | 24.45B | 22.39B | 21.64B | 21.56B | 21.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.13B | 7.30B | 4.48B | 4.25B | 4.14B | 4.31B |
| Total Debt | 5.68B | 6.67B | 6.53B | 6.57B | 6.55B | 8.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.59B | 21.91B | 19.59B | 18.86B | 17.83B | 18.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.21B | 1.28B | 1.56B | 1.53B | 2.28B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.04B | 3.11B | 2.33B | 1.84B | 2.78B | 3.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.22B | 3.88B | 3.08B | 2.69B | 3.44B | 3.75B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -531.00M | -1.26B | -800.00M | -580.00M | -931.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.01B | -2.14B | -1.75B | -2.10B | -2.62B | -973.00M |
Expedia Technical Analysis
Negative
337.97
Price Trends
294.61
Negative
265.55
Positive
257.97
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
34.78
Neutral
4.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXPE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 337.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 318.90, above the 50-day MA of 294.61, and above the 200-day MA of 257.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXPE.
Expedia Risk Analysis
Expedia disclosed 10 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Expedia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Expedia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $108.94B | 39.49 | 33.38% | ― | 14.20% | 6.18% | |
75 Outperform | $145.23B | 19.89 | -96.70% | 0.89% | 12.85% | 56.24% | |
73 Outperform | $27.05B | 5.77 | 19.31% | 0.45% | 19.28% | 87.04% | |
69 Neutral | $35.77B | 16.46 | 184.84% | 0.67% | 12.00% | 92.75% | |
62 Neutral | $5.23B | 152.65 | -14.56% | ― | 6.86% | -59.99% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
47 Neutral | $1.09B | 227.13 | 0.76% | 12.33% | -4.37% | -92.21% |
* General Sector Average
EXPE
Expedia
274.55
58.46
27.05%
TCOM
Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR
40.50
-31.90
-44.06%
MMYT
Makemytrip
53.90
-43.99
-44.94%
BKNG
Booking Holdings
180.30
-41.08
-18.56%
TRIP
TripAdvisor
9.09
-8.68
-48.85%
ABNB
Airbnb
174.54
50.73
40.97%
Expedia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expedia boosts outlook after strong second-quarter performance
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Expedia Group reported strong second‑quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with gross bookings up 12% year on year and revenue rising 14%, propelled by 21% growth in B2B bookings and 23% growth in B2B revenue...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Expedia Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 17, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. reported that a quorum was present, with 158,470,887 total votes represented across its common and Class B common stock. Shareholders elected 11 directors, inclu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.