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Etsy
(NYSE:ETSY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
▲(40.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
ETSY scores as a balanced, moderate-risk setup: strong free cash flow and reaffirmed high EBITDA-margin guidance support the fundamentals, while negative shareholder equity and recently pressured growth keep financial risk elevated. Technically, the stock is in an uptrend above key moving averages, helping sentiment, but valuation (P/E ~23.5) leaves less margin for execution slips given ongoing demand and macro uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained high operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility to fund product investment, buybacks and opportunistic M&A without needing external capital. Over 2-6 months this underpins resilience versus cyclical demand swings and supports capital allocation choices.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholder equity
Persistently negative equity constrains balance-sheet flexibility and makes conventional leverage metrics misleading. Over a multi-month horizon this raises downside risk if demand softens, limiting ability to fund shocks or large strategic moves without altering capital structure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained high operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility to fund product investment, buybacks and opportunistic M&A without needing external capital. Over 2-6 months this underpins resilience versus cyclical demand swings and supports capital allocation choices.
Read all positive factors
Etsy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and contributing most to Etsy's financial performance.
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and contributing most to Etsy's financial performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEtsy (ETSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.7
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth1.78%
EPS Growth75.71%
CountryUS
Employees2,375
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.89
Shares Outstanding94,896,230
10 Day Avg. Volume2,371,248
30 Day Avg. Volume2,809,985
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.91
Price to Book (P/B)-4.96
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio8.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.52Price Target Upside20.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)3.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.78B
Etsy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its primary marketplace is dedicated to unique and handcrafted items, while its Depop division focuses on the resale of apparel. The co...
How the Company Makes Money
Etsy primarily makes money by charging fees to sellers for using its marketplace and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Marketplace revenue: Etsy charges sellers listing fees to post items for sale and transaction fees when items s...
Etsy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone: management presented multiple concrete improvements across growth, monetization and product (notably app momentum, active buyer stabilization, take rate expansion and AI experiments), strengthened cash conversion and capital returns, and an improved near-term outlook. However, several important caveats temper the enthusiasm — purchase frequency and habitual buyers remain below prior-year levels, some gains were aided by temporary FX and tariff-related factors, divestitures complicate comparability, AI and new discovery channels are still nascent, and regulatory or macro risks remain. On balance, progress on core operational levers and financial strength outweighs the remaining execution and macro uncertainties.Positive Updates
Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) Growth
Etsy Marketplace GMS of $2.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 5.5% year-over-year (currency-neutral growth 3.6%); two consecutive quarters of YoY Etsy marketplace growth and a 540 basis point improvement versus Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
Frequency and Habitual Buyer Metrics
Purchase frequency remained modestly lower year-over-year; repeat and habitual buyer counts are still down YoY (though showing sequential stabilization) and frequency has not yet meaningfully inflected.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) Growth
Etsy Marketplace GMS of $2.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 5.5% year-over-year (currency-neutral growth 3.6%); two consecutive quarters of YoY Etsy marketplace growth and a 540 basis point improvement versus Q4 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Etsy guided Q2 Marketplace GMS of $2.48–$2.53 billion (about +3%–5% YoY), Q2 take rate of ~25.7% and Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%–29%; for the full year they now expect low single‑digit GMS growth, a full‑year take rate roughly in line with the first half, and a full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%–30%, with management expecting year‑over‑year GMS growth in each quarter of 2026. For context, Q1 FY26 results included Etsy Marketplace GMS of $2.5B (+5.5% YoY), revenue $631M (take rate 25.7%), adjusted EBITDA $185M (29.3% margin), app GMS ≈47% of total (↑240 bps YoY; app GMS +11.2% YoY), TTM active buyers 86.6M, gross buyer additions 11.9M (+4.8% YoY), TTM GMS per active buyer $122, active sellers 5.6M (+3.3%), cash and investments $1.6B, net cash from ops $102.5M, 50% conversion of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow, $145M of share repurchases (≈2.7M shares) with $828M repurchase capacity remaining, and a pending Depop sale for $1.2B expected to close by end of Q3 2026.Etsy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
27
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.86B | 2.88B | 2.81B | 2.75B | 2.57B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.06B | 2.07B | 2.03B | 1.92B | 1.82B | 1.67B |
| EBITDA | 524.32M | 367.02M | 532.65M | 398.19M | -551.11M | 555.81M |
| Net Income | 284.76M | 162.98M | 303.28M | 307.57M | -694.29M | 493.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.68B | 2.83B | 2.42B | 2.69B | 2.63B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.43B | 1.62B | 1.04B | 1.15B | 1.17B | 984.61M |
| Total Debt | 3.08B | 3.08B | 2.39B | 2.39B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.82B | 3.93B | 3.18B | 3.23B | 3.18B | 3.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.14B | -1.10B | -758.87M | -543.72M | -547.27M | 628.62M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 672.64M | 638.75M | 708.97M | 665.61M | 646.41M | 621.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 724.97M | 693.41M | 752.47M | 705.51M | 683.61M | 651.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 36.24M | 32.08M | -53.10M | -73.31M | -30.02M | -1.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -123.54M | -169.88M | -787.17M | -656.53M | -506.48M | 452.75M |
Etsy Technical Analysis
Positive
61.90
Price Trends
69.07
Positive
62.25
Positive
61.03
Positive
Market Momentum
3.27
Negative
68.57
Neutral
93.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ETSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.52, below the 50-day MA of 69.07, and above the 200-day MA of 61.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ETSY.
Etsy Risk Analysis
Etsy disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Etsy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Etsy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $6.48B | 56.22 | 12.64% | ― | 28.57% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $51.10B | 25.01 | 44.12% | 1.38% | 13.15% | 5.89% | |
67 Neutral | $7.64B | 28.74 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
66 Neutral | $8.32B | 43.30 | 44.82% | ― | 6.14% | -32.48% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $797.47M | ― | -36.11% | ― | 10.25% | 70.25% | |
53 Neutral | $166.77M | -15.00 | -12.05% | ― | 0.81% | 44.38% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ETSY
Etsy
85.74
29.70
53.00%
EBAY
eBay
112.76
36.82
48.48%
CHWY
Chewy
21.21
-16.75
-44.13%
TDUP
thredUP
6.65
-0.46
-6.47%
GLBE
Global-e Online
38.98
5.68
17.06%
DIBS
1stdibs.com
4.64
1.88
68.12%
Etsy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Etsy Shareholders Endorse Governance and Executive Pay Structure
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At Etsy’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 9, 2026, shareholders re-elected Class II directors M. Michele Burns, Josh Silverman, and Fred Wilson to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, and approved on an advisory basis the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.