Casella Waste (CWST) AI Stock Analysis

377 Followers

Casella Waste

(NASDAQ:CWST)

Select Model

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:$82.00▼(-17.07% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/07/26

CWST’s score is driven primarily by solid cash generation and improving balance-sheet positioning, alongside supportive earnings-call guidance (reaffirmed EBITDA/FCF and higher revenue outlook). These positives are offset by sharply weakened GAAP profitability/ROE, very expensive valuation (P/E ~778), and technical indicators that lean neutral-to-bearish (negative MACD and trading below the 20-day and 200-day averages).

Positive Factors

Revenue and pricing growthStrong pricing and revenue growth indicate Casella is continuing to capture value across collection and disposal services. Pricing power can support recurring revenue expansion over the next several quarters, while broad-based service demand strengthens the durability of the operating model.

Negative Factors

Severe profitability compressionThe sharp decline in gross and net margins shows that revenue growth is converting weakly into bottom-line earnings. Persistently low profitability could limit internally funded expansion, reduce returns on the asset base, and leave results more exposed to cost or financing pressure.

Casella Waste Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Operating Income by SegmentShows profit generated by each business line (collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, etc.), revealing where the company earns its money and which parts are most efficient. Helps investors spot margin drivers, operational strengths, and segments that may need cost control or face margin pressure from labor, fuel, or regulation.

Chart Insights

Core regional segments show sustained operating-income gains driven by pricing and M&A, but a wildly volatile Corporate line reflects large one‑time charges and acquisition-related accounting that swamp GAAP segment profits—masking the improving underlying business. Management’s guidance confirms acquisition-fueled revenue and adjusted-margin expansion, yet higher pro‑forma leverage, integration costs and commodity/RNG uncertainty mean investors should prioritize adjusted EBITDA and free-cash-flow conversion and watch upcoming quarters for whether base-business margins hold as acquisition noise fades.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Casella Waste (CWST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $6.20B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 575.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 1060.9
Beta (1Y): 0.18
Revenue Growth: 13.59%
EPS Growth: -50.47%
Country: US
Employees: 5,600
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Waste Management

Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste management firm across the northeastern United States. The company specializes in comprehensive waste and resource management solutions, encompa...

How the Company Makes Money

Casella makes money by charging customers and counterparties for services across the waste management value chain, with revenues generally driven by (1) recurring service fees and (2) the throughput and pricing of disposal and processing assets. 1) C...

Casella Waste Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:9.31%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 08, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented solid top-line growth, strong adjusted EBITDA expansion, improved safety metrics, successful Mid-Atlantic integration progress, and disciplined cash generation and liquidity — offset by margin headwinds from fuel recovery mechanics, Resource Solutions comparables, and modest acquisition dilution. Management reiterated full-year operating guidance while raising revenue due largely to elevated fuel recovery fees and a recent small tuck-in acquisition, and emphasized ongoing focus on unlocking scale, operational synergies, and continued tuck-in M&A.

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Q2 revenue of $543.7 million, up 16.9% year-over-year driven by acquisitions and same-store growth.

Negative Updates

Adjusted EBITDA Margin Pressure

Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 80 basis points YoY to 22.7%, with higher fee-related revenue and acquisition dilution weighing on margins.

Company Guidance

Casella raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.09–$2.11 billion (a $30 million increase, driven mostly by higher expected fuel recovery fees with roughly >$20M attributed to fuel and an acquisition contributing ~$15M annualized—less than $10M of which falls in 2026), while reaffirming adjusted EBITDA of $473–$483 million, adjusted free cash flow of $200–$210 million, and net cash provided by operating activities of $370–$380 million; management assumes fuel stays near current elevated levels, expects solid waste price growth of about 5% (third‑party landfill price 4–5%), and notes fuel and recent M&A will weigh on margins by roughly 40–50 basis points (about a 30 bps FY headwind), with Q2 metrics including $543.7M revenue, $123.2M adjusted EBITDA, consolidated net leverage of 2.7x (as of 6/30), $1.35B debt, ~$25M cash and ~ $500M available liquidity; GAAP net income guidance was lowered to $0–$6M due to higher amortization and tax impacts.

Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue has grown consistently and operating/free cash flow are strong and improving (TTM OCF ~$413M; positive FCF), and leverage metrics appear improved versus prior years. Offsetting this, profitability has deteriorated sharply into TTM (gross margin down to ~13% and net margin ~0.3%), with weak bottom-line conversion and very low ROE, which caps the score.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

74Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.96B	1.84B	1.56B	1.26B	1.09B	889.21M
Gross Profit	495.99M	313.40M	295.04M	261.80M	235.62M	203.22M
EBITDA	398.07M	393.60M	321.52M	274.17M	248.29M	208.78M
Net Income	5.70M	7.87M	13.54M	25.40M	53.08M	41.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.56B	3.41B	3.33B	2.54B	1.45B	1.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.54M	123.77M	383.30M	220.91M	71.15M	33.81M
Total Debt	1.45B	1.24B	1.21B	1.12B	665.33M	616.09M
Total Liabilities	1.98B	1.84B	1.78B	1.51B	951.32M	861.12M
Stockholders Equity	1.58B	1.57B	1.55B	1.02B	497.90M	422.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.67M	84.70M	78.13M	78.19M	86.35M	59.44M
Operating Cash Flow	351.15M	329.78M	281.36M	233.09M	217.31M	182.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-695.22M	-469.15M	-670.61M	-1.01B	-206.92M	-293.15M
Financing Cash Flow	151.83M	-27.07M	551.64M	922.30M	26.95M	-10.12M

Casella Waste Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price98.88

Price Trends

50DMA89.01Positive

100DMA90.61Positive

200DMA89.98Positive

Market Momentum

MACD2.67Negative

RSI62.24Neutral

STOCH88.24Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.70, above the 50-day MA of 89.01, and above the 200-day MA of 89.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CWST.

Casella Waste Risk Analysis

Casella Waste disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casella Waste reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

2 New Risks

1.Inability to effectively adopt and manage artificial intelligence technologies could adversely affect our business, results of operations, and competitive position.Q4, 2025

2.Alternatives to landfill disposal could reduce our disposal volumes and adversely affect our revenues and operating results.Q4, 2025

Casella Waste Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

CWST against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WM	77Outperform	$93.31B	31.18	30.85%	1.53%	5.19%	19.97%
RSG	74Outperform	$73.99B	33.94	18.47%	1.04%	4.46%	7.35%
CLH	69Neutral	$15.55B	28.85	18.27%	―	10.09%	38.12%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CWST	59Neutral	$6.12B	1060.94	0.36%	―	13.59%	-50.47%
NVRI	44Neutral	$536.46M	-1.26	918.96%	73.14%	-22.51%	-698.56%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CWST and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
CWST	Casella Waste Systems	98.88	10.57	11.97%
CLH	Clean Harbors	288.24	83.12	40.52%
NVRI	Enviri Corporation	20.51	4.34	26.84%
RSG	Republic Services	245.41	43.61	21.61%
WM	Waste Management	238.49	42.15	21.47%

Casella Waste Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Casella Waste Advances Closure of New Hampshire Landfill

Neutral

Oct 1, 2026

On October 1, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. announced that its North Country Environmental Services landfill in Bethlehem, New Hampshire will stop accepting municipal solid waste on December 31, 2026, earlier than its prior expectation of ceasing...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2026

Casella Waste AI Stock Analysis