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CareTrust REIT (CTRE) AI Stock Analysis

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CTRE

CareTrust REIT

(NYSE:CTRE)

Select Model
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:$42.00▲(10.67% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/30/26

CTRE scores well primarily on high-quality financial performance (strong margins and free cash flow) and a bullish earnings call featuring raised guidance and conservative leverage with ample liquidity. Offsetting this is a weaker technical setup with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is supported by the dividend but tempered by a mid-20s P/E.

Positive Factors
Raised earnings guidanceRaised full-year guidance and double-digit projected growth indicate strong operating momentum and management confidence in the portfolio. If delivered, higher recurring FFO and FAD should support internally funded growth, dividend capacity, and stronger earnings power over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
SHOP competitionGreater competition in the SHOP market can reduce acquisition yields and make growth opportunities less attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. Persistent pricing pressure may limit CareTrust’s ability to deploy capital accretively, requiring stricter underwriting or a slower expansion pace in this segment.

CareTrust REIT (CTRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%CTRE+9.27%SPY+15.63%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$8.67B
Dividend Yield
3.97%
Average Volume (3M)
2.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
23.6
Beta (1Y)
0.19
Revenue Growth
53.07%
EPS Growth
32.48%
Country
US
Employees
43
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
REIT - Healthcare Facilities

CareTrust REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareTrust REIT, Inc. operates as a self-managed, publicly traded real estate investment trust. The company specializes in the ownership, acquisition, development, and leasing of various healthcare properties, including skilled nursing facilities, sen...

How the Company Makes Money

CareTrust REIT makes money primarily by owning healthcare real estate and leasing it to operating companies that run the underlying care businesses. Its core revenue stream is contractual rent collected from tenants under long-term lease arrangements...

CareTrust REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-6.75%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive on operational and financial performance: record quarterly investments, robust YTD deployment (~$1.5B), double-digit per-share growth guidance, materially higher normalized FFO/FAD and conservative leverage with ample liquidity. Offsetting items are focused and tactical: competitive pressures and cap rate compression in the SHOP market, modest pricing premium on a large U.K. buy, reliance on unsettled equity forward proceeds and certain guidance assumptions, and multi-year uncertainty around financing receivable purchase options. Overall the strengths (record investment activity, significant FFO/FAD growth, strong balance sheet and operator quality) materially outweigh the select execution and market risks discussed.

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly and Year-to-Date Investments
Closed approximately $900 million of investments in Q2 at a blended stabilized yield of 8.9% (single largest investment quarter excluding M&A). Since June 30, an additional ~$308 million closed at ~7.8% yield. Year-to-date investments total approximately $1.5 billion.

Negative Updates

SHOP: Competitive Pressure and Cap Rate Compression
Increased private-market entrant activity and competition in the SHOP space has compressed cap rates and made it difficult to secure attractive risk-adjusted returns. Management noted missing some SHOP deals primarily on price and that SHOP transactions have become more competitive.

Company Guidance

CareTrust raised full-year 2026 guidance, now projecting normalized FFO per share of $2.03–$2.06 and normalized FAD per share of $2.01–$2.04 (midpoint implying ~16.2% FFO/share and ~15.1% FAD/share growth vs. 2025) based on a weighted average diluted share count of 233 million; the outlook assumes no new investments/loans/dispositions or debt/equity issuances beyond year‑to‑date activity, 2.5% inflation-based rent escalators on long‑term triple‑net leases, $147 million of loans to be repaid during the year (≈$104 million received to date), and no material change in GBP/USD. The company noted ample liquidity to fund guidance with roughly $1.4 billion available (≈$90 million cash, $605 million revolver availability on a $1.2 billion facility, ≈$671 million unsettled equity forwards and ≈$785.8 million ATM capacity), a net debt to annualized normalized run‑rate EBITDA of 1.0x, fixed charge coverage of 9.9x, and no scheduled debt maturities before 2028.

CareTrust REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals supported by accelerating TTM revenue growth (~16%), very high net margins (~65%), and excellent cash generation (TTM FCF $519M; ~97% of net income). Balance-sheet risk appears meaningfully reduced with zero total debt reported in TTM and improved flexibility, though historical earnings volatility (notably 2022) is a key watchout.

Income Statement

86Very Positive

Balance Sheet

88Very Positive

Cash Flow

91Very Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue543.45M476.59M228.26M198.60M187.51M190.19M
Gross Profit413.20M281.79M214.71M189.01M178.13M186.62M
EBITDA523.27M462.04M211.64M145.86M72.88M151.05M
Net Income355.40M320.54M125.08M53.73M-7.51M71.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.93B5.15B3.44B2.08B1.62B1.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.27M198.04M213.82M294.45M13.18M19.89M
Total Debt1.21B894.22M396.93M595.60M719.50M673.40M
Total Liabilities1.42B1.09B507.63M666.12M771.41M725.09M
Stockholders Equity4.49B4.04B2.91B1.42B849.37M915.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow431.35M379.04M236.20M143.79M137.12M150.86M
Operating Cash Flow446.99M394.03M244.25M154.77M144.41M156.87M
Investing Cash Flow-1.63B-1.46B-1.51B-267.81M-127.40M-192.63M
Financing Cash Flow923.12M1.05B1.19B394.32M-23.73M36.74M

CareTrust REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price37.95

Price Trends

50DMA37.20Negative
100DMA38.54Negative
200DMA38.33Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.21Negative
RSI51.26Neutral
STOCH57.65Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.28, above the 50-day MA of 37.20, and below the 200-day MA of 38.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CTRE.

CareTrust REIT Risk Analysis

CareTrust REIT disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CareTrust REIT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1..We have disclosed under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 risk factors which materially affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations. There have been no material changes from the risk factors previously disclosed, except as noted below.Our use of, or inability to use, artificial intelligence (“AI”) presents risks and challenges that may adversely impact our business and operating results or the business and operating results of our tenants, managers, borrowers or business partners.We use, and may expand our use of, generative artificial intelligence and machine learning (collectively, “AI”). If our peers use AI tools to optimize operations and we fail to utilize AI tools in a comparable manner, we may be competitively disadvantaged. While AI tools may facilitate optimization and operational efficiencies, they also have the potential for inaccuracy, bias, infringement or misappropriation of intellectual property. The use of AI tools may introduce errors or inadequacies that are not easily detectable, including deficiencies, inaccuracies, or biases in the data used for AI training, or in the content, analyses, or recommendations generated by AI applications. Uncertainty around the safety and security of new and emerging AI applications may require additional investment in the development of proprietary datasets, machine learning models and systems to test for security, accuracy, bias and other variables, which are often complex, may be costly and could impact our operating results. Cybersecurity threat actors may also utilize AI tools to automate and enhance cybersecurity attacks against us and could lead to data breaches, loss of confidential or sensitive information, and financial or reputational harm. Additionally, AI-enabled solutions and features may become more important to our tenants, managers, borrowers and business partners over time. They may also incorporate AI into their products and services without disclosing such use to us or fail to disclose risks presented by their use of AI. If our tenants, managers, borrowers or business partners use AI tools that do not meet existing or rapidly evolving regulatory or industry standards with respect to privacy and data protection, compliance and transparency, among others, it could inhibit our and their ability to maintain an adequate level of functionality or service. Our use of third-party AI models, platforms, vendors, datasets, or infrastructure relies on safeguards implemented by those third parties, including safeguards related to model performance, availability, privacy, data use, security, intellectual property, confidentiality, accuracy, bias mitigation, regulatory compliance, and other matters, and these safeguards may be insufficient. Third-party AI providers may also change their models, terms, pricing, availability, data-use practices, privacy and security commitments, intellectual property positions, or compliance posture in ways that adversely affect our operations, costs, or ability to meet our contractual or regulatory obligations. Interruptions, errors, degradation, security incidents, or changes involving third-party AI technologies could impair our products or internal operations and could adversely affect our business.Additionally, the complex and rapidly evolving landscape around AI may expose us to claims, inquiries, demands and proceedings by private parties and global regulatory authorities and subject us to legal liability as well as reputational harm. New laws and regulations are being adopted in the U.S. and in non-U.S. jurisdictions, and existing laws and regulations may be interpreted in ways that would affect our business operations and the way in which we use AI. Future regulations could impose restrictions on the use of AI technology and require us to incur significant costs to implement compliance measures or change the way in which we use AI. Any of these outcomes could impair our ability to compete effectively, damage our reputation, result in the loss of valuable property or information and adversely impact our results of operations.In addition, investors, analysts, and other market participants may use AI tools to process, summarize or interpret our financial information or other data about us. The use of AI tools in financial and market analysis may introduce risks similar to those described above, including an inaccurate interpretation of our financial or operational performance or market trends or conditions, which in turn could result in inaccurate conclusions or investment recommendations.48Q2, 2026

CareTrust REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

CTRE against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
OHIOHI80Outperform$14.40B19.4314.32%5.49%14.14%37.89%
CTRECTRE80Outperform$8.67B23.578.54%3.97%53.07%32.48%
LTCLTC75Outperform$2.47B4.7839.59%4.92%68.94%1200.88%
SBRASBRA72Outperform$5.33B75.322.55%5.69%21.20%-61.51%
NHINHI68Neutral$3.38B20.5410.96%5.19%23.77%10.04%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
STRWSTRW65Neutral$701.19M20.4472.36%5.05%18.27%6.18%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-10%0%10%20%30%CTRELTCNHIOHISBRASTRWDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
CTRE and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
CTRECareTrust REIT37.953.7911.08%
LTCLtc Properties46.3312.8538.39%
NHINational Health Investors71.29-0.40-0.56%
OHIOmega Healthcare Investors49.178.3320.38%
SBRASabra Healthcare Reit21.093.3418.85%
STRWStrawberry Fields REIT Inc13.082.0918.96%

CareTrust REIT Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

CareTrust REIT Expands Credit Facility, Boosting Liquidity

Positive
Oct 30, 2026

On October 29, 2026, CareTrust REIT and its operating partnership entered into a fourth amended and restated credit and guaranty agreement, expanding their unsecured credit facility to include a $2.0 billion revolving credit line with multi-currency...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

CareTrust REIT expands UK care home portfolio

Positive
Oct 2, 2026

On October 1, 2026, CareTrust REIT, through its UK subsidiary, completed the acquisition of share capital in companies holding 23 completed care homes and one additional home pending regulatory approval from LNT Care Developments for approximately &#...

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures

CareTrust REIT Raises 2026 Guidance After Strong Quarter

Positive
Aug 6, 2026

CareTrust REIT reported strong operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, highlighted by net income of $89.0 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, up 9% year over year, and double-digit gains in Normalized FFO and FAD per share to $0.51. T...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026