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CTO Realty Growth
(NYSE:CTO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven most by a strong, guidance-raising earnings call and supportive valuation (high dividend yield with a reasonable P/E). Technicals add a moderate tailwind with an uptrend and balanced momentum. Offsetting these positives, financial performance is penalized for volatility across years, unusually low TTM gross margin, and balance-sheet data inconsistencies that reduce confidence in leverage and asset-quality assessment.
Positive Factors
Strong leasing and occupancy
High occupancy, positive leasing spreads and a $6.3M signed-not-open rent pipeline support durable same-property income growth. These factors can improve rental revenue and NOI as leases commence and vacant space is absorbed.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Although leverage improved, 5.8x remains material for a property company and leaves earnings exposed to refinancing costs, interest rates and transaction timing. Higher debt can also constrain acquisitions or distributions if operating conditions weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong leasing and occupancy
High occupancy, positive leasing spreads and a $6.3M signed-not-open rent pipeline support durable same-property income growth. These factors can improve rental revenue and NOI as leases commence and vacant space is absorbed.
Read all positive factors
CTO Realty Growth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Separates rental and related income by property type or business line so you can see which segments drive the bulk of cash flow, identify growth engines, and assess dependence on any single market or tenant mix.
Separates rental and related income by property type or business line so you can see which segments drive the bulk of cash flow, identify growth engines, and assess dependence on any single market or tenant mix.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$825.80M
Dividend Yield6.92%
Average Volume (3M)361.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth14.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees42
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding37,485,455
10 Day Avg. Volume269,185
30 Day Avg. Volume361,992
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.87
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio9.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.60Price Target Upside11.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$176.79M
CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTO Realty Growth, Inc., a publicly traded real estate enterprise headquartered in Florida, manages a diverse portfolio of income-generating properties. These assets span various markets throughout the United States, collectively encompassing arou...
How the Company Makes Money
CTO primarily makes money through (1) rental revenue from leasing space in its commercial real estate portfolio to tenants (base rent under long-term leases, and in some cases additional rent components such as reimbursements for property operatin...
CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: robust same-property NOI growth (10.1% for shopping centers), meaningful leasing activity and high occupancy (95.4%), raised FFO/AFFO guidance, materially increased investment-volume targets, and a high-yield structured investment book. Capital recycling and an accretive Dallas acquisition further support earnings growth. Headwinds noted were limited and manageable: an office vacancy being filled by the State of New Mexico, tougher Q3 comps due to unusually low bad debt in the prior year, one remaining anchor vacancy, near-term elevated taxes (largely non-cash), and leverage that remains elevated though improving. Overall, positives meaningfully outweigh the negatives, but timing and execution of certain pipeline and disposition items remain watch points.Positive Updates
Strong Same-Property NOI Growth
Shopping-center same property NOI increased 10.1% for the quarter versus prior year; total same property NOI (including noncore) increased 6.7% for the quarter and 4.5% for the six months ended June 30.
Negative Updates
Office Vacancy and One Large Tenant Move-Out
A tenant vacated 98k sq ft at the Albuquerque office property (part of 212k sq ft) in Dec 2025, negatively impacting year-to-date same property NOI; the State of New Mexico is expected to take possession and commence rent late 2026, and the asset is being prepared for sale (likely late 2026/early 2027).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Same-Property NOI Growth
Shopping-center same property NOI increased 10.1% for the quarter versus prior year; total same property NOI (including noncore) increased 6.7% for the quarter and 4.5% for the six months ended June 30.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 guidance, increasing core FFO to $2.09–$2.13 and AFFO to $2.21–$2.25 per diluted share (midpoint core FFO implies ~13% growth vs. 2025), and boosting investment volume guidance by >$100M to $300–$400M (from $175–$250M); key assumptions include shopping‑center same‑property NOI growth of 5%–6% (up from 3.5%–4.5%) and G&A of $20.0–$20.2M. They cited a $6.3M signed‑but‑not‑open pipeline (~5.8% of in‑place annual cash‑based rent) as a visible earnings tailwind, a target structured‑investment allocation of ~15% of undepreciated assets (pro forma structured book $222M, ~11.5% weighted yield), year‑to‑date investments of $234.2M at a 9.5% weighted yield (Q2 investments $153M at a 10.2% initial yield), dispositions of $90.7M at a 6.7% exit cap rate, total liquidity of $131.8M, and net debt to pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA of 5.8x (down 0.6x QoQ) with management expecting further deleveraging as the pipeline ramps.CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 161.10M | 149.54M | 124.52M | 109.12M | 82.32M | 70.27M |
| Gross Profit | 922.00K | -8.41M | 91.30M | 78.94M | 59.46M | 47.84M |
| EBITDA | 151.95M | 97.48M | 75.03M | 71.70M | 46.56M | 55.78M |
| Net Income | 52.68M | 10.09M | -1.97M | 5.53M | 3.16M | 29.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.40B | 1.26B | 1.18B | 989.67M | 986.54M | 733.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 59.37M | 47.79M | 48.68M | 49.66M | 61.37M | 49.65M |
| Total Debt | 690.28M | 616.57M | 519.29M | 495.79M | 445.65M | 284.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 742.55M | 696.56M | 568.85M | 532.14M | 481.77M | 302.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 663.18M | 567.35M | 612.80M | 457.53M | 504.77M | 430.48M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.19M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | -257.83M | 27.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 66.94M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | 56.10M | 27.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -123.67M | -71.50M | -232.67M | -52.56M | -267.63M | -102.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 81.40M | 30.66M | 172.35M | 2.77M | 201.38M | 72.91M |
CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis
Positive
22.00
Price Trends
21.58
Positive
20.56
Positive
19.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
55.67
Neutral
75.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.89, above the 50-day MA of 21.58, and above the 200-day MA of 19.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTO.
CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis
CTO Realty Growth disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $825.80M | 15.45 | 8.92% | 6.91% | 14.26% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $583.02M | 415.48 | 0.36% | 5.08% | 8.87% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $636.07M | 24.45 | 9.73% | 8.49% | 10.78% | -30.46% | |
58 Neutral | $532.97M | 16.61 | 10.50% | 7.16% | 9.52% | 21.63% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
21.98
6.66
43.46%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.98
1.14
9.60%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
24.41
3.36
15.96%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
19.86
7.28
57.89%
CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
CTO Realty Growth Posts Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
CTO Realty Growth reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, posting net income of $0.38 per diluted share, Core FFO of $0.53 per diluted share and AFFO of $0.55 per diluted share, marking a sharp improvement from prior-year losses. Th...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CTO Realty Stockholders Approve Directors and Equity Plan
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 17, 2026, at which investors elected six directors, including John P. Albright and five other nominees, to serve on the board until the 2027 annual meeting. Shareholders ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.