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Crescent Energy Company Class A (CRGY) AI Stock Analysis

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CRGY

Crescent Energy Company Class A

(NYSE:CRGY)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:$14.50â–²(2.11% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/17/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial momentum from stronger operating cash flow and newly solid TTM free cash flow, reinforced by a bullish earnings call that raised guidance and highlighted record levered free cash flow and synergy capture. These positives are tempered by volatile/low net profitability, moderate-to-elevated leverage, and a stretched valuation (very high P/E). Technicals are mildly supportive but not strong enough to materially lift the overall score.

Positive Factors
Strong Cash GenerationThe sharp improvement in operating and free cash flow indicates stronger cash conversion and better funding capacity than in recent periods. Sustained internally generated cash can support development spending, dividends, debt reduction, and strategic investment without relying exclusively on external financing.
Negative Factors
Volatile ProfitabilityVery thin current net margins and prior loss years show that Crescent’s earnings conversion remains inconsistent despite stronger recent revenue and cash flow. Uneven profitability can reduce retained capital, make results more sensitive to operating changes, and constrain financial flexibility during weaker periods.

Crescent Energy Company Class A Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by SegmentBreakdown of revenue across the company’s business lines (for example oil, gas, NGLs, and any midstream or marketing revenue). Segment-level revenue reveals where income is concentrated, how diversified the business is, and which parts drive profits or risk—high concentration increases sensitivity to specific commodity prices or operational issues.

$0.00$250.00M$500.00M$750.00M$1.00B$1.25BMar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

Oil remains the earnings driver, with a pronounced recent revenue jump tied to record production, Permian integration synergies, longer laterals and lower well costs that boost volumes and realizations; natural gas and NGLs are recovering but secondary. The steep drop in Midstream & Other looks like a timing/classification blip versus management saying minerals & royalties will meaningfully ramp (~$200M EBITDA). Hedging on Waha and an expected unwind of a short working‑capital draw limit near‑term pricing risk, supporting strong free‑cash‑flow guidance.

Data provided by:The Fly

Crescent Energy Company Class A (CRGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%CRGY+84.03%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$4.69B
Dividend Yield
3.38%
Average Volume (3M)
7.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
97.1
Beta (1Y)
0.65
Revenue Growth
24.25%
EPS Growth
―
Country
US
Employees
1,066
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Crescent Energy Company Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Crescent Energy Company operates as an energy enterprise, primarily focused on the exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its operational footprint extends across a diverse array of oil and...

Crescent Energy Company Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 02, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:25.47%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 01, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive on operational execution, cost reductions, and cash generation: record quarterly levered free cash flow, raised production guidance, substantial Permian synergy capture and improved operating expense guidance. Lowlights are mostly timing and execution risks (H2 2026 volumes, ongoing Permian optimization, and commodity-price sensitivity) and a modest expected decline in 2027 as Permian capital is reset. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum outweigh the near-term risks.

Positive Updates

Record Free Cash Flow and Strong Cash Generation
Generated a record $418 million of levered free cash flow in the quarter and ~$798 million of adjusted EBITDAX; management expects more than $1 billion of levered free cash flow in 2026 at current prices.

Negative Updates

Second-Half 2026 Volume Timing Risk
Management expects a natural decline in volumes in the back half of 2026 due to timing of completions and a transition from 2-mile to 3-mile laterals in the Permian; Q3 oil volumes guided to the mid-130,000 bbl/d range. Year-to-date the company has drilled ~17% more gross wells than have been placed on production, indicating timing/pace mismatch.

Company Guidance

Crescent raised and tightened 2026 guidance, increasing full‑year total production to 327,000–335,000 boe/d and improving adjusted operating expense by $0.50 to $11–$12/boe while keeping development capital unchanged at $1.325–$1.425 billion; at current prices management expects more than $1 billion of levered free cash flow in 2026. Quarter-to-date metrics underpinning the update included Q2 production of ~335,000 boe/d (≈140,000 bbls oil/d), ~2% above the original guidance midpoint (oil ~4% above), adjusted EBITDAX of ~$798 million and a record $418 million of levered FCF, with adjusted opex nearly 10% better than midpoint. Management also disclosed capture of roughly $190 million of annualized Permian synergies to date (raising the target to $250–$300 million, with the bulk expected by year‑end 2026 and additional upside into 2027), minerals production of ~13,000 boe/d (≈$200 million EBITDA at current prices), $2.2 billion of liquidity, no near‑term maturities and a ~6‑year weighted average debt maturity, a $0.12/share quarterly dividend, and the July 31 redemption of $259 million of 2029 notes.

Crescent Energy Company Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving cash generation is the key positive (TTM operating cash flow around $2.0B and TTM free cash flow about $878M). Offsetting this, profitability is inconsistent with thin TTM net margin (~1.3%) and prior loss years, and leverage remains moderate-to-elevated with debt roughly around equity (~1x), which can pressure flexibility in commodity down-cycles.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

52Neutral

Cash Flow

64Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.31B3.58B2.93B2.38B3.06B1.48B
Gross Profit3.24B808.45M2.40B1.30B2.62B1.23B
EBITDA1.44B1.67B996.99M1.17B1.15B-69.01M
Net Income54.75M132.91M-114.61M67.61M96.67M-19.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.01B12.44B9.16B6.80B6.02B5.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments264.88M10.16M132.82M2.97M0128.58M
Total Debt5.28B5.71B3.13B1.76B1.32B1.09B
Total Liabilities6.85B7.28B4.79B3.17B2.72B2.14B
Stockholders Equity5.16B5.16B3.13B1.70B848.11M682.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow899.23M-89.75M-21.20M-494.83M-206.96M-37.54M
Operating Cash Flow1.96B1.68B1.22B935.77M1.01B233.15M
Investing Cash Flow-657.23M-922.69M-1.20B-1.40B-1.12B-244.59M
Financing Cash Flow-1.03B-245.07M207.39M456.46M-7.84M105.14M

Crescent Energy Company Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price14.20

Price Trends

50DMA13.63Positive
100DMA12.23Positive
200DMA11.86Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.16Negative
RSI60.81Neutral
STOCH82.51Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.20 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.42, above the 50-day MA of 13.63, and above the 200-day MA of 11.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CRGY.

Crescent Energy Company Class A Risk Analysis

Crescent Energy Company Class A disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crescent Energy Company Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

  • Finance & Corporate30
  • Tech & Innovation2
  • Legal & Regulatory12
  • Production16
  • Ability to Sell2
  • Macro & Political3
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1.The accounting method for the 2031 Convertible Notes could adversely affect our reported financial condition and results.Q2, 2026

Crescent Energy Company Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

CRGY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
MGYMGY81Outperform$7.10B11.5221.10%2.49%11.35%18.91%
MTDRMTDR77Outperform$7.53B10.4412.76%2.46%1.84%-14.76%
NOGNOG70Outperform$3.02B-5.56-23.85%6.35%-3.02%-183.44%
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
CRCCRC65Neutral$4.93B-41.70-3.60%2.92%2.33%-117.79%
HPKHPK61Neutral$1.29B-12.90-5.69%1.57%-12.57%-188.23%
CRGYCRGY61Neutral$5.83B97.061.12%3.38%24.25%―

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%CRGYMTDRNOGMGYHPKCRCDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
CRGY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
CRGYCrescent Energy Company Class A14.206.0173.47%
MTDRMatador Resources60.8822.8460.05%
NOGNorthern Oil And Gas28.357.9739.11%
MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas26.504.5420.67%
HPKHighpeak Energy Inc10.193.9462.99%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp55.469.6621.10%

Crescent Energy Company Class A Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing

Crescent Energy expands credit capacity for Eagle Ford deal

Positive
Oct 15, 2026

On October 14, 2026, Crescent Energy Finance LLC entered into a Sixteenth Amendment to its long-standing credit agreement, keeping aggregate elected commitments at $2.0 billion while updating terms to accommodate Crescent Energy Company’s growt...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing

Crescent Energy Class A Public Equity Offering Announced

Positive
Oct 9, 2026

On October 8, 2026, Crescent Energy Company launched and priced an underwritten public offering of 80,000,000 Class A shares at $12.50 each, with underwriters granted a 30-day option for 12,000,000 additional shares that was fully exercised on Octobe...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing

Crescent Energy to Acquire Devon’s Eagle Ford Assets

Positive
Oct 8, 2026

On October 8, 2026, Crescent Energy agreed to acquire Devon Energy’s Eagle Ford assets, including roughly 89,000 largely operated net acres and about 68 Mboe/d of oil-weighted production, for an all-cash consideration of about $4.22 billion, su...

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures

Crescent Energy boosts guidance and strengthens balance sheet

Positive
Aug 3, 2026

In the second quarter of 2026, Crescent Energy delivered record operating cash flow of $707 million and levered free cash flow of $418 million, supported by average production of 335 MBoe/d, robust oil volumes and operating costs roughly 9% below pri...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 17, 2026