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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$145.00
â–²(9.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially robust free cash flow and moderate leverage—plus a constructive earnings call emphasizing continued shareholder returns and a well-funded operating plan. Offsetting factors are normalized (lower) margins versus peak-cycle levels, mixed/neutral technical setup, and a valuation that appears reasonable rather than clearly cheap for a cyclical producer.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Robust operating and free cash flow give ConocoPhillips capacity to fund development, sustain shareholder distributions, and preserve financial flexibility. The scale and healthy cash conversion support a durable self-funded model, although commodity prices and capital spending still influence consistency.
Negative Factors
Normalized profitability
Profitability has declined materially from the 2022 peak, showing that earnings remain exposed to the commodity cycle and realized price conditions. Lower margins reduce cash generation per barrel and can constrain returns on capital if weaker pricing or higher reinvestment needs persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Robust operating and free cash flow give ConocoPhillips capacity to fund development, sustain shareholder distributions, and preserve financial flexibility. The scale and healthy cash conversion support a durable self-funded model, although commodity prices and capital spending still influence consistency.
Read all positive factors
Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by country or region, revealing where the company earns money and how exposed it is to local price differentials, regulations, taxes, and export constraints. Geographic concentration can amplify regional risks or show diversification that smooths earnings across cycles.
Breaks down sales by country or region, revealing where the company earns money and how exposed it is to local price differentials, regulations, taxes, and export constraints. Geographic concentration can amplify regional risks or show diversification that smooths earnings across cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyConocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$152.27B
Dividend Yield2.65%
Average Volume (3M)6.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.8
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth9.47%
EPS Growth1.21%
CountryUS
Employees9,600
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.56
Shares Outstanding1,201,337,500
10 Day Avg. Volume6,224,393
30 Day Avg. Volume6,437,338
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)1.99
P/FCF Ratio6.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$147.95Price Target Upside12.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)10.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$71.00B
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs...
How the Company Makes Money
ConocoPhillips primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Revenue is largely volume-driven (production levels) and price-driven (realized commodity prices), with realized pri...
Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial achievements: production above guidance, record Permian volumes, large free cash flow generation ($4.2B), completed disposition target early, expanded LNG commercial portfolio (now 12 mtpa), and a strong balance sheet ($8.1B cash). Management reiterated a clear path to a $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029, ongoing cost reductions, and lower structural breakevens. The primary negatives were controllable: short-term production impacts and uncertainty from Qatar-related disruptions, modest near-term production lost to asset sales (~15k boe/d), investor skepticism about execution/timing of the long-term cash flow inflection, and the usual project timing risks. Overall, the positives substantially outweigh the manageable near-term negatives, while management presented a coherent plan to deliver on targets.Positive Updates
Strong Production & Record Permian
Total company production of 2.248 million boe/d in Q2 (above the high end of guidance); Permian achieved a new record of over 900k boe/d and Permian production was ~10% year-over-year on an underlying basis through the first half of FY26.
Negative Updates
Qatar Production Disruption & Uncertainty
Ras Laffan was largely shut in during Q2 with only limited volumes produced; Q3 guidance assumes a ramp through the quarter but management acknowledged meaningful uncertainty in the pace and throughput. Potential schedule impacts to NFE/NFS projects are expected in the order of months (not years), but uncertainty remains.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production & Record Permian
Total company production of 2.248 million boe/d in Q2 (above the high end of guidance); Permian achieved a new record of over 900k boe/d and Permian production was ~10% year-over-year on an underlying basis through the first half of FY26.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year guidance is unchanged and confirmed a target to return 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders (averaged ~40% in H1, so H2 distributions to increase); Q3 production guidance is 2.290–2.320 million boe/d (Q2 production was 2.248 million boe/d, with Permian at a record >900k boe/d and ~15k boe/d removed for July non‑core sales); Q2 CFO was $7.2B, CapEx $3.0B, free cash flow $4.2B, and shareholder distributions were $3.0B (≈$2.0B buybacks + $1.0B dividends); the balance sheet held $8.1B cash & short‑term investments plus $1.2B liquid long‑term investments with leverage well below 1x; the company remains on track for LNG projects to start contributing in 2027, Willow first oil in early 2029, a $7B free‑cash‑flow inflection by 2029 (breakeven falling from mid‑$40s WTI today to the low‑$30s), completed its $5B disposition program ahead of schedule (including $1.7B of L48 sales in July), and added two 1 mtpa LNG offtakes to bring total commercial offtake to 12 mtpa.Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 63.34B | 58.94B | 54.74B | 56.14B | 78.49B | 45.83B |
| Gross Profit | 17.53B | 14.79B | 16.38B | 18.20B | 30.01B | 14.77B |
| EBITDA | 27.79B | 25.57B | 24.43B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B |
| Net Income | 9.28B | 7.99B | 9.24B | 10.96B | 18.68B | 8.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 124.26B | 121.94B | 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.69B | 6.98B | 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B |
| Total Debt | 23.29B | 23.44B | 25.35B | 19.63B | 17.19B | 19.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 58.91B | 57.45B | 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.35B | 64.49B | 64.80B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.59B | 16.77B | 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.93B | 19.80B | 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.35B | -8.84B | -11.15B | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.84B | -10.10B | -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Neutral
131.84
Price Trends
127.75
Negative
120.49
Positive
115.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.00
Positive
44.90
Neutral
36.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 131.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.18, above the 50-day MA of 127.75, and above the 200-day MA of 115.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $74.16B | 10.94 | 22.38% | 2.89% | 17.13% | 24.89% | |
77 Outperform | $52.42B | 11.26 | 14.90% | 2.35% | 18.28% | -5.35% | |
74 Outperform | $152.27B | 16.77 | 14.32% | 2.65% | 9.47% | 1.21% | |
74 Outperform | $41.11B | 13.41 | 8.55% | 5.32% | -4.74% | 4.59% | |
71 Outperform | $51.72B | 36.08 | 4.22% | 2.30% | 21.45% | -63.30% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $58.06B | 8.73 | 18.97% | 1.79% | -10.74% | 91.14% |
* Energy Sector Average
COP
Conocophillips
126.75
34.74
37.76%
DVN
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13.61
39.97%
EOG
EOG Resources
141.38
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32.45%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
58.08
13.57
30.48%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
21.79
7.22
49.51%
FANG
Diamondback
184.71
39.12
26.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.