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Churchill Downs
(NASDAQ:CHDN)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$92.00
▼(-0.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/24/26
The score is driven by strong operating momentum and cash generation reinforced by a constructive earnings call (record results, robust free cash flow, and visible growth initiatives). Offsetting this is elevated balance-sheet leverage, which increases downside sensitivity, while technicals are mixed and valuation is only moderately supportive given the low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained, material free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds organic expansions (HRM/ETG rollouts, Rockingham), funds Derby-week investments, supports maintenance/project capex guidance, and creates capacity to service debt or return capital without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very elevated leverage materially increases financial risk and limits strategic flexibility. High interest and principal servicing needs constrain the pace of deleveraging, reduce ability to absorb shocks, and raise sensitivity to cash-flow volatility or weaker operating performance over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained, material free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds organic expansions (HRM/ETG rollouts, Rockingham), funds Derby-week investments, supports maintenance/project capex guidance, and creates capacity to service debt or return capital without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Churchill Downs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA By Segment
Shows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Shows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChurchill Downs (CHDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.95B
Dividend Yield0.38%
Average Volume (3M)995.16K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth5.75%
EPS Growth-4.30%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.44
Shares Outstanding69,696,910
10 Day Avg. Volume1,112,371
30 Day Avg. Volume995,162
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.29
Price to Book (P/B)7.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.76
P/FCF Ratio16.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$131.56Price Target Upside42.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)6.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.03B
Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) is a leading U.S. entertainment enterprise focused on horse racing, online wagering, and general gaming activities. Its extensive operations are categorized into three main divisions: Live and Historical Racing, ...
How the Company Makes Money
CHDN generates revenue primarily from (1) casino and racino gaming, (2) online wagering and gaming, and (3) racing and related event operations.
1) Casino and racino gaming (in-person)
- Gaming win: The largest driver is typically “gaming revenue...
Churchill Downs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: record revenues and adjusted EBITDA, strong free cash flow, robust HRM growth in Kentucky (17% EBITDA increase) and solid gains in Virginia (6% EBITDA increase), successful launch of Marshall Yards, early traction from ETGs, and strategic acquisition of Preakness IP. Challenges cited were localized (weather-related disruption, Louisiana HRM cessation), some competitive impacts and customer-mix softness outside Kentucky, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Overall, the positives — including clear growth initiatives, solid cash generation, and targeted capital deployment — materially outweigh the manageable headwinds discussed.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Delivered record first quarter net revenues of $663 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $257 million, reflecting strong execution across the portfolio.
Negative Updates
Operational Impact from Weather and Local Competition in Virginia
Performance at several Virginia properties was negatively impacted by weather and increased competition; outside Colonial Downs, some properties experienced softness that management is actively addressing through marketing and operating changes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Delivered record first quarter net revenues of $663 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $257 million, reflecting strong execution across the portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 capital guidance of $180–$220 million in project capex and $90–$110 million in maintenance capex, reported Q1 free cash flow of $276 million ($3.94/share) and bank‑covenant net leverage of 3.9x, and affirmed Derby‑week upside with $15–$20 million of incremental EBITDA year‑over‑year and expectations to significantly outpace last year (and Derby 150) with a likely sell‑out; operational timelines include 48 race dates at Colonial Downs in 2026, a mid‑2027 opening target for Rockingham Grand Casino, and completion of the Victory Run project by 2028, while the announced Preakness IP deal carries a $3.0 million base fee (growing 2.5% annually beginning 2028) plus 2% of combined Preakness/Black‑Eyed Susan handle (combined handle ~ $140 million in the prior year), and the company will continue rolling out HRM electronic table games throughout 2026 and beyond.Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.95B | 2.93B | 2.73B | 2.46B | 1.81B | 1.60B |
| Gross Profit | 996.10M | 982.60M | 938.50M | 795.70M | 566.40M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.01B | 875.10M | 536.80M |
| Net Income | 385.60M | 379.70M | 426.80M | 417.30M | 439.40M | 249.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.49B | 7.48B | 7.28B | 6.96B | 6.21B | 2.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 200.00M | 288.50M | 175.50M | 144.50M | 129.80M | 291.30M |
| Total Debt | 4.94B | 5.20B | 4.92B | 4.84B | 4.61B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.34B | 6.43B | 6.17B | 6.06B | 5.66B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.10B | 1.01B | 1.08B | 893.60M | 551.50M | 306.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 564.50M | 494.90M | 225.70M | -70.70M | 80.00M | 243.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 818.30M | 769.80M | 772.70M | 605.80M | 536.80M | 335.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -452.40M | -471.50M | -545.20M | -718.00M | -3.10B | -100.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -346.60M | -262.50M | -196.60M | 129.30M | 2.42B | -500.00K |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Negative
92.21
Price Trends
88.64
Negative
89.19
Negative
95.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.27
Positive
45.80
Neutral
31.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.93, above the 50-day MA of 88.64, and below the 200-day MA of 95.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHDN.
Churchill Downs Risk Analysis
Churchill Downs disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Churchill Downs reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Churchill Downs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.45B | 3.83 | 79.86% | 0.84% | 3.45% | 272.47% | |
70 Outperform | $6.61B | 15.19 | 96.22% | 3.22% | 3.75% | 20.20% | |
66 Neutral | $5.95B | 15.83 | 36.88% | 0.38% | 5.75% | -4.30% | |
63 Neutral | $6.07B | -12.56 | -13.29% | ― | 2.35% | -116.00% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $11.92B | 63.62 | 6.96% | ― | 3.39% | -67.21% | |
53 Neutral | $10.16B | 27.15 | -115.50% | 0.80% | 4.72% | -8.26% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CHDN
Churchill Downs
86.13
-19.26
-18.27%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
87.37
8.42
10.67%
MGM
MGM Resorts
46.44
8.51
22.44%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
98.83
-11.33
-10.28%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
29.77
-0.26
-0.87%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
63.49
9.14
16.82%
Churchill Downs Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Churchill Downs Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
At its annual meeting on April 21, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated shareholders elected two Class III directors, Douglas C. Grissom and Daniel P. Harrington, to new three‑year terms, with each nominee receiving strong majority support des...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.