Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.67B
• Dividend Yield: 1.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 556.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -4.27%
• EPS Growth: 17.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 133,427,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 420,252
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 556,829
• PEG Ratio: 5.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.09
• 1Y Price Target: $64.60
• Price Target Upside: 2.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong financial performance with robust profit margins and effective cash flow management. The technical analysis suggests some short-term bearish sentiment, but the stock is reasonably valued with a fair P/E ratio and decent dividend yield. The absence of recent earnings call data and corporate events means the score predominantly reflects financial and valuation metrics.

Positive Factors

Net Interest Margin

Net interest margin of 3.49% beat estimates and was a positive surprise despite rate cuts.

Revenue Stream

CBSH remains among the favorites of defensive names owing a combination of a diverse revenue stream and a track-record of sustainable credit results.

Negative Factors

Loan Growth

Loan growth remains weak, affecting funding strategies despite an excess liquidity position.

Valuation Concerns

Fundamentals through 1Q25 and premium valuation leave little room for upside.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates revenue primarily through its banking operations, which include interest income from loans and investments and non-interest income from fees and services. The company earns interest income by providing various loans, such as consumer loans, commercial loans, and real estate loans, and investing in securities. Non-interest income is derived from service charges on deposit accounts, trust and asset management fees, card transaction fees, and other banking services. Additionally, Commerce Bancshares benefits from strategic partnerships and a focus on cross-selling its products to enhance customer relationships and drive earnings.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Commerce Bancshares exhibits strong financial health, characterized by robust profit margins, effective revenue growth, and prudent cash flow management. The company's debt-free balance sheet and high return on equity underscore financial stability and operational efficiency. While the equity ratio suggests potential leverage considerations, the overall financial trajectory remains positive, positioning the company well within the banking industry.

Income Statement

Commerce Bancshares has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 6.4% increase in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at 100%, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin is solid at 35.8%, reflecting strong profitability. The significant increase in EBIT margin from 44.9% in 2023 to 98.5% in 2024 shows improved operational performance. The absence of EBITDA data in 2024 limits full margin analysis.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with no debt in 2024, showcasing prudent financial management. The equity ratio stands at 10.3%, reflecting a moderate equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity is impressive at 15.9%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. However, the relatively low equity ratio suggests that the company could be more leveraged than peers.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow grew by 44.2% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.1, indicating healthy cash conversion from net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable at 1.1, underlining efficient cash utilization. However, the substantial financing cash outflows in previous years point to potential liquidity management challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.47B	1.38B	1.51B	1.43B	1.35B
	Gross Profit
1.47B	1.38B	1.51B	1.43B	1.35B
	EBIT
679.49M	619.73M	677.55M	676.48M	441.35M
	EBITDA
733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M	484.95M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M	354.06M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
10.21B	2.69B	13.08B	18.73B	14.63B
	Total Assets
32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B	32.92B
	Total Debt
56.00K	1.40M	9.67M	12.56M	802.00K
	Net Debt
-748.36M	-2.68B	-831.96M	-4.26B	-2.18B
	Total Liabilities
28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	12.56M	802.00K
	Stockholders Equity
3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B	3.40B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M	590.86M
	Operating Cash Flow
577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M	623.99M
	Investing Cash Flow
483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B	-5.39B
	Financing Cash Flow
-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B	6.07B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 63.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 63.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.21, above the 50-day MA of 61.27, and above the 200-day MA of 61.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PNFP	78 Outperform	$8.52B	17.76	7.77%	0.82%	8.09%	-11.31%
CBSH	76 Outperform	$8.67B	16.13	16.82%	1.61%	-4.27%	17.70%
WTFC	75 Outperform	$8.17B	12.07	11.58%	1.52%	6.79%	4.65%
CMA	75 Outperform	$7.70B	11.11	11.11%	4.89%	-9.81%	5.22%
WBS	73 Outperform	$8.83B	11.81	8.59%	3.04%	2.60%	-9.07%
UMBF	72 Outperform	$8.11B	13.43	8.33%	1.49%	20.50%	5.69%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.78B	9.87	7.67%	17015.06%	12.34%	-5.99%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

Commerce Bancshares held its Annual Meeting on April 25, 2025, where shareholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors resulted in Benjamin F. Rassieur, III being elected to the 2027 Class, and four directors, Timothy S. Dunn, June McAllister Fowler, Todd R. Schnuck, and Christine B. Taylor, being elected to the 2028 Class. Additionally, the shareholders ratified the selection of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved the company’s executive compensation in a non-binding vote.