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Casey's General
(NASDAQ:CASY)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$665.00
▼(-19.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
CASY scores in the mid-range primarily because fundamentals and the latest earnings commentary are constructive (growth in earnings/EBITDA, strong operating cash flow, and store expansion/integration progress), but the technical setup is notably weak with clear bearish momentum. Valuation also limits upside support, with a relatively high P/E and a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong earnings and revenue growth
Strong growth in earnings, EBITDA, and revenue indicates expanding operating scale and continued customer demand. If sustained, this performance can support reinvestment, strengthen Casey’s competitive position, and improve its ability to compound earnings across the store network.
Negative Factors
Thin and variable operating margins
Low and fluctuating margins leave Casey’s earnings more exposed to changes in fuel economics, merchandise mix, labor, and other operating costs. Even with revenue growth, modest cost pressure or pricing disruption could reduce profit conversion and make results less predictable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong earnings and revenue growth
Strong growth in earnings, EBITDA, and revenue indicates expanding operating scale and continued customer demand. If sustained, this performance can support reinvestment, strengthen Casey’s competitive position, and improve its ability to compound earnings across the store network.
Read all positive factors
Casey's General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Shows how revenue splits between fuel, merchandise, and foodservice, helping you judge whether growth is coming from high-margin in-store sales or low-margin fuel. Shifts toward food and prepared items generally signal better long-term profitability and customer loyalty.
Shows how revenue splits between fuel, merchandise, and foodservice, helping you judge whether growth is coming from high-margin in-store sales or low-margin fuel. Shifts toward food and prepared items generally signal better long-term profitability and customer loyalty.
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The Fly
The FlyCasey's General (CASY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.41B
Dividend Yield0.37%
Average Volume (3M)685.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.8
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth13.78%
EPS Growth33.28%
CountryUS
Employees49,848
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)20.88
Shares Outstanding36,960,167
10 Day Avg. Volume610,014
30 Day Avg. Volume685,872
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.38
Price to Book (P/B)7.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio42.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$806.43Price Target Upside-2.24% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)21.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.90B
Casey's General Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casey's General Stores, Inc. engages in the provision of management and operation of convenience stores and gasoline stations. It provides self-service gasoline, a wide selection of grocery items, and an array of freshly prepared food items. The f...
How the Company Makes Money
Casey’s makes money primarily through a combination of (1) retail fuel sales and (2) in-store sales of merchandise and prepared food. (1) Fuel: The company generates revenue by selling gasoline and diesel at its convenience store locations. Profit...
Casey's General Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Casey's reported substantial growth in EPS, net income, EBITDA, revenue, gross profit, prepared food, fuel margin, rewards membership, and remodeled-store performance, while maintaining strong liquidity and progressing toward its store growth and integration goals. The main challenges were category pressure in beer, snacks, and cigarettes; fuel-margin volatility; higher operating expenses; lower free cash flow; and temporary Cefco remodel disruption. Management characterized the remodel impacts as expected and remained confident in the strategic plan and growth opportunities.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and EBITDA Growth
Diluted EPS was $7.37, up 28% from the prior year; net income was $274 million, up 27%; and EBITDA was $485 million, up 17% year over year and 40% on a 2-year stack basis.
Negative Updates
Remodel-Related Same-Store Headwinds
Approximately 1% of the store base experienced disruption from Cefco remodeling. The remodels created an approximate 25-basis-point headwind to inside same-store sales and an approximate 50-basis-point headwind to same-store fuel gallons. The affected stores were disrupted for four to six weeks, and management did not expect the remodel lift to meaningfully offset the disruption in the second quarter or probably the third quarter; the inflection was expected more in the fourth quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and EBITDA Growth
Diluted EPS was $7.37, up 28% from the prior year; net income was $274 million, up 27%; and EBITDA was $485 million, up 17% year over year and 40% on a 2-year stack basis.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said August same store volumes, both inside and outside the store, were consistent with first quarter results and within the annual guidance range; Fuel CPG is in the low $0.40 per gallon, current cheese costs are slightly favorable versus the prior year, and second quarter operating expense increase is expected to be similar to the first quarter. Same store gallons guidance remains down a percent to plus a percent, the company is on track to meet its 120 store unit goal for the fiscal year, assuming half from new industry builds and half from small deal M&A, and plans to update annual guidance on its second quarter earnings call. Approximately 80% of cheese costs are covered through early into the first quarter of next fiscal year, with the 3 out quarters covered in a modest tailwind to margin each of each of those 3 quarters; Cefco remodels are expected throughout the fiscal year, with the inflection point probably more fourth quarter.Casey's General Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.67B | 17.56B | 15.94B | 14.86B | 15.09B | 12.95B |
| Gross Profit | 4.44B | 4.32B | 3.75B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 2.76B |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.39B | 1.21B | 1.07B | 960.29M | 801.29M |
| Net Income | 772.81M | 714.45M | 546.52M | 501.97M | 446.69M | 339.79M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.12B | 8.94B | 8.44B | 6.35B | 5.94B | 5.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 384.07M | 522.99M | 326.66M | 206.48M | 378.87M | 158.88M |
| Total Debt | 2.89B | 2.91B | 2.96B | 1.75B | 1.67B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.03B | 4.98B | 4.93B | 3.33B | 3.28B | 3.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.09B | 3.95B | 3.51B | 3.02B | 2.66B | 2.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 648.93M | 721.62M | 584.63M | 370.95M | 405.38M | 462.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.39B | 1.38B | 1.09B | 892.95M | 881.95M | 788.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -888.11M | -755.43M | -1.73B | -825.36M | -545.03M | -1.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -435.10M | -425.78M | 755.99M | -239.98M | -116.93M | 191.59M |
Casey's General Technical Analysis
Negative
824.92
Price Trends
726.96
Negative
775.13
Negative
733.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-25.16
Negative
47.20
Neutral
82.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CASY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 824.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 607.42, above the 50-day MA of 726.96, and above the 200-day MA of 733.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -25.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CASY.
Casey's General Risk Analysis
Casey's General disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casey's General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casey's General Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $28.32B | 24.14 | 57.79% | 1.19% | 2.24% | 7.35% | |
74 Outperform | $11.24B | 18.68 | 27.73% | ― | 25.56% | 126.16% | |
64 Neutral | $23.41B | 30.76 | 19.68% | 0.37% | 13.78% | 33.28% | |
64 Neutral | $16.94B | 17.44 | 39.30% | 2.84% | 3.98% | -5.90% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $9.40B | 15.64 | 94.56% | 0.49% | 10.27% | 35.33% | |
49 Neutral | $474.55M | 50.68 | 3.40% | 2.91% | -2.05% | -1.61% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CASY
Casey's General
642.28
87.54
15.78%
MUSA
Murphy USA
518.22
142.28
37.85%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
33.48
-19.48
-36.79%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
239.00
60.07
33.57%
FIVE
Five Below
209.73
71.24
51.44%
ARKO
ARKO Corp
4.12
0.34
8.91%
Casey's General Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Casey’s General Posts Strong First-Quarter Earnings Growth
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
At its annual shareholders’ meeting on September 2, 2026, Casey’s shareholders elected eleven directors to serve until the next annual meeting and approved the ratification of KPMG LLP as the company’s independent auditor for the...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Casey’s Investor Day Highlights Convenience QSR Growth Strategy
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
Casey’s General Stores, Inc., a leading U.S. convenience store and quick-service hybrid operator with about 3,000 company-owned locations concentrated in smaller towns, showcased its scale, differentiated prepared food offerings and vertical...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.