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Mission Produce
(NASDAQ:AVO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▼(-0.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
AVO scores lower mainly due to pressured profitability and weak cash conversion (near break-even TTM margins and slightly negative free cash flow) alongside a very expensive P/E multiple. These are partially offset by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and a more constructive second-half outlook from management (higher EBITDA guidance and a $25M synergy target from the Calavo integration). Technically, the stock shows neutral momentum with no clear trend signal.
Positive Factors
Integrated global avocado platform
Multi-region sourcing, owned production, packing, ripening, quality control, and logistics give Mission control across important parts of the value chain. This operating breadth can improve reliability for customers, support differentiated programs, and strengthen resilience across changing harvest regions and seasons.
Negative Factors
Severe pricing and margin pressure
Mission’s earnings remain highly sensitive to avocado pricing, fruit mix, and supply conditions. The sharp price decline compressed gross profit despite higher volume, showing that growth in units does not reliably translate into profit when oversupply or sizing mismatches weaken per-unit economics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated global avocado platform
Multi-region sourcing, owned production, packing, ripening, quality control, and logistics give Mission control across important parts of the value chain. This operating breadth can improve reliability for customers, support differentiated programs, and strengthen resilience across changing harvest regions and seasons.
Read all positive factors
Mission Produce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMission Produce (AVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)629.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)427.6
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-10.53%
EPS Growth-37.53%
CountryUS
Employees3,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding88,319,810
10 Day Avg. Volume526,434
30 Day Avg. Volume629,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio22.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside34.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.40B
Mission Produce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mission Produce, Inc. is a prominent global entity that oversees the entire avocado value chain, from cultivation and processing to packaging and ultimate distribution across the United States and internationally. The company operates through two ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mission Produce generates revenue primarily by selling fresh avocados to customers (typically retailers, foodservice operators, and wholesalers). Its core revenue stream is the marketing and distribution of avocados it sources from third-party gro...
Mission Produce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 08, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: near-term financial results were weak (revenue down 24%, adjusted EBITDA and net income materially lower) driven by a temporary oversupply and size-curve mismatch that compressed margins. Offsetting those near-term negatives were meaningful commercial positives (15% volume growth, strong category expansion with 1.6 million new households), an early close of the Calavo acquisition with a clear $25M synergy target, stronger second-half guidance (Q3 EBITDA $28–32M; H2 EBITDA $84–88M), and operational levers (multi-region sourcing, Peruvian production ramp and prepared foods opportunity) expected to drive margin recovery and longer-term growth.Positive Updates
Volume Growth and Category Expansion
Avocado volume sold increased 15% year-over-year in Q2; U.S. avocado consumption rose by "strong double digits" versus last year and more than 1.6 million new households entered the category during the quarter, supporting longer-term demand tailwinds.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Fiscal Q2 revenue was $290.9 million, down 24% year-over-year driven largely by a steep decline in avocado selling prices.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Volume Growth and Category Expansion
Avocado volume sold increased 15% year-over-year in Q2; U.S. avocado consumption rose by "strong double digits" versus last year and more than 1.6 million new households entered the category during the quarter, supporting longer-term demand tailwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mission’s guidance calls for consolidated fiscal Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $28–$32 million (including a partial-quarter Calavo contribution) and consolidated second-half adjusted EBITDA of $84–$88 million; management does not expect material synergy realization in Q3 but targets at least $25 million of annualized cost synergies within 18 months with benefits beginning in Q4 and ramping into fiscal 2027. For Q3 the industry is expected to see avocado volumes up ~5–10% year-over-year while pricing is forecast to be roughly 15% below the $1.75/lb average in Q3 FY25; Mission’s Peruvian exportable production is expected at 120–130 million pounds (vs. 105 million last year) with sales weighted to Q4. The company reiterated fiscal-year CapEx near $45 million (including modest Calavo spend), reported cash of $33 million as of 4/30/2026 and $21 million net cash used in operating activities in the first six months, and noted recent Q2 figures of $290.9 million revenue (down 24%), $7.1 million adjusted EBITDA, $0.8 million adjusted net income ($0.01 per diluted share), and 15% avocado volume growth in Q2.Mission Produce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.23B | 953.90M | 1.05B | 891.70M |
| Gross Profit | 152.50M | 160.70M | 152.50M | 83.30M | 89.80M | 124.50M |
| EBITDA | 53.10M | 105.90M | 110.70M | 43.50M | 4.40M | 94.40M |
| Net Income | 1.60M | 37.70M | 36.70M | -2.80M | -34.60M | 44.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.61B | 983.00M | 971.50M | 914.80M | 879.50M | 873.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.10M | 64.80M | 58.00M | 42.90M | 52.80M | 84.50M |
| Total Debt | 21.70M | 200.90M | 217.30M | 252.70M | 214.10M | 213.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 807.00M | 363.10M | 394.40M | 386.50M | 356.60M | 339.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 799.80M | 587.30M | 547.30M | 503.60M | 502.10M | 534.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.30M | 37.20M | 61.20M | -20.60M | -26.00M | -26.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.30M | 88.60M | 93.40M | 29.20M | 35.20M | 47.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -290.70M | -51.90M | -33.50M | -54.10M | -51.40M | -70.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.30M | -29.50M | -43.80M | 14.30M | -21.80M | -11.50M |
Mission Produce Technical Analysis
Positive
13.03
Price Trends
12.89
Negative
12.58
Positive
12.83
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
50.85
Neutral
41.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.92, above the 50-day MA of 12.89, and above the 200-day MA of 12.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVO.
Mission Produce Risk Analysis
Mission Produce disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mission Produce reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mission Produce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
AVO
Mission Produce
12.87
-0.21
-1.61%
ANDE
The Andersons
70.92
31.53
80.05%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
44.93
16.27
56.77%
Mission Produce Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Mission Produce Advances $100 Million Share Buyback Program
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
Mission Produce, Inc. previously announced on June 8, 2026, that its board of directors had authorized a $100 million stock repurchase program as part of its capital allocation strategy. During the fiscal third quarter to date, the company has rep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.