Astronics (ATRO) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.02–$1.04 billion and expects Q3 sales of $265–$275 million with Q4 revenue modestly higher, targeting adjusted operating/EBITDA margins in the high teens (Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin = 19.8%, adjusted operating margin = 16.6%); they forecast ~$35 million of 2026 revenue from the MV‑75 FLRAA program, expect the $44.7M Army 4549 radio test production award to ramp to full‑rate by the end of Q4 (supporting ~18 months of deliveries) and to drive Test margins closer to Aerospace levels, and noted Q2 bookings of $306M with Aerospace bookings $243.1M (book‑to‑bill 1.02) and Test bookings $63.1M (book‑to‑bill 2.78) leaving backlogs of $657.2M (Aerospace) and $123.3M (Test); other guidance items include R&D of roughly $10–$12M per quarter, full‑year CapEx of $40–$45M (YTD $16.9M), expected future IEEPA tariff refunds of ~$6–$8M (timing uncertain) offset by an ongoing tariff run‑rate of ~$3–$4M/quarter, an expectation to be free‑cash‑flow positive for the remainder of the year, available liquidity of $253.2M and long‑term debt of $310.3M, and potential additional deferred tax valuation allowance release of roughly $40–$50M pending sufficient future taxable income.