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Ast Spacemobile, Inc. (ASTS)
:ASTS
US Market

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) AI Stock Analysis

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AST SpaceMobile

(NASDAQ:ASTS)

54Neutral
AST SpaceMobile's overall score reflects a company with promising strategic initiatives but facing significant financial and operational challenges. The financial performance is notably weak, characterized by negative profitability and cash flow issues. Technical indicators suggest some upward momentum, but valuation metrics and regulatory hurdles present concerns. Despite these challenges, positive developments in strategic partnerships and a solid cash position offer potential upside.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a satellite communications company focused on building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by standard mobile phones. Operating within the telecommunications and aerospace sectors, the company's core product is its satellite network, designed to provide seamless mobile connectivity across the globe, especially in underserved and remote areas. AST SpaceMobile aims to eliminate coverage gaps and enhance connectivity for users worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyAST SpaceMobile makes money primarily through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) who pay for access to its satellite network to enhance their service offerings. The company enters into agreements with MNOs, allowing them to use its satellite infrastructure to provide broader and more reliable coverage to their customers. This model allows AST SpaceMobile to earn revenue through service fees or revenue-sharing agreements with these operators. Additionally, the company may explore direct service offerings and strategic partnerships to expand its revenue streams as its network becomes operational.

AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AST SpaceMobile's financial performance shows significant profitability and cash flow challenges. Despite a strong equity base, persistent net losses and negative cash flow indicate operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
35
Negative
AST SpaceMobile's income statement reveals significant challenges in profitability. With a consistent negative EBIT and EBITDA, the company struggles with operational efficiency. Revenue growth is volatile, and net profit margins are deeply negative, indicating high expenses relative to revenue. The gross profit margin appears positive for the latest period but is overshadowed by the substantial net losses.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a mixed picture of financial stability. The company has a favorable equity ratio with significant stockholders' equity and low debt levels, but the high net debt position indicates reliance on external financing. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the consistent erosion of equity through net losses presents a risk to long-term financial health.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
AST SpaceMobile faces cash flow challenges with persistently negative free cash flow, indicating that operational and capital expenditures exceed cash generated from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showcasing inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. Despite high financing cash flow, the company's free cash flow remains significantly negative, highlighting cash management issues.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.42M0.0013.82M12.40M5.97M
Gross Profit
4.42M0.007.11M4.84M2.94M
EBIT
-242.76M-222.37M-164.88M-102.51M-24.26M
EBITDA
-442.98M-166.53M-97.06M-83.83M-23.47M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-300.08M-87.56M-31.64M-73.26M-24.41M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
564.99M85.62M238.59M321.79M42.78M
Total Assets
954.56M360.89M438.37M443.94M99.64M
Total Debt
173.00M72.87M12.53M13.16M7.04M
Net Debt
-391.99M-12.75M-226.06M-308.63M-35.73M
Total Liabilities
285.42M147.33M78.55M91.96M19.66M
Stockholders Equity
479.12M98.99M133.53M100.28M77.50M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-300.27M-267.75M-213.75M-134.89M-53.21M
Operating Cash Flow
-126.14M-148.94M-156.46M-80.09M-22.80M
Investing Cash Flow
-174.13M-118.81M-31.35M-54.79M-30.41M
Financing Cash Flow
779.97M116.73M102.34M416.94M69.66M

AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price26.66
Price Trends
50DMA
24.86
Positive
100DMA
24.77
Positive
200DMA
25.19
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.70
Negative
RSI
57.86
Neutral
STOCH
49.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.61, above the 50-day MA of 24.86, and above the 200-day MA of 25.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.

AST SpaceMobile Risk Analysis

AST SpaceMobile disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AST SpaceMobile reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$1.23B29.457.30%-4.47%195.28%
68
Neutral
$11.55B150.502.76%-7.29%-64.31%
60
Neutral
$11.59B10.39-7.23%2.94%7.46%-10.76%
58
Neutral
$5.41B-42.79%3.58%-22.74%
56
Neutral
$1.41B-8.49%19.02%76.67%
54
Neutral
$8.75B-88.95%-85.21%
52
Neutral
$6.72B-1.08%-23.85%88.39%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
26.66
21.38
404.92%
CIEN
Ciena
81.24
32.37
66.24%
DGII
Digi International
33.29
6.59
24.68%
SATS
Echostar
23.39
4.75
25.48%
VSAT
ViaSat
10.92
-8.46
-43.65%
LITE
Lumentum Holdings
77.95
30.76
65.18%

AST SpaceMobile Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.84%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant operational progress and strategic partnerships, which are promising for future growth. However, the increase in capital expenditures and dependency on successful satellite deployments pose financial and operational risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025 and Revenue Growth
AST SpaceMobile reported a strong start to the year with revenue beginning to come in. The company is executing on satellite manufacturing, commercialization, and regulatory initiatives with five scheduled launches over the next six to nine months.
Major Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Plans
The company plans to deploy over 60 satellites during 2025 and 2026, enabling continuous coverage in key markets such as the United States, Europe, and Japan. They aim to achieve a manufacturing cadence of six satellites per month by Q4 2025.
Successful Commercial and Government Contracts
AST SpaceMobile reported successful calls with partners such as Rakuten, AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone, and secured a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency. They also signed a new contract with another government agency.
Financial Position and Capital Raises
The company ended Q1 with $874.5 million in cash, up from $567.5 million at the end of Q4 2024, driven by a convertible notes offering and an ATM facility. They have plans for a new $500 million ATM facility and are exploring non-dilutive financing options.
Negative Updates
Increased Capital Expenditures and Costs
Q1 2025 capital expenditures were approximately $124 million, with expectations to increase significantly due to manufacturing and launch costs. Average capital costs per satellite increased to $21 million to $23 million, driven by higher launch and material costs.
Challenges in Spectrum Acquisition
AST SpaceMobile is pursuing additional spectrum to enhance service capability, requiring strategic planning and potential delays as they navigate regulatory approvals and financing complexities.
Dependency on Successful Deployments for Revenue Targets
Projected revenue of $50 million to $75 million for the second half of 2025 is contingent upon successful satellite launches and deployment, gateway equipment sales, and service activations, which introduces risk.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, AST SpaceMobile made significant strides towards commercializing its global cellular broadband network in space. The company outlined plans to deploy over 60 satellites during 2025 and 2026, aiming for continuous coverage in key markets, including the United States, Europe, and Japan. Five orbital launches are anticipated over the next six to nine months, with an average launch cadence of every one to two months. AST SpaceMobile also reported a manufacturing target of building 40 Block 2 BlueBird satellites and achieving a manufacturing cadence of six satellites per month by the fourth quarter of the year. Financially, the company ended the quarter with $874.5 million in cash, driven by a $403 million convertible notes offering. Revenue guidance for the second half of the year was set between $50 million to $75 million, supported by gateway equipment bookings and government contracts. The company continues to explore non-dilutive financing options and has established a new $500 million ATM facility to support its ambitious plans.

AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AST SpaceMobile Reports 2024 Financial Results and Growth
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

AST SpaceMobile announced its business update and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting significant advancements in its commercialization efforts and strategic agreements. The company secured a long-term commercial agreement with Vodafone and a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency, enhancing its market position in the direct-to-device satellite communications industry. AST SpaceMobile also achieved operational status for its first five BlueBird satellites and is accelerating satellite manufacturing to expand its network. Financially, the company reported nearly $1 billion in cash and a decrease in operating expenses, positioning it well for future growth.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.