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Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) AI Stock Analysis
Academy Sports and Outdoors
(NASDAQ:ASO)
ASO scores well on valuation and a constructive earnings outlook (raised EPS and margin guidance), supported by a strong technical uptrend. The main constraints are normalized/eroded margins versus prior peak years, moderate leverage for a retailer, and momentum indicators that are currently overbought, increasing near-term volatility risk.
Academy Sports and Outdoors Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Total StoresIndicates the number of retail locations, providing insight into the company's market presence and expansion strategy. More stores can signal growth and increased customer reach.
The footprint has shifted from slow, steady expansion to a material acceleration in openings over the last 18–24 months, aligning with management’s back‑half rollout cadence. That growth underpins the loyalty and omnichannel push and helps explain the e‑commerce tailwind, but it also creates near‑term risk: concentrated opening costs could pressure SG&A and operating leverage, and with units-per-store softening plus tariff/fuel margin headwinds, investors should watch whether new stores drive durable sales density or simply add cost.
The FlyAcademy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $3.75B
- Dividend Yield
- 0.95%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.70M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 9.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.09
- Revenue Growth
- 3.68%
- EPS Growth
- 12.68%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 22,000
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
Academy Sports and Outdoors Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a significant retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products throughout the United States. The company offers a vast and diverse inventory, encompassing ev...
How the Company Makes Money
Academy Sports + Outdoors generates revenue primarily by selling merchandise to consumers through its physical stores and online channels. Its core revenue streams come from product category sales such as (1) sports and recreation goods (e.g., equipm...
Academy Sports and Outdoors Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly constructive. Academy reported sales, earnings, e-commerce, credit-card, cash-flow, new-store, and strategic-initiative progress, reaffirmed sales guidance, and raised gross-margin and EPS guidance. These strengths were tempered by a slightly negative Q2 comp, worsening traffic among households earning less than $50,000, footwear and softgoods pressure, higher promotional activity, elevated fuel and freight costs, and the non-recurring nature of tariff-refund benefits. Overall, the positive operating and financial developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 sales guidance of $6.23 billion-$6.36 billion, or growth of 3%-5%, and comp sales of flat to +2%; raised gross margin rate guidance to 35.5%-36.0%; affirmed net income guidance of $390 million-$415 million; raised earnings per share guidance to $6.05-$6.45 and adjusted earnings per share to $6.50-$6.90; and expects adjusted free cash flow of $300 million-$350 million. At the midpoint, total sales are expected to be up 4%, comp sales to be up approximately 1%, gross margin expansion of 100 basis points, net income to grow by approximately 7%, and EPS growth of over 12% when compared to fiscal year 2025. The company expects fall gross margin roughly flat, 22-24 stores this year, 11 additional stores in Q3, and continued share repurchases, though not to the same level as the first half of the year; its long-range plan calls for a 5% sales CAGR, double digit EPS growth, and high single digit unitary growth over the next five years.
Academy Sports and Outdoors Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements point to solid but not best-in-class fundamentals: revenue rebounded sharply and profitability remains positive, but margins and returns are meaningfully below 2022–2023 peaks. Leverage is moderate for a retailer (debt-to-equity ~0.92) and improving, while cash generation is strong in absolute terms yet cash conversion and consistency are only moderate.
Income Statement
66PositiveBalance Sheet
60NeutralCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.19B | 6.05B | 5.93B | 6.16B | 6.40B | 6.77B |
| Gross Profit | 2.22B | 2.11B | 2.01B | 2.11B | 2.21B | 2.35B |
| EBITDA | 723.48M | 645.14M | 693.17M | 820.14M | 971.52M | 1.01B |
| Net Income | 395.85M | 376.77M | 418.45M | 519.19M | 628.00M | 671.38M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.51B | 5.28B | 4.90B | 4.68B | 4.60B | 4.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 298.21M | 330.32M | 288.93M | 347.92M | 337.14M | 486.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 1.89B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.77B | 1.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.33B | 3.11B | 2.90B | 2.72B | 2.97B | 3.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.18B | 2.17B | 2.00B | 1.95B | 1.63B | 1.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 330.88M | 222.13M | 328.49M | 327.49M | 443.20M | 597.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 547.77M | 434.80M | 528.08M | 535.78M | 552.00M | 673.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -175.60M | -172.04M | -186.12M | -206.14M | -108.81M | -76.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -374.82M | -221.37M | -400.95M | -318.87M | -592.05M | -488.85M |
Academy Sports and Outdoors Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.56, above the 50-day MA of 51.63, and above the 200-day MA of 52.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASO.
Academy Sports and Outdoors Risk Analysis
Academy Sports and Outdoors disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Academy Sports and Outdoors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksAcademy Sports and Outdoors Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
AMZN74Outperform
FIVE74Outperform- ASO69Neutral
TSCO60Neutral
DKS58Neutral
SPWH51Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 74Outperform | $2.66T | 19.99 | 26.71% | ― | 15.35% | 73.92% |
| FIVE | 74Outperform | $13.16B | 21.03 | 27.73% | ― | 25.56% | 126.16% |
| ASO | 69Neutral | $3.81B | 9.94 | 18.38% | 0.95% | 3.68% | 12.68% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| TSCO | 60Neutral | $18.40B | 18.87 | 37.64% | 2.71% | 3.53% | -10.44% |
| DKS | 58Neutral | $12.65B | 14.46 | 14.99% | 3.62% | 53.54% | -35.49% |
| SPWH | 51Neutral | $42.66M | -0.94 | -26.33% | ― | 0.84% | -26.47% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports And Outdoors, Inc. | 60.86 | 14.15 | 30.29% | |
| AMZN | Amazon.Com, Inc. | 250.69 | 0.49 | 0.20% | |
| DKS | Dick's Sporting Goods Inc | 137.08 | -76.03 | -35.68% | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | 35.10 | -17.55 | -33.34% | |
| FIVE | Five Below Inc | 236.19 | 80.25 | 51.46% | |
| SPWH | Sportsman's Warehouse | 1.16 | -1.17 | -50.21% |
Academy Sports and Outdoors Corporate Events
Academy Sports Posts Strong Q2 Growth, Raises EPS Outlook
PositiveAcademy Sports and Outdoors reported on September 9, 2026 that net sales for the second quarter ended August 1, 2026 rose 3.0% to $1.65 billion, with e-commerce revenue up 12.8%, while comparable sales declined 0.4%. Diluted GAAP EPS increased 17.3%...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 15, 2026