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Alector
(NASDAQ:ALEC)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-14.53% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance—shrinking revenue, very large losses, negative equity, and substantial ongoing cash burn. Technical indicators also lean negative with the stock below key moving averages and a negative MACD. Offsetting some of the risk, recent corporate events (Genentech licensing deal and new equity financing) improve funding visibility and strategic positioning, but do not fully overcome the underlying financial strain.
Positive Factors
Genentech partnership
The Genentech agreement validates a lead program while transferring development, regulatory, manufacturing, and commercialization responsibilities to a larger partner. The upfront payment and potential milestone and royalty economics can support Alector’s pipeline while reducing execution demands on its own resources.
Negative Factors
Heavy cash burn
Sustained cash outflows of this magnitude indicate that operations and development activities are not self-funding. Continued investment in clinical programs will therefore require substantial external financing, partnering proceeds, or asset monetization, leaving less flexibility if funding conditions or milestones change.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Genentech partnership
The Genentech agreement validates a lead program while transferring development, regulatory, manufacturing, and commercialization responsibilities to a larger partner. The upfront payment and potential milestone and royalty economics can support Alector’s pipeline while reducing execution demands on its own resources.
Read all positive factors
Alector (ALEC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$271.31M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.11
Revenue Growth-82.91%
EPS Growth6.27%
CountryUS
Employees103
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.10
Shares Outstanding148,256,910
10 Day Avg. Volume2,229,045
30 Day Avg. Volume5,077,810
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)5.24
Price to Sales (P/S)7.63
P/FCF Ratio-0.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.90Price Target Upside66.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.57M
Alector Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alector, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in pioneering of immuno-neurology. It develops portfolio of innate immune system programs, designed to functionally repair genetic mutations and enable the rejuven...
How the Company Makes Money
Alector primarily generates revenue from collaboration and licensing arrangements rather than from product sales, because it is a clinical-stage company and does not have a broad portfolio of commercially marketed drugs. Its earnings have historic...
Alector Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented several positive developments, including strong financial health, upcoming trial data, and completion of enrollment for a key program. However, significant challenges remain, such as regulatory hurdles and the complexity of diagnosing and treating FTD. The balance of promising advancements and existing challenges suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook.Positive Updates
Upcoming INFRONT-3 Trial Data
Alector is anticipating top-line data from their Phase III INFRONT-3 trial of latozinemab by mid-Q4 2025. This trial is pivotal as it targets frontotemporal dementia due to the GRN gene mutation, a rare form of dementia with no approved therapy.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Challenges
The FDA requested a change in the statistical analysis plan for the INFRONT-3 trial to include progranulin as a co-primary endpoint, which requires statistical significance on both co-primary endpoints for the study to be positive.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Upcoming INFRONT-3 Trial Data
Alector is anticipating top-line data from their Phase III INFRONT-3 trial of latozinemab by mid-Q4 2025. This trial is pivotal as it targets frontotemporal dementia due to the GRN gene mutation, a rare form of dementia with no approved therapy.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Alector Second Quarter and Midyear 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. They reported a strong cash position of $307.3 million, which is expected to fund operations into the second half of 2027. For fiscal year 2025, Alector anticipates collaboration revenue to be between $13 million and $18 million, with total research and development expenses projected at $130 million to $140 million. General and administrative expenses are forecasted to range from $55 million to $65 million. The company is focused on advancing its late-stage clinical programs, particularly the Phase III INFRONT-3 trial for latozinemab, with pivotal data expected by mid-fourth quarter. They are also progressing the Phase II trial of AL101 for early Alzheimer's disease, with trial completion expected in 2026. Alector highlighted their proprietary technology platform, which supports their preclinical pipeline, including a brain-penetrant anti-amyloid beta antibody for Alzheimer's and an engineered GCase enzyme replacement therapy for Parkinson's disease.Alector Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
15
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.86M | 21.05M | 100.56M | 97.06M | 133.62M | 207.09M |
| Gross Profit | 13.86M | 11.38M | -85.38M | 88.21M | 133.62M | 17.68M |
| EBITDA | -110.93M | -133.10M | -110.08M | -116.33M | -121.58M | -28.01M |
| Net Income | -117.85M | -142.93M | -119.05M | -130.39M | -133.31M | -36.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 202.85M | 293.24M | 468.30M | 621.83M | 787.65M | 814.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 172.80M | 256.02M | 413.40M | 548.86M | 712.85M | 735.25M |
| Total Debt | 32.76M | 36.23M | 42.52M | 38.92M | 43.33M | 47.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 212.82M | 262.59M | 341.50M | 487.67M | 573.21M | 513.93M |
| Stockholders Equity | -9.97M | 30.65M | 126.80M | 134.16M | 214.44M | 300.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -158.39M | -184.07M | -231.16M | -186.54M | -24.45M | 295.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -158.23M | -184.03M | -229.91M | -184.16M | -20.33M | 298.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 153.21M | 196.60M | 107.13M | 101.92M | -159.01M | -49.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 20.17M | 20.21M | 81.54M | 2.55M | 4.51M | 30.30M |
Alector Technical Analysis
Positive
2.34
Price Trends
2.09
Positive
1.89
Positive
2.03
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
57.34
Neutral
43.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.91, above the 50-day MA of 2.09, and above the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALEC.
Alector Risk Analysis
Alector disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alector reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alector Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $235.10M | -4.44 | -99.17% | ― | -33.68% | 4.48% | |
45 Neutral | $271.31M | -1.66 | -531.04% | ― | -82.91% | 6.27% | |
45 Neutral | $73.82M | -0.32 | -242.28% | ― | ― | 21.31% | |
42 Neutral | $121.74M | -2.07 | 72.64% | ― | 51.98% | 17.68% | |
41 Neutral | $1.08B | 0.10 | -91.63% | ― | ― | 69.48% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ALEC
Alector
2.10
0.60
40.00%
ACIU
AC Immune SA
2.25
-1.27
-36.08%
FHTX
Foghorn Therapeutics
2.05
-2.40
-53.93%
VOR
Vor Biopharma
19.54
-7.38
-27.41%
NMRA
Neumora Therapeutics, Inc.
0.37
-2.22
-85.79%
Alector Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alector Announces $75 Million Common Stock Offering
Positive
Oct 16, 2026
On October 15 and 16, 2026, Alector, Inc. priced an underwritten offering of 36,600,000 shares of its common stock at $2.05 per share, representing a premium of about 7.3% over its October 15 closing price. The transaction is expected to generate ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alector Reprices Employee Stock Options to Boost Retention
Neutral
Oct 14, 2026
On October 13, 2026, Alector’s board approved a broad repricing of employee stock options that were underwater, resetting the exercise price of approximately 4.05 million options held by continuing employees to $1.87 per share, the company&#...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alector Licenses AL050 GCase Program to Genentech
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Alector entered a license agreement with Genentech granting exclusive worldwide rights to develop and commercialize its AL050 program, a brain-penetrant engineered GCase enzyme replacement therapy, with Genentech assuming re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.