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Alico
(NASDAQ:ALCO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▼(-5.05% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
ALCO scores in the mid-range primarily due to pressured financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and weak profitability despite positive cash flow), partially offset by a more constructive earnings-call outlook tied to land monetization, improved liquidity, and reiterated guidance. Technicals are broadly neutral and valuation is constrained by loss-driven negative P/E, with only modest support from the dividend yield and recent corporate actions.
Positive Factors
Active land monetization
Substantial, realized land-sale proceeds demonstrate the company can convert its large acreage into cash and realized gains. This materially improves liquidity and funds operations, buybacks, and optionality, a durable source of capital while agricultural revenue is restructured.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline after citrus exit
Deliberate wind-down of citrus removed a core, recurring revenue stream, leaving a much smaller underlying operating base. This structural revenue shrinkage increases reliance on lumpy land monetization and weakens predictable cash generation over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Active land monetization
Substantial, realized land-sale proceeds demonstrate the company can convert its large acreage into cash and realized gains. This materially improves liquidity and funds operations, buybacks, and optionality, a durable source of capital while agricultural revenue is restructured.
Read all positive factors
Alico (ALCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$306.81M
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)29.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-66.78%
EPS Growth86.61%
CountryUS
Employees199
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.47
Shares Outstanding7,416,327
10 Day Avg. Volume39,235
30 Day Avg. Volume29,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.57
Price to Sales (P/S)6.01
P/FCF Ratio18.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-7.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside4.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.85M
Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alico, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, functions as a prominent agribusiness and land management enterprise primarily within the United States. The company's operations are strategically divided into two core segments: Alico Citrus, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Alico makes money primarily through (1) citrus-related revenues and (2) land and resource management monetization. (1) Citrus operations: The company generates revenue by producing citrus fruit (notably oranges and related varieties) and selling i...
Alico Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a clear and meaningful operational and financial turnaround driven by strategic land monetization, a successful wind-down of capital-intensive citrus operations, improved adjusted EBITDA and a stronger balance sheet with extended runway. Significant regulatory progress (Collier County approval) and high land utilization underpin long-term value potential. Offsetting these positives are large year-over-year revenue declines driven by the citrus exit, dependence on land-sale gains to support near-term profitability, prolonged permitting and execution risk for major developments, and reduced near-term liquidity due to share repurchases. Overall, the company appears to be transitioning toward a development/land-monetization model with promising long-term upside but notable near-term revenue and timing risks.Positive Updates
Profitability Turnaround and Strong EBITDA Improvement
Net income of $11.4 million for the quarter (or $1.49 per diluted share) versus a prior-year net loss of $111.4 million (or $14.58 per diluted share). EBITDA was positive $16.7 million for the quarter versus negative $14.7 million in the prior-year quarter (a $31.4 million improvement). Adjusted EBITDA was $16.9 million versus $12.7 million a year ago, an increase of ~33%.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Reported Revenue
Total revenue for the quarter was $5.3 million versus $18.0 million in the prior-year quarter (down ~70.6%). For the six months revenue was $7.2 million versus $34.9 million a year ago (down ~79.4%). The decline is primarily due to the deliberate wind-down/exit of the capital-intensive citrus operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Profitability Turnaround and Strong EBITDA Improvement
Net income of $11.4 million for the quarter (or $1.49 per diluted share) versus a prior-year net loss of $111.4 million (or $14.58 per diluted share). EBITDA was positive $16.7 million for the quarter versus negative $14.7 million in the prior-year quarter (a $31.4 million improvement). Adjusted EBITDA was $16.9 million versus $12.7 million a year ago, an increase of ~33%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $14.0 million, updated year‑end cash guidance of about $40 million and net‑debt guidance of roughly $45 million (expecting to carry only the $2.5 million minimum on the revolver), while emphasizing the stronger quarter metrics that support this outlook: quarter‑end cash $52.9M, available borrowings ~$92.5M, total debt $85.5M and net debt $32.6M, working capital $52.2M and current ratio 9.63:1. For the quarter they reported revenue of $5.3M (YTD $7.2M), net income $11.4M, EBITDA $16.7M and adjusted EBITDA $16.9M, and noted land sales YTD $34.6M (including a $26.9M January sale of ~2,950 acres with a ~$19.8M gain) and $10M of buybacks through April (245,399 shares). Management reiterated portfolio metrics—~46,000 acres remaining (≈32,500 farmable with ~97% of farmable acres generating revenue, ~89% of total ag acres utilized), a 5,500‑acre development pipeline with estimated PV $335–$380M realizable in ~5 years, and a management NPV for the ~46,000 acres of $650–$750M—while targeting state approvals in late‑2026/early‑2027, federal approval by end‑2028 and potential construction in 2028–2029.Alico Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.42M | 44.07M | 46.64M | 39.85M | 91.95M | 108.56M |
| Gross Profit | -43.37M | -192.19M | -56.38M | 6.45M | -14.77M | 23.89M |
| EBITDA | 36.85M | -4.44M | 29.50M | 22.86M | 31.51M | 65.50M |
| Net Income | -18.98M | -147.33M | 6.97M | 1.83M | 12.46M | 34.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 199.86M | 201.53M | 398.72M | 428.35M | 409.25M | 433.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.88M | 38.13M | 3.15M | 1.06M | 865.00K | 886.00K |
| Total Debt | 82.96M | 85.55M | 92.12M | 128.70M | 110.88M | 125.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 92.73M | 93.53M | 142.42M | 177.98M | 160.39M | 183.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 102.38M | 103.03M | 251.16M | 244.99M | 243.74M | 244.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.66M | 14.62M | -48.37M | -22.91M | -14.21M | -5.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.89M | 20.13M | -30.50M | -6.25M | 6.52M | 16.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 36.73M | 24.14M | 68.18M | -4.12M | 22.47M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.40M | -8.78M | -37.98M | 13.20M | -29.01M | -32.04M |
Alico Technical Analysis
Positive
43.18
Price Trends
41.10
Positive
40.94
Positive
38.18
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
58.86
Neutral
52.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.66, above the 50-day MA of 41.10, and above the 200-day MA of 38.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.
Alico Risk Analysis
Alico disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alico Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $243.62M | 5.29 | 14.34% | ― | -32.43% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
54 Neutral | $306.81M | -16.80 | -18.22% | 0.55% | -66.78% | 86.61% | |
52 Neutral | $1.38B | 3,178.81 | 0.89% | 4.40% | -5.29% | -97.13% | |
49 Neutral | $238.07M | -5.83 | -24.54% | 1.99% | -25.01% | -1680.30% | |
49 Neutral | $348.82M | -125.62 | -0.70% | 3.39% | 0.76% | -105.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ALCO
Alico
41.37
7.90
23.59%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
9.55
0.63
7.05%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
13.13
-2.58
-16.43%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.00
0.86
75.44%
AFRI
Forafric Global
10.08
2.29
29.40%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.57
-0.29
-7.51%
Alico Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Alico Signs Long-Term Agricultural Lease with U.S. Sugar
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 18, 2026, Alico, Inc. entered into an agricultural lease agreement with United States Sugar Corporation for about 3,280 acres of land in Hendry County, Florida, with the lease term running from July 1, 2026 to June 30, 2027. U.S. Sugar has...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alico Declares Third-Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Alico, Inc.’s Board of Directors declared a third-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock, setting a shareholder-of-record date of July 2, 2026. The dividend is scheduled to be p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.