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Adecoagro SA
(NYSE:AGRO)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-4.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/20/26
AGRO scores as moderate: the primary driver is a recovering income statement, but the overall financial picture is restrained by increased leverage and comparatively thin free cash flow. The earnings call adds support via stronger full-year guidance and record EBITDA momentum (especially in fertilizers), while valuation is the biggest headwind due to a very high P/E. Technical indicators are neutral-to-slightly positive and do not materially change the outlook.
Positive Factors
Record EBITDA and fertilizer growth
Record EBITDA and strong fertilizer production indicate that Adecoagro’s diversified platform is generating materially higher operating earnings. The fertilizer business broadens the earnings base beyond crops and sugar, potentially supporting reinvestment and debt reduction over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage relative to current earnings
Higher debt increases sensitivity to commodity downturns, interest costs, and operating volatility across Adecoagro’s agricultural businesses. Although management expects deleveraging, the current capital structure leaves less flexibility to absorb weaker earnings or fund additional expansion without increasing financial strain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record EBITDA and fertilizer growth
Record EBITDA and strong fertilizer production indicate that Adecoagro’s diversified platform is generating materially higher operating earnings. The fertilizer business broadens the earnings base beyond crops and sugar, potentially supporting reinvestment and debt reduction over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.48B
Dividend Yield2.89%
Average Volume (3M)691.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)158.6
Beta (1Y)-0.55
Revenue Growth7.20%
EPS Growth-10.41%
CountryUS
Employees10,283
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding144,307,970
10 Day Avg. Volume595,561
30 Day Avg. Volume691,634
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.44
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.84
P/FCF Ratio196.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.07Price Target Upside18.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.21B
Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through two segments, Farming; and Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy. The company is involved in the production of a ran...
How the Company Makes Money
Adecoagro makes money by producing and selling a mix of agricultural commodities and processed products through vertically integrated operations. (1) Sugar, ethanol and energy: The company cultivates sugarcane and processes it in its industrial fa...
Adecoagro SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple operational and financial milestones: record consolidated adjusted EBITDA, a standout fertilizers performance (22% higher urea production, >100% EBITDA growth in the segment), solid crushing growth (+3% YoY), strategic M&A (Profertil closed payment and Carapo acquisition) and improved liquidity (liquidity ratio up to 1.9x). Offsetting these positives were softer sugar/ethanol results driven by lower sugar prices and TRS, depressed ethanol prices leading to inventory builds, FX-driven cost pressure in Brazil, and seasonally elevated net debt. Management expects fertilizer and sugar/ethanol fundamentals to support future EBITDA, believes Carapo is accretive and synergies are sizable, and remains on a deleveraging path.Positive Updates
Record Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached record levels of $258 million year-to-date and $173 million in Q2 2026, reflecting strong earnings generation across the diversified platform.
Negative Updates
Decline in Sugar/Ethanol Financial Performance
Sugar, ethanol & energy adjusted EBITDA declined versus prior year (Q2: $53 million; YTD: $94 million) due to lower sugar prices, lower sugar volumes sold (shift to ethanol), and mark-to-market impacts from lower Consecana prices on biological assets.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached record levels of $258 million year-to-date and $173 million in Q2 2026, reflecting strong earnings generation across the diversified platform.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to stronger-than-expected full‑year results driven largely by fertilizers and reiterated several numerical targets: consolidated adjusted EBITDA hit record $258M year‑to‑date and $173M in Q2; gross sales were $535M in Q2 and $928M YTD; fertilizers saw urea production of 617k tons YTD (up 22% YoY in the quarter, zero downtime vs 31 days last year) toward a 1.3M ton annual production target and benefited from international urea prices that peaked near $800/ton, leading them to expect full‑year fertilizer EBITDA above initial projections; sugar, ethanol & energy crushed 3.5M tons of cane in Q2 (+3% YoY), achieved a 78% ethanol mix YTD, finished the quarter with ~41% of YTD ethanol production in inventory, reported $53M adjusted EBITDA in Q2 ($94M YTD) and said they still expect low‑double‑digit crushing volume growth this year (roughly ~10%); they reiterated a target of ~10% production cash‑cost reduction versus last year; food & agriculture harvested 92% of planted area producing >1.1M tons YTD; pro forma net leverage stood at 3.0x with liquidity improving to 1.9x (from 1.2x) despite a $58M inventory increase; the Carapo mill acquisition is expected to close soon, be accretive and not alter year‑end deleveraging targets; hedges stand at ~70% of 2026 sugar at $0.157/lb and ~16% of 2027 at $0.174/lb; and shareholder returns include a $17.5M dividend paid in May ($0.12/share) with a second $17.5M installment due in November ($35M total).Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.65B | 1.43B | 1.52B | 1.30B | 1.35B | 1.12B |
| Gross Profit | 494.38M | 351.28M | 434.84M | 415.39M | 465.63M | 484.25M |
| EBITDA | 611.33M | 299.00M | 412.92M | 651.61M | 470.89M | 484.64M |
| Net Income | 49.48M | -8.35M | 92.34M | 226.29M | 108.14M | 130.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.25B | 5.25B | 3.11B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 330.51M | 472.98M | 211.24M | 339.78M | 329.22M | 199.77M |
| Total Debt | 2.33B | 1.95B | 1.12B | 1.28B | 1.35B | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.37B | 3.46B | 1.71B | 1.90B | 1.95B | 1.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.74B | 1.66B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.13B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 47.72M | 20.60M | 65.00M | 191.48M | 139.80M | 135.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 284.33M | 284.86M | 328.33M | 434.91M | 370.03M | 348.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.15B | -951.77M | -231.56M | -111.55M | -299.26M | -175.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 971.24M | 834.49M | -274.00M | -208.74M | -23.57M | -303.13M |
Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis
Negative
11.03
Price Trends
10.64
Negative
10.72
Negative
10.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
42.30
Neutral
50.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.76, above the 50-day MA of 10.64, and above the 200-day MA of 10.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGRO.
Adecoagro SA Risk Analysis
Adecoagro SA disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adecoagro SA reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $327.73M | 13.59 | 7.56% | ― | -23.88% | 115.43% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $1.48B | 158.57 | 3.03% | 2.89% | 7.20% | -10.41% | |
55 Neutral | $378.91M | -21.09 | -4.37% | 3.73% | 10.11% | -167.71% | |
54 Neutral | $1.24B | 16.77 | 4.38% | 2.59% | 8.32% | 208.64% | |
50 Neutral | $284.50M | 182.86 | 1.50% | 0.52% | -61.38% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
10.24
2.79
37.51%
ALCO
Alico
38.35
4.76
14.18%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.68
-0.78
-22.54%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.78
0.25
7.02%
DOLE
Dole
13.14
0.64
5.15%
Adecoagro SA Corporate Events
Adecoagro to Redeem US$234.9 Million 6.000% Senior Notes Due 2027 Ahead of Schedule
Sep 28, 2026
On September 28, 2026, Adecoagro announced it has delivered a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 6.000% Senior Notes due 2027, totaling about US$234.9 million in principal, with the redemption scheduled for October 28, 2026. The notes...
Adecoagro Secures BB Fitch Rating with Stable Outlook After Profertil Acquisition
Sep 18, 2026
On September 18, 2026, Adecoagro S.A. announced that Fitch Ratings initiated coverage of the company, assigning BB long-term local and foreign currency issuer default ratings with a Stable Outlook. Fitch’s assessment highlights AdecoagroR...
Adecoagro Completes Caarapó Mill Acquisition, Expands Brazilian Sugar-Ethanol Cluster
Sep 2, 2026
On September 1, 2026, Adecoagro completed the cash acquisition of the Caarapó sugar and ethanol mill from Raízen Group for R$705 million (about US$136 million), assuming ownership and management of the facility. Based on the mill’s...
Adecoagro Posts Record Adjusted EBITDA and Advances Deleveraging in 2Q26
Aug 11, 2026
Adecoagro S.A. reported on August 11, 2026 its financial results for the second quarter and six-month period ended June 30, 2026, highlighting record adjusted EBITDA of $172.5 million in 2Q26 and $258.3 million in 6M26. Despite gross sales remaini...
Adecoagro to Acquire Caarapó Mill, Expanding Sugar & Ethanol Cluster in Brazil
Jul 20, 2026
On July 20, 2026, Adecoagro announced it has signed an agreement with Raízen Group to acquire the Caarapó sugar and ethanol mill in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, including owned sugarcane fields and supply contracts. The deal, valued at an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.