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Adtran
(NASDAQ:ADTN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-17.45% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
ADTN scores near the low-middle range primarily due to weak profitability and above-average balance-sheet risk despite improving margins and currently positive TTM cash generation. Technical indicators also lean negative (below short-term averages with a negative MACD), while valuation is unattractive/unclear due to losses (negative P/E). The latest earnings call improves the outlook with strong YoY growth and expanding non-GAAP margins, but working-capital strain and supply-chain and BEAD-timing uncertainty keep the overall score constrained.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and diversified demand
Sustained top-line recovery across products and regions shows durable demand for ADTRAN’s broadband and optical solutions. Broad-based strength (subscriber, access, optical and strong U.S. growth) reduces reliance on a single customer or market and supports multi-quarter revenue visibility tied to broadband buildouts.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and reduced equity
Higher leverage relative to a smaller equity base constrains financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to revenue or margin shocks. With trailing net losses and negative ROE, elevated debt increases refinancing and interest risks, limiting capacity for large strategic investments or M&A over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and diversified demand
Sustained top-line recovery across products and regions shows durable demand for ADTRAN’s broadband and optical solutions. Broad-based strength (subscriber, access, optical and strong U.S. growth) reduces reliance on a single customer or market and supports multi-quarter revenue visibility tied to broadband buildouts.
Read all positive factors
Adtran Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdtran (ADTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth18.84%
EPS Growth77.12%
CountryUS
Employees3,202
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.45
Shares Outstanding80,998,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,354,456
30 Day Avg. Volume2,594,752
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)4.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside12.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.19B
Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. develops and provides network access solutions. It is a global provider of open, disaggregated networking and communications equipment that enable voice, data, video and internet communications across any network infrastructu...
How the Company Makes Money
ADTRAN makes money primarily by selling networking equipment and software used to deploy and operate broadband and optical networks. Its core revenue streams are product revenues from access and aggregation platforms (used for last-mile broadband ...
Adtran Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational progress: meaningful top-line growth (+15.5% YoY), strong optical and subscriber performance, meaningful margin expansion (non-GAAP operating margin up ~300 bps YoY), and promising product and AI initiatives (LiteWave800, Mosaic One). These positives are tempered by persistent supply-chain pressures (memory and freight), near-term cash/working-capital strain (negative FCF, elevated inventory), regional geopolitical impacts, and uncertainty about the pace of BEAD-driven revenue. On balance, the positive revenue and margin trends and product momentum outweigh the challenges, though risks remain.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, returning to a more normalized seasonal pattern.
Negative Updates
Elevated Supply-Chain Costs (Memory & Freight)
Industry-wide elevated memory pricing and higher freight costs pressured the quarter; freight expense was higher than expected and management expects freight to remain 'messy' in the near term. Memory cost pressures remain a risk and could deteriorate further.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, returning to a more normalized seasonal pattern.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADTRAN guided Q2 FY2026 revenue of $283M–$303M and non‑GAAP operating margin of 5%–9% (noting it did not provide a reconciliation for the quarter’s non‑GAAP margin), assuming a similar freight and memory cost environment as Q1; that outlook follows Q1 results of $286.1M revenue (up 15.5% YoY), non‑GAAP gross margin 43% (up 55 bps YoY), non‑GAAP operating income $19.9M (6.9% margin), non‑GAAP net income $11.0M ($0.14 diluted) and a non‑GAAP tax rate of 25.5%, with operating cash flow $12.7M, free cash flow −$3.3M, cash $88.3M, net working capital $253.9M, inventory $209M (110 days), receivables $215.5M (DSO 68 days) and payables $170.6M (DPO 66 days); management also reiterated expectations that optical revenue and BEAD‑related orders will build through the year.Adtran Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.12B | 1.08B | 922.72M | 1.15B | 1.03B | 563.00M |
| Gross Profit | 432.77M | 414.95M | 324.16M | 331.13M | 327.25M | 218.38M |
| EBITDA | 105.01M | 80.64M | -330.14M | -104.36M | 27.00K | 9.81M |
| Net Income | -35.71M | -45.66M | -459.89M | -267.69M | -2.04M | -8.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.20B | 1.17B | 1.68B | 1.94B | 569.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 122.08M | 130.87M | 76.02M | 87.17M | 108.98M | 56.95M |
| Total Debt | 243.37M | 245.04M | 215.50M | 234.14M | 143.34M | 3.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 678.52M | 685.34M | 621.52M | 628.86M | 639.88M | 211.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 137.53M | 145.83M | 126.95M | 605.26M | 973.95M | 357.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.27M | 98.03M | 38.40M | -79.35M | -61.30M | -2.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 99.26M | 129.77M | 103.57M | -43.02M | -44.23M | 3.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -93.90M | -115.74M | -64.25M | -36.08M | 55.83M | 10.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.47M | -105.00K | -50.01M | 60.09M | 52.94M | -12.96M |
Adtran Technical Analysis
Negative
16.96
Price Trends
15.67
Negative
13.80
Negative
11.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.66
Positive
35.62
Neutral
22.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.70, above the 50-day MA of 15.67, and above the 200-day MA of 11.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADTN.
Adtran Risk Analysis
Adtran disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adtran reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adtran Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $1.14B | 18.80 | 28.54% | 4.38% | 11.12% | 9.16% | |
70 Outperform | $2.72B | 62.20 | 6.72% | ― | 13.48% | 0.69% | |
67 Neutral | $974.29M | 24.76 | 7.33% | ― | 46.26% | 111.78% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $1.53B | -38.03 | -10.31% | ― | -27.47% | -181.91% | |
53 Neutral | $577.06M | -15.36 | -7.97% | ― | 3.66% | -200.01% | |
50 Neutral | $1.03B | -28.39 | -24.02% | ― | 18.84% | 77.12% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADTN
Adtran
12.71
3.05
31.57%
DGII
Digi International
72.15
37.05
105.56%
GILT
Gilat
12.88
5.78
81.41%
HLIT
Harmonic
14.07
3.90
38.35%
ITRN
Ituran Location And Control
57.14
20.72
56.88%
NTGR
Netgear
21.50
-8.39
-28.07%
Adtran Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Adtran adds veteran director to drive AI expansion
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Adtran Holdings’ board voted to expand its membership from six to seven directors and elected technology industry veteran Anne DelSanto as an independent director, effective July 1, 2026. She will also join the board’...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Adtran Shareholders Approve Officer Exculpation and Governance Updates
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders on May 13, 2026, Adtran Holdings’ investors approved an amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation that eliminates monetary liability for certain officers in specific circumstances all...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Reports Strong Q1 2026 Growth and Outlook
Positive
May 5, 2026
Adtran reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, 2026, posting revenue of $286.1 million, a 15.5% year-over-year increase, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 39.5% and 43.0% and operating margins of 2.2% and 6.9%, respectively. ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Adtran Shifts Executive Pay Toward Earnings-Based Performance Metrics
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Adtran amended the employment agreement of President, CEO and Chairman Thomas R. Stanton, eliminating annual performance share unit awards tied solely to relative total shareholder return and revising his long-term PSU structure ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.