Novo Nordisk, Lilly nearing deal on obesity drug pricing, says UBS

Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are nearing a deal with the White House on obesity drug pricing, with initial reports suggesting that the companies will price obesity drugs at $149 per month for the lowest dose in exchange for Medicare coverage, UBS tells investors in a research note. UBS has a “mixed” view, and while any Medicare coverage is a volume upside to forecasts, the $149/month price is likely to be taken negatively and will raise questions as this is a major discount to obesity prices in ex-U.S. markets. The firm, which has a Neutral rating and DKr340 price target on shares of Novo Nordisk, also looks to see whether the IRA Medicare Part-D direct negotiation for semaglutide will be included in this deal, as well as whether Novo has given significant discounts on Wegovy to preserve Ozempic pricing.