JPMorgan downgraded MP Materials to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $16, down from $20, ahead of the Q1 report. The analyst ices lower assumed long-term neodymium pricing given China’s supply resilience and a low likelihood of a market bifurcation within this decade for the downgrade. The firm has trouble looking past China’s “supply spigot,” with the country accounting for 70% of mine and 90% of refined production. It believes MP’s supply and demand risk are now weighted to the downside.
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