Buy/Sell: Wall Street’s top 10 stock calls this week

What has Wall Street been buzzing about this week? Here are the top 5 Buy calls and the top 5 Sell calls made by Wall Street’s best analysts during the week of July 24-28. 
 
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Top 5 Buy Calls:

1. Netflix upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird

Baird upgraded Netflix (NFLX) to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $500, up from $340. The constructive stance is driven by increased confidence in the company’s execution around new initiatives like advertising and paid sharing as well as its “strengthening” financial profile that should further improve investor sentiment over time, Baird tells investors. The firm says near-term expectations “seem better calibrated” following Netflix’s Q2 print. The modest share pullback has provided an attractive entry point into a strengthening long-term investment case, contends Baird. The stock’s’ valuation is “admittedly rich,” but this is warranted given the company’s underlying momentum and unique qualities of the business, it writes.

2. Wells Fargo upgrades Meta Platforms to Overweight, raises target to $389

Wells Fargo upgraded Meta Platforms (META) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $389, up from $313. The firm cites accelerating tailwinds and “de-risked” 2024 guidance for the upgrade following last night’s Q2 results. The company’s “blowout” Q3 revenue guidance appears sustainable, Wells tells investors. The firm adds that upside artificial intelligence “call options” are emerging for Meta.

3. Shopify upgraded to Outperform at MoffettNathanson

MoffettNathanson upgraded Shopify (SHOP) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $76 price target. The firm expects Shopify to gain increasing traction with enterprise customers going forward and says early signs suggest the transition to the enterprise is already underway. While Wall Street was distracted by the pitfalls of Shopify’s fulfillment network, the company deployed a series of product improvements making Shopify Plus a more attractive e-commerce solution to the enterprise, MoffettNathanson tells investors. The firm’s research suggests Shopify is in the early stages of an enterprise inflection.

4. BofA upgrades Boeing to Buy, raises price target to $300

BofA upgraded Boeing (BA) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $300, up from $225. The firm, “along with the broader market,” maintains some reservations around execution, but it “appears as though the worst may be behind” for Boeing. The airline market is in the midst of the post-COVID commercial recovery, while on the defense side both domestic and international demand continues to accelerate, BofA added.

5. Biogen initiated with an Outperform at Scotiabank

Scotiabank initiated coverage of Biogen (BIIB) with an Outperform rating and $327 price target. Biogen’s legacy business of multiple sclerosis drugs has been “declining for several years,” but new product launches this year with Leqembi for Alzheimer’s disease and likely zuranolone for major depressive disorder, or MDD, have “captured investor attention” and the firm recommends adding to existing positions ahead of two major product launches.

Top 5 Sell Calls:

1. American Express downgraded to Underweight at Piper Sandler

Piper Sandler downgraded American Express (AXP) to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $149, down from $172. The firm has become “increasingly concerned ” that American Express will have difficulty hitting its targeted 10% revenue growth and 15% earnings growth with network volume experiencing a sizable slowdown. In addition, Piper’s recent work on the re-start of federal student debt payments indicates the 25-34 years old age cohort will be the most impacted and likely will see slower spending combined higher default rates, the analyst tells investors. Considering these negative comps developing, the firm expects American Express to experience some headwinds on revenue growth and operating margins which will impact 2024 earnings.

2. Equifax downgraded to Underperform at BofA on further risk to earnings

BofA downgraded Equifax (EFX) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $195, down from $255. Despite the fact that Equifax cut its 2023 guidance by 3% at the mid-point with Q2 earnings, the firm sees further risk and thinks there’s still downside as its revised $6.74 2023 EPS estimate is 3% below the revised mid-point. BofA is concerned that Equifax Workforce Solutions’ sales guidance could miss its “seemingly ambitious” growth objectives of 16% and 26% for the second half and Q4, respectively.

3. Twilio downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded Twilio (TWLO) to Underperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $50, down from $55. The shares reflect “too much optimism,” which creates an unfavorable risk/reward, RBC tells investors. The firm cites growing commoditization in SMS, the company’s mis-execution of its Segment asset, and a pause in its activist story for the downgrade.

4. Seagate double downgraded to Sell from Buy at Summit Insights

Summit Insights double downgraded Seagate (STX) to Sell from Buy following the June quarter results. While generative artificial intelligence will be positive for the storage industry in the longer term, the current cloud AI investment hurts cloud storage spending, Summit tells investors. Additionally, the firm is cautious about the transition to HAMR-based hard disk drives. Summit also remains concerned about Seagate losing its economies of scale in its factories’ footprint, which would result in continued gross margin headwinds.

5. Morgan Stanley says Carvana “second chance” now discounted, cuts to Underweight

Morgan Stanley downgraded Carvana (CVNA) to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $35, up from $12. Carvana “achieved its first step toward a self-financing future” by posting positive adjusted EBITDA, higher than expected retail GPUs and lower than expected SG&A expenses, says the firm, which is making “significant adjustments” to its model to reflect the stronger Q2 results and steps to improve the capital structure. However, Morgan Stanley contends that after the stock’s rally that a “second chance for success” is “discounted in the price” and it sees a less favorable risk-reward for Carvana compared to the rest of the analyst’s coverage.