Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is scheduled to announce its results for the third quarter of Fiscal 2025 on Tuesday, October 14. DPZ stock has declined 3.2% year-to-date amid macro challenges and intense competition. Meanwhile, the company is trying to boost its business through innovation, value deals, and the recently launched brand refresh initiative. Wall Street expects Domino’s to report earnings per share (EPS) of $3.98, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline.
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Meanwhile, revenue is expected to rise 5.5% to $1.14 billion. Investors will focus on management’s commentary about the momentum in the U.S. business and progress on international growth. They will also look forward to insights about the brand refresh initiative.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Domino’s Q3 Earnings
Heading into Q3 results, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger reiterated a Buy rating on Domino’s Pizza stock with a price target of $540. Despite a difficult industry backdrop, Geiger believes that Domino’s is well-positioned for sustained U.S. same-store sales momentum into 2026, supported by several initiatives, new store development over the coming years, and a robust multi-year earnings growth trajectory. For Q3, Geiger noted that investor expectations for U.S. same-store sales are mostly in the range of 4.5% to 5%, with an expectation that trends have slowed in the fourth quarter. He also mentioned the debate around whether the 3% U.S. same-store sales target for 2025 will be reiterated or lowered.
The analyst also noted that DPZ stock has been largely range-bound this year due to a lack of obvious catalysts following the Parmesan Stuffed Crust launch, the partnership with DoorDash (DASH), and the $9.99 Best Deal Ever campaign. With DPZ stock trading at about 21x 2026 EPS, Geiger expects continued traffic and sales momentum, potential emerging catalysts in 2026, and market share gains to drive upside in the upcoming quarters.
Meanwhile, Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan lowered his price target for Domino’s stock to $443 from $477, while maintaining a Hold rating. The 4-star analyst noted that investor expectations indicate that DPZ will report domestic same-store sales growth that is at least in line with or perhaps slightly better than the current consensus estimate of 4.2%. He also highlighted concerns about DPZ’s Q4 trends to date, relative to the current consensus estimate of 5.1%. Given the underperformance of DPZ stock, Mullan contends that a lot of negativity is already priced into the stock.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on Domino’s Stock Ahead of Q3 Print
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has assigned an Outperform rating to Domino’s stock with a price target of $497, indicating about 22.3% upside potential. TipRanks’ AI analysis reflects strong earnings call insights and robust financial performance, particularly in cash flow generation. However, high leverage and valuation concerns have weighed on the AI Analyst’s outlook. Moreover, AI analysis highlights that while technical indicators suggest caution, strategic initiatives and market share gains provide a favorable long-term perspective.
Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on Domino’s Q3 Earnings
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 6.9% move in either direction in DPZ stock in reaction to Q3 FY25 results.
Is DPZ a Good Stock to Buy?
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Domino’s Pizza stock based on 11 Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average DPZ stock price target of $508.11 indicates 25% upside potential from current levels.
