Which Battered Vaccine Maker is a Better Buy Right Now?

When U.S. President Joseph Biden declared that the COVID-19 pandemic was over, it was a controversial statement that’s still being debated within and outside of the financial media.

To be fair, Biden’s statement didn’t suggest that the U.S. government would put an end to its battle against the virus. The President’s full statement on the topic was: “The pandemic is over. We still have a problem with COVID. We’re still doing a lotta work on it… But the pandemic is over.”

Nevertheless, traders apparently didn’t catch this nuance as the following day, a number of vaccine-maker stocks dropped immediately. Among the sell-off targets were Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock, which plunged 9.2%; German Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) partner BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), whose shares slid 8.4%; and Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) stock, which shed 9% of its value in a single day.

What panicky investors need to understand is that these companies will still generate revenue from COVID-19 vaccine shots. Over 400 people die from COVID-19 every day, so there’s still a need and a demand for booster shots. Novavax stock isn’t currently recommended, as BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna have much greater market share – and emergency use authorizations (EUAs) from the U.S. government – for their Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted, single-booster-dose bivalent vaccines.

If we’re going to narrow the field down to BioNTech and Moderna, the billion-dollar question is whether to buy one stock or the other. They both have their merits, but one clear winner emerges after we take a deep dive into the data.

BioNTech May Have an Edge over Moderna in the U.S.

The U.S. market for COVID-19 vaccine booster shots is, again, still there irrespective of how press pundits may choose to interpret what the President said. Therefore, it’s crucial for BioNTech and Moderna to generate revenue from U.S.-based vaccine sales. However, BioNTech may have an edge in the U.S.

On August 31, 2022, both of these companies were granted EUAs from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration or FDA. There is a subtle difference in the press releases, though, that prospective investors should pay particular attention to.

Both companies’ vaccines are bivalent, meaning that they target two types of COVID-19 variant strains: the original strain and the Omicron variant. However, Moderna’s press release states that the EUA provided for a “booster dose for adults over 18 years of age who have received either a primary series or an initial booster of any of the authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccines.”

Meanwhile, BioNTech’s announcement specifies an EUA for “individuals ages 12 years and older.” Clearly, the booster shot that’s been approved for BioNTech and Pfizer addresses a wider range of potential vaccine recipients.

Not only that but BioNTech and Moderna are apparently preparing an FDA “application for an Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age” to be submitted in early October. Furthermore, the two companies are “working with the FDA” to eventually apply for an “Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine in children 6 months through 4 years of age.”

Moderna Seems More Active than BioNTech in Pursuing International Sales

Of course, the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic is global, not just national, in scope. Consequently, both companies are pursuing international revenue-generating opportunities; yet, Moderna appears to be more aggressive in this regard.

Don’t misunderstand – BioNTech and its partner, Pfizer, are quite active in expanding their COVID-19 vaccine market share internationally. Notably, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use or CHMP recently recommended BioNTech’s Omicron bivalent-adapted COVID-19 vaccine for people 12 years and older.

On the other hand, Moderna received a similar recommendation from CHMP not long ago. Indeed, when it comes to multi-national market expansion, it seems that Moderna has kept up with BioNTech or even been a few steps ahead.

It’s hard to keep up with Moderna’s numerous press releases indicating progress abroad. First of all, the company received conditional authorization for the use of Moderna’s Omicron-containing bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine, mRNA-1273.214, from the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

Also, the Canadian government plans to purchase an “additional 4.5 million doses” of a bivalent COVID-19 booster shot from Moderna, while also delivering 1.5 million doses of the bivalent vaccine candidate “from 2023 to 2022.”

That’s not even the end of the list, believe it or not. Not long ago, Switzerland’s Swissmedic granted temporary authorization for one of Moderna’s Omicron booster shots. Moreover, Moderna has garnered similar approvals in Australia and even as far away as Japan. Meanwhile, you can scour through BioNTech’s press releases from the past couple of months but you won’t find such an ambitious rate of international – and even intercontinental – expansion.

MRNA, BNTX: Which Stock Do Analysts Prefer?

When looking at both MRNA and BNTX stocks with TipRanks’ Comparison tool, you can see that both stocks have Moderate Buy consensus ratings. Nonetheless, analysts appear to expect more from MRNA stock, with upside potential of 81.5% compared to the 60% upside potential expected from BNTX.

Conclusion: Moderna Stock Might be Better than BioNTech

In the final analysis, it all boils down to one question: Which is more important: progress in the U.S. or multinational market expansion? There’s no right or wrong answer here, as domestic and international market opportunities are both critical. Personally, I prefer to take a more global perspective when considering the scope of the COVID-19 vaccine market. With that in mind, I’m really impressed with Moderna’s relentless drive to gain a first-mover advantage in multiple world regions.

Therefore, while BioNTech stock is certainly promising, my primary pick for booster-shot sales momentum would be Moderna stock.