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Woolworths Holdings (WLWHY) AI Stock Analysis

WLWHY

Woolworths Holdings

(Other OTC:WLWHY)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:$2.50â–²(5.98% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/02/26

The overall score reflects a balance between a highly attractive valuation and robust debt reduction against ongoing margin compression and strong bearish price momentum. While the 4.5% dividend yield and deleveraged balance sheet are major strengths, the persistent downtrend in both technicals and net profitability severely limits the near-term upside.

Positive Factors
Stable Revenue GrowthRevenue has remained broadly stable to growing, with FY2026 increasing about 4% after modest gains in the prior two years. This supports a durable demand base across the group, giving Woolworths a platform to protect scale and pursue further growth through its established retail operations.
Negative Factors
Margin CompressionNet margin fell to about 2.8% in FY2026 from 7.0% in FY2023, while EBITDA margin declined to 10.2% from 14–16% earlier. Persistent margin compression reduces earnings resilience and leaves less profit available to reinvest, absorb cost pressure, or support shareholder returns.

Woolworths Holdings (WLWHY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%WLWHY-18.20%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$2.19B
Dividend Yield
4.29%
Average Volume (3M)
1,583
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.0
Beta (1Y)
0.74
Revenue Growth
12.05%
EPS Growth
1.78%
Country
US
Employees
37,499
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Department Stores

Woolworths Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Woolworths Holdings Limited is a prominent retail group with extensive operations, through its subsidiaries, across sub-Saharan Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. Its business is structured into seven primary divisions: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty an...

Woolworths Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-21.45%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a constructive recovery narrative: sales growth, market-share gains across all divisions, strong cash generation, improved operational metrics (availability, inventory reduction, CRG turnaround) and continued investment in digital and customer-facing initiatives. However, margin pressure from recent capital investment (Midrand DC), deliberate price investments and inventory clearances, plus material foreign exchange headwinds and elevated depreciation, have constrained near-term EBIT and EPS growth in rand terms. On balance the company has moved decisively beyond its trough, showing multiple positive proof points and a clear pathway for improved full-year performance despite identifiable short-term challenges.

Positive Updates

Group Sales and Top-Line Momentum
Group turnover of ZAR 42.5 billion, up ~6% in constant currency; Woolworths South Africa sales +6.8%. Each business grew sales ahead of its competitor set and gained market share.

Negative Updates

Gross Margin Pressure Across the Group
GP margin headwinds in multiple businesses driven by depreciation from the new Midrand DC (ZAR ~1.7bn investment now being depreciated), higher online mix diluting Food GP, deliberate price investments (e.g., FBH kids/baby) and clearance activity; overall aEBIT growth was modest (~4% cc) despite ~6% sales growth.

Company Guidance

Guidance from the call was that the group is moving into a cleaner, lower‑CapEx phase with continued improvement in cash generation and margins: H1 group turnover was ZAR 42.5bn (+~6% cc) with adjusted EBITDA ZAR 4.6bn (+4.2% cc) and adjusted EBIT ZAR 2.9bn (+4.1% cc), adHEPS ZAR 1.70 (+3.8% cc; +0.7% in rands) and an interim dividend of ZAR 1.18/share (70% payout); net borrowings were ZAR 5.8bn (net debt/EBITDA 1.48x incl. leases), cash conversion 110% and free cash flow >ZAR 2bn (FCF/share ZAR 2.31, >3x prior year), with ZAR 300m working capital released and group inventory down 1.4% (FBH inventories 7% down vs Jun, CRG inventory 15% lower YoY); H2 guidance: CapEx H2 ≈ ZAR 1.2bn (H1 ZAR 1.4bn), Food price movement ~3–4% (excl. meat), FBH price movement ~3–3.5%, expectation of normalising apparel inventory and improving GP margins in H2 (CRG EBIT was AUD 14.8m in H1, +4.2% AUD but –0.6% ZAR; AUD 220m proceeds from Bourke St sale realized with ~AUD100m remaining to repatriate), and management expects continued aEBIT/aEBITDA growth, sustained ROCE (group 16.6%; WSA 25.7%; Food 41%; FBH 13.5%) and that CRG should be at least break‑even at EBIT level in H2.

Woolworths Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Woolworths Holdings presents a mixed financial profile. The company maintains steady revenue growth and a significantly deleveraged balance sheet, supported by a robust recovery in operating cash flows in 2026. However, it faces notable profitability pressures, evidenced by contracting gross and net profit margins leading to declining net income.

Income Statement

45Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

65Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue82.27B82.84B79.54B76.53B72.27B80.07B
Gross Profit27.99B28.20B27.28B27.47B26.83B29.19B
EBITDA4.59B8.47B8.26B8.61B10.49B10.34B
Net Income2.28B2.32B2.44B2.59B5.07B3.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets39.12B39.43B40.85B38.70B39.23B56.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.07B3.15B4.33B2.31B3.58B5.37B
Total Debt18.47B18.62B19.67B18.12B17.05B31.88B
Total Liabilities28.90B29.13B30.14B27.78B27.21B44.28B
Stockholders Equity10.15B10.24B10.64B10.86B11.99B11.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.59B2.71B-291.00M2.82B2.66B4.84B
Operating Cash Flow7.23B5.29B2.84B6.17B5.14B6.70B
Investing Cash Flow-2.68B-2.63B-570.00M-3.93B-2.46B-1.85B
Financing Cash Flow-5.38B-3.46B336.00M-4.40B-5.16B-5.10B

Woolworths Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price2.36

Price Trends

50DMA2.39Negative
100DMA2.65Negative
200DMA2.90Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.01Negative
RSI48.59Neutral
STOCH20.17Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WLWHY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.36, below the 50-day MA of 2.39, and below the 200-day MA of 2.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WLWHY.

Woolworths Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

WLWHY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
DDSDDS76Outperform$10.02B14.7134.24%4.87%0.21%20.42%
MM76Outperform$6.30B8.6415.81%3.14%0.34%58.61%
CPRICPRI68Neutral$2.12B10.46214.43%―-13.93%―
KSSKSS66Neutral$2.76B10.086.68%2.06%-2.87%28.86%
PVHPVH62Neutral$4.16B-25.32-3.49%0.17%1.64%-140.84%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
WLWHYWLWHY61Neutral$2.11B14.9822.59%4.29%12.05%1.78%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%WLWHYDDSKSSMCPRIPVHDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
WLWHY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
WLWHYWoolworths Holdings (OTC)2.36-0.56-19.21%
DDSDillard's641.2465.0711.29%
KSSKohl's Corporation24.318.3952.72%
MMacy's24.114.8525.21%
CPRICapri Holdings18.68-2.04-9.85%
PVHPVH Corp90.1913.6617.85%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2026