Whitecap Resources (WCPRF) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive, with record-level operational execution, production above forecast, 32% year-over-year per-share funds-flow growth, substantial debt reduction, a dividend increase and 2027 production and free-funds-flow growth expectations. The company also highlighted improved asset productivity, capacity expansion and significant capital-allocation flexibility. The principal challenges were the planned Kaybob turnaround, higher 2027 operating and capital costs, increased royalties and transportation expenses, a noncash commodity-contract loss, and lower normalized Conventional production. Overall, the positive operational, financial and balance-sheet developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.

For 2026, Whitecap increased its capital budget by approximately $100 million to $2.2 billion, raised average production guidance to 392,000 BOE per day and expects fourth quarter production of 395,000 to 400,000 BOE per day, an increase of approximately 19,500 BOE per day or 5% from its original budget guidance; for 2027, the $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion capital program includes 332 total wells, comprised of 127 Unconventional Montney and Duvernay wells and 205 Conventional wells, and is expected to deliver average production of 400,000 to 410,000 BOE per day, approximately 3% annual growth or approximately 5% excluding the planned major turnarounds at Kaybob in the third quarter of 2027, including 140,000 BOE per day from Conventional and 265,000 BOE per day from Unconventional, which is forecasted to grow by 8%, with condensate production growing from a base of 60,000 to over 70,000 BOE per day; at strip prices, the forecast generates $4.6 billion of funds flow and $2.1 billion of free funds flow, increasing by approximately $400 million to $2.5 billion if the Productivity Mega Deduction is enacted as proposed, leaving $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion of unallocated free funds flow beyond the $900 million base dividend; at the price deck of $80 WTI, $2.00 per GJ AECO and a CAD 0.71 U.S. exchange rate, Whitecap forecasts funds flow of approximately $4.1 billion or $3.34 per share and approximately $1.6 billion of free funds flow after capital investments of $2.5 billion at the midpoint, with a current tax rate of 10% to 12% on pretax funds flow, increasing 2027 free funds flow to approximately $2.0 billion if the Productivity Mega Deduction is enacted as proposed and closer to $2.5 billion at current strip pricing; 2027 operating costs are forecast in the $12 to $12.50 per BOE range and transportation costs in the range of $3.50 to $3.75 per BOE, the Kaybob turnaround is expected to impact third quarter production by approximately 32,000 BOE per day and annual average production by approximately 8,000 BOE per day, Lator’s 2-rig program is expected to spud 22 wells and bring on 17 wells, with ramp-up to 35,000 to 40,000 BOE per day expected to take 12 to 18 months, and Whitecap expects to exit 2026 with net debt of less than $2.0 billion.