Western Alliance (WAL) Risk Analysis

Our management regularly reviews and updates internal controls over financial reporting, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies and procedures. Any system of controls and procedures, however well designed and operated, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the system are met. Any failure or circumvention of controls and procedures, or failure to comply with regulations related to controls and procedures, could result in materially inaccurate reported financial statements and/or have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition. Similarly, our management makes certain estimates and judgments in preparing financial statements. The quality and accuracy of those estimates and judgments will impact operating results and financial condition.

Credit losses are an inherent risk in the business of making loans. Management makes various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio and maintains an ACL deemed to cover expected losses over the life of the loan portfolio. The measurement of expected credit losses takes place at the time the financial asset is first added to the balance sheet (with periodic updates thereafter) and is based on a number of factors, including the size of the portfolio, asset classifications, economic trends, industry experience and trends, industry and geographic concentrations, estimated collateral values, management's assessment of the credit risk inherent in the portfolio, loan underwriting policies, historical loan loss experience, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. In addition, with the exception of residential loans, we individually evaluate all loans identified as problem loans with a total commitment of $1.0 million or more, and establish an allowance based upon our estimation of the potential loss associated with those problem loans. Additions to the ACL recorded through our provision for credit losses decrease our net income. If management's assumptions and judgments are incorrect or if economic conditions worsen compared to forecast, our actual credit losses may exceed our ACL. At December 31, 2022, our ACL on funded loans and loss contingency on unfunded loan commitments and letters of credit totals $309.7 million and $47.0 million, respectively. Deterioration in the real estate market or general economic conditions could affect the ability of our loan customers to service their debt, which could result in additional loan loss provisions and increases in our ACL. In addition, we may be required to record additional loan provisions or increase our ACL based on new information regarding existing loans, input from regulators in connection with their review of our loan portfolio, changes in regulatory guidance, regulations or accounting standards, identification of additional problem loans, changes in economic outlook, and other factors, both within and outside of our management's control. Moreover, because future events are uncertain and because we may not successfully identify all deteriorating loans in a timely manner, there may be loans that deteriorate in an accelerated time frame. Any increases in the provision or ACL would decrease our net income and capital, and may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. If actual credit losses materially exceed our ACL, we may be required to raise additional capital, which may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all. Our inability to raise additional capital on acceptable terms when needed could materially and adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations, and capital.

Most of our assets and liabilities reprice with changes in interest rates, which subjects us to significant risks from changes in interest rates and can impact our net interest income, mortgage banking revenues, the valuation of our assets and liabilities, and our ability to effectively manage our interest rate risk. We derive a significant amount of our revenue from net interest income and, therefore, our net income depends heavily on our net interest margin. Net interest margin is the difference between the interest we receive on loans, securities, and other earning assets and the interest we pay on interest-bearing deposits, borrowings, and other liabilities. These rates are highly sensitive to many factors beyond our control, including competition, general economic conditions, the slope of the interest rate curve, and monetary and fiscal policies of various governmental and regulatory authorities, including the FRB. In a rising rate environment, the rate of interest we pay on our interest-bearing deposits, borrowings, and other liabilities may increase more quickly than the rate of interest we receive on loans, securities, and other earning assets, which could adversely impact our net interest income and earnings. Interest rates rose during 2022 and may continue to rise during 2023. As a result, we have experienced certain of the rising rate environment effects described herein. If interest rates continue to increase, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected. Conversely, our earnings also could be adversely affected in a declining rate environment if the rates on our loans and other investments fall more quickly than those on our deposits and other liabilities. Because of our relatively high reliance on net interest income, our revenue and earnings are more sensitive to changes in market rates than other financial institutions that have more diversified sources of revenue. Loan volumes are also affected by market interest rates on loans. Lower interest rates are usually associated with higher loan originations, but also result in higher loan refinancings which can result in lower average loan yields and the loss of future net servicing revenues on residential loans with an associated write-down of MSRs. In contrast, in rising interest rate environments, loan repayment rates generally decline and result in a lower volume of loan originations. In addition to the impact on our lending business, a decrease in loan originations would adversely affect the volume of loans available for purchase by our mortgage warehouse lending platform. In addition to the potential effects on net interest margin and loan volumes, an increase in the general level of interest rates affected the ability of certain borrowers to pay interest and principal on their obligations and reduced the amount of non-interest income we can earn due to potentially lower levels of banking business conducted generally as well lower levels of servicing, gain on sale, and other revenues generated through our residential mortgage business.

Actual events involving limited liquidity, defaults, non-performance or other adverse developments that affect financial institutions, transactional counterparties or other companies in the financial services industry or the financial services industry generally, or concerns or rumors about any events of these kinds or other similar events, have in the past and may in the future lead to erosion of customer confidence in the banking system or certain banks, deposit volatility, liquidity issues, stock price volatility and other adverse developments. The closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023 led to such disruption and volatility, including deposit outflows, at many mid-sized banks, increasing the need for liquidity. Although a statement by the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC indicated that all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank would have access to all of their money after only one business day of closure, including funds held in uninsured deposit accounts, it is not certain that the Federal Reserve or FDIC will treat future bank failures similarly. On May 1, 2023, First Republic Bank was also closed by its primary state regulator, which appointed the FDIC as receiver, and the FDIC announced that JP Morgan Chase Bank, National Association agreed to assume all of First Republic Bank's deposits and substantially all of its assets. Shortly following the closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, we and certain other banks experienced a brief period of elevated deposit withdrawals. While we cannot know for certain with respect to all withdrawals, we believe the elevated withdrawals were at least in part due to certain perceived similarities between our loan portfolio and deposit gathering activities and those of these banks. Our deposit balances stabilized as of March 20, 2023 and from such date through September 30, 2023 deposits increased, and were up $643 million from December 31, 2022. During this time, we took additional measures to ensure liquidity, strengthen our capital position and increase customer confidence, which included increasing our borrowing capacity with the FRB, selling certain assets and strengthening our insured and collateralized deposit ratio from 47% as of December 31, 2022 to 82% as of September 30, 2023. We have also participated in the BTFP, with $1.3 billion of funds drawn as of September 30, 2023. Although our deposits have stabilized and increased since we experienced the period of elevated withdrawals, we cannot be assured that similar unusual deposit withdrawal activity will not affect banks generally or us in the future. Our net interest margin also may be negatively impacted if the Company's borrowings remain elevated in future periods. Inflation and rapid increases in interest rates have led to a decline in the trading value of previously issued government securities with interest rates below current market interest rates. Any sale of investment securities that are held in an unrealized loss position by financial institutions for liquidity or other purposes will cause actual losses to be realized. Gross unrealized losses on our HTM and AFS investment securities totaled $261 million and $987 million, respectively, as of September 30, 2023. There can be no assurance that there will not be additional bank failures or liquidity concerns in particular segments of the financial services industry or in the U.S. financial system as a whole. The volatility and economic disruption resulting from the bank closures in 2023 have particularly impacted the price of capital stock and other securities issued by financial institutions, including us. Continued uncertainty regarding or worsening of the severity and duration of the volatility in the banking industry and related economic effects may also adversely impact the Company's estimate of its allowance for credit losses and resulting provision for credit losses. Any of these impacts, or any other impacts resulting from the events described above or other related or similar events, could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity and our current and/or projected business operations and financial condition and results of operations.

We may from time to time issue debt securities, borrow money through other means, or issue preferred stock. We may also borrow money from the FRB, the FHLB, other financial institutions, and other lenders. At December 31, 2022, we had outstanding subordinated debt, senior secured and unsecured debt, and short-term borrowings. In addition, AmeriHome has outstanding senior notes that were issued prior to the acquisition. We also have outstanding depositary shares representing Series A preferred stock, which is senior to our common stock. All of these securities or borrowings have priority over our common stock in a liquidation, which could affect the market price of our stock. Our BOD is authorized to issue one or more classes or series of preferred stock from time to time without any action on the part of the stockholders. Our BOD also has the power, without stockholder approval, to set the terms of any such classes or series of preferred stock that may be issued, including voting rights, dividend rights, and preferences over our common stock with respect to dividends or upon our dissolution, winding-up, and liquidation and other terms. If we issue additional preferred stock in the future that has a preference over our common stock, with respect to the payment of dividends or upon our liquidation, dissolution, or winding up, or if we issue preferred stock with voting rights that dilute the voting power of our common stock and/or the rights of holders of our common stock, the market price of our common stock could be adversely affected.

Market participants regularly evaluate our creditworthiness and the creditworthiness of our long-term debt based on a number of factors, some of which are not entirely within our control, including our financial strength and conditions within the financial services industry generally. There can be no assurance that our perceived creditworthiness will remain the same. Changes could adversely affect the cost and other terms upon which we are able to obtain funding and our access to the capital markets, and could increase our cost of capital. Likewise, any loss of or decline in the credit rating assigned to us could impair our ability to attract deposits or to obtain other funding sources, or increase our cost of funding.

As of December 31, 2022, we have $4.3 billion of borrowings from the FHLB of San Francisco and no borrowings from the FRB. We utilize borrowings from the FHLB of San Francisco and the FRB to satisfy short-term liquidity needs. Our borrowing capacity is generally dependent on the value of our collateral pledged to these entities. These lenders could reduce our borrowing capacity or eliminate certain types of collateral and could otherwise modify or terminate their loan programs. Any change to or termination of these programs could have an adverse effect on our liquidity and profitability.

A substantial portion of our mortgage banking operations involves the sale of loans to third parties, including through securitization. When loans are sold or securitized, we make customary representations and warranties about such loans to the loan purchaser or through documents governing our securitized loan pools. If a mortgage loan does not comply with the representations and warranties made with respect to it at the time of its sale, we could be required to repurchase the loan, replace it with a substitute loan and/or indemnify secondary market purchasers or investors for losses, and may not have recourse to the correspondent seller that sold the mortgage loans and breached similar or other representations and warranties. Significant indemnification or repurchase activity on securitized or sold loans without offsetting recourse to a counterparty from which the loan was purchased could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Our success depends on our ability to maintain sufficient liquidity to fund our current obligations and support loan growth and, specifically, to attract and retain a stable base of relatively low-cost deposits. The competition for these deposits in our markets is strong and customers may demand higher interest rates on their deposits or seek other investments offering higher rates of return. Additionally, we may accept brokered deposits, which may be more price sensitive than other types of deposits and may become less available if alternative investments offer higher returns. We offer reciprocal deposit products through third party networks to customers seeking federal insurance for deposit amounts that exceed the applicable deposit insurance limit at a single institution. We also from time to time offer other credit enhancements to depositors, such as FHLB letters of credit and, for certain deposits of public monies, pledges of collateral in the form of readily marketable securities. Any event or circumstance that interferes with or limits our ability to offer these products to customers that require greater security for their deposits, such as a significant regulatory enforcement action or a significant decline in capital levels at our bank subsidiary, could negatively impact our ability to attract and retain deposits. If we were to lose a significant deposit relationship or a significant portion of our low-cost deposits, we would be required to borrow from other sources at higher rates and our liquidity and profitability would be adversely impacted.

We have entered into transactions to mitigate exposure to losses on our loan portfolio. These transactions are structured as credit linked notes, which transfer the risk of first losses on covered loans to these note holders. These notes have an aggregate principal amount of $1.0 billion on a $12.0 billion reference pool of warehouse and equity fund resource loans and residential mortgages. Pursuant to these arrangements, in the event of borrower default, the principal balance of the notes will be reduced by the amount of the loss, up to the amount of the aggregate principal of the notes. However, all residual risk over and above the first loss position is retained by us. While current estimates of future credit losses are below the first loss position, no assurances can be given that these losses will not exceed the first loss position and, if credit losses were to exceed the first loss position, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely effected. We may enter into more such transactions in the future.