Voya Financial (VOYA) Risk Analysis

A downgrade or a potential downgrade in our financial strength or credit ratings may result in a loss of business and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We and our subsidiaries are currently subject to periodic review by independent credit rating agencies such as S&P, Moody's, Fitch and A.M. Best, each of which currently maintain an investment grade rating with respect to us or our subsidiaries as further detailed in Liquidity and Capital Resources-Ratings in Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in Part II, Item 7. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Our ability to obtain secured or unsecured debt financing and the cost of such financing depend, in part, on our credit ratings. A credit rating downgrade could negatively impact our ability to obtain such financing and increase borrowing costs. In turn, maintaining our credit ratings depends on strong financial results and on other factors, including the outlook of the rating agencies on our sector and the market generally. Financial strength ratings, which various rating organizations publish as a measure of an insurance company's ability to meet contract holder and policyholder obligations, are important to maintain public confidence in our products, the ability to market our products and our competitive position. A downgrade in our financial strength ratings, or the announced potential for a downgrade, could have a significant adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations in many ways, including by: (i) reducing new sales of insurance and annuity products and investment products; (ii) adversely affecting our relationships with our advisors and third-party distributors of our products; (iii) materially increasing the number or amount of policy surrenders and withdrawals by contract holders and policyholders; (iv) requiring us to reduce prices for many of our products and services to remain competitive; and (v) adversely affecting our ability to obtain reinsurance or obtain reasonable pricing on reinsurance. In addition, rating agencies may implement changes to their capital models that may favorably or unfavorably affect our ratings. We cannot assure you that these ratings will remain in effect for any given period of time or that a rating will not be lowered, suspended or withdrawn. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or other financial product, and each agency's rating should be evaluated independently of any other agency's rating. The inability of counterparties to meet their financial obligations could have an adverse effect on our results of operations. Third parties that owe us money, securities or other assets may not pay or perform under their obligations. These parties include the issuers or guarantors of securities we hold, customers, reinsurers, trading counterparties, securities lending and repurchase counterparties, counterparties under swaps, credit default and other derivative contracts, clearing agents, exchanges, clearing houses and other financial intermediaries. Defaults by one or more of these parties on their obligations to us due to bankruptcy,lack of liquidity, downturns in the economy or real estate values, operational failure or other factors, or even rumors about potential defaults by one or more of these parties, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. Actual or anticipated changes or downgrades in counterparty credit ratings, including any announcement that such ratings are under review for a downgrade, could increase our corporate borrowing costs and limit our access to the capital markets, which could adversely impact our financial results. We routinely execute a high volume of transactions such as unsecured debt instruments, derivative transactions and equity investments with counterparties and customers in the financial services industry, resulting in large periodic settlement amounts which may result in our having significant credit exposure to one or more of such counterparties or customers. Many of these transactions comprise derivative instruments with a number of counterparties in order to hedge various risks, including equity and interest rate market risk features within many of our insurance and annuity products. Our obligations under our products are not changed by our hedging activities and we are liable for our obligations even if our derivative counterparties do not pay us. As a result, we face concentration risk with respect to liabilities or amounts we expect to collect from specific counterparties and customers. A default by, or even concerns about the creditworthiness of, one or more of these counterparties or customers could have an adverse effect on our results of operations or liquidity. There is no assurance that losses on, or impairments to the carrying value of, these assets due to counterparty credit risk would not materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition. We are also subject to the risk that our rights against third parties may not be enforceable in all circumstances. The deterioration or perceived deterioration in the credit quality of third parties whose securities or obligations we hold could result in losses and/or adversely affect our ability to rehypothecate or otherwise use those securities or obligations for liquidity purposes. While in many cases we are permitted to require additional collateral from counterparties that experience financial difficulty, disputes may arise as to the amount of collateral we are entitled to receive and the value of pledged assets. Our credit risk may also be exacerbated when the collateral we hold cannot be realized or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivative exposure that is due to us, which is most likely to occur during periods of illiquidity and depressed asset valuations. The termination of contracts and the foreclosure on collateral may subject us to claims for the improper exercise of rights under the contracts. Bankruptcies, downgrades and disputes with counterparties as to the valuation of collateral tend to increase in times of market stress and illiquidity. Requirements to post collateral or make payments related to changes in market value of specified assets may adversely affect our liquidity. The amount of collateral we may be required to post under short-term financing agreements and derivative transactions may increase under certain circumstances. Pursuant to the terms of some transactions, we could be required to make payment to our counterparties related to any change in the market value of the specified collateral assets. Such requirements could have an adverse effect on our liquidity. Furthermore, with respect to any such payments or collateral, we may have unsecured risk to the counterparty as these amounts may not be required to be segregated from the counterparty's other funds, may not be held in a third-party custodial account and may not be required to be returned to us by the counterparty until the termination of the transaction. Our participation in securities lending and repurchase programs subjects us to potential liquidity and other risks. The repurchase of securities or our inability to enter into new repurchase agreements would reduce the amount of cash collateral available to us. Market conditions on or after the repurchase date may limit our ability to enter into new agreements at a time when we need access to additional cash collateral for investment or liquidity purposes. For both securities lending and repurchase transactions, in some cases, the maturity of the securities held as invested collateral (i.e., securities that we have purchased with cash collateral received) may exceed the term of the related securities on loan and the estimated fair value may fall below the amount of cash received as collateral and invested. If we are required to return significant amounts of cash collateral on short notice and we are forced to sell securities to meet the return obligation, we may have difficulty selling such collateral that is invested in securities in a timely manner, be forced to sell securities in a volatile or illiquid market for less than we otherwise would have been able to realize under normal market conditions, or both. In addition, under adverse capital market and economic conditions, liquidity may broadly deteriorate, which would further restrict our ability to sell securities. See the Business, Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies Note in our Consolidated Financial Statements in in Part II, Item 8. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information on the repurchase agreements and securities lending programs. A portion of our institutional funding originates from sources such as our Federal Home Loan Bank system and our Funding Agreement Backed Note program, which subjects us to liquidity risks. A portion of our institutional funding originates from the Federal Home Loan Bank ("FHLB") of Boston and the FHLB of Des Moines, as well as our Funding Agreement Backed Note ("FABN") program. We have issued funding agreements in exchange for eligible collateral primarily in the form of cash, mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasury securities. These funding agreements are for a fixed term and cannot be terminated early. Should the programs choose to change their definition of eligible collateral, change the lendable value against such collateral or if the market value of the pledged collateral decreases in value due to changes in interest rates or credit ratings, we may be required to post additional collateral in the form of cash or other eligible collateral. Additionally, if we lose access to such funding, we may be required to find other sources to replace it, which could increase our funding costs. This could occur if our creditworthiness falls below either of the FHLB's or FABN program's requirements or if legislative or other political actions cause changes to the FHLBs' mandate or to the eligibility of life insurance companies to be members of the FHLB system or to participate in a FABN program. As holding companies, Voya Financial, Inc. and Voya Holdings depend on the ability of their subsidiaries to transfer funds to them to meet their obligations. Voya Financial, Inc. is the holding company for all our operations, and dividends, returns of capital and interest income on intercompany indebtedness from Voya Financial, Inc.'s subsidiaries are the principal sources of funds available to Voya Financial, Inc. to pay principal and interest on our outstanding indebtedness, corporate operating expenses and any stockholder dividends, to repurchase any stock, and to meet our other obligations. The subsidiaries of Voya Financial, Inc. are legally distinct from Voya Financial, Inc. and, except in the case of Voya Holdings, which is the guarantor of certain of our outstanding indebtedness, have no obligation to pay amounts due on the debt of Voya Financial, Inc. or to make funds available to Voya Financial, Inc. for such payments. The ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends or make other distributions to Voya Financial, Inc. in the future will depend on their earnings, tax considerations, covenants contained in their financing or other agreements and applicable regulatory restrictions. In addition, such payments may be limited as a result of claims against our subsidiaries by their creditors, including suppliers, vendors, lessors and employees. The ability of our insurance subsidiaries to pay dividends and make other distributions to Voya Financial, Inc. is regulated by state insurance laws and regulations, and will depend on their ability to meet applicable regulatory standards and receive regulatory approvals. For additional information on the regulations governing our subsidiaries and restrictions imposed on their ability to pay dividends, see -Regulation-Insurance Regulation in Part I, Item 1. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Voya Holdings is wholly owned by Voya Financial, Inc. and is also a holding company, and accordingly its ability to make payments under its guarantees of our indebtedness or on the debt for which it is the primary obligor is subject to restrictions and limitations similar to those applicable to Voya Financial, Inc. Voya Financial, Inc. and Voya Holdings do not have significant sources of cash flows other than from our subsidiaries that do not guarantee such indebtedness. If the ability of our insurance or non-insurance subsidiaries to pay dividends or make other distributions or payments to Voya Financial, Inc. and Voya Holdings is materially restricted by regulatory requirements, other cash needs, bankruptcy or insolvency, or by our need to maintain the financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries, or is limited due to results of operations or other factors, we may be required to raise cash through the incurrence of debt, the issuance of equity or the sale of assets. However, there is no assurance that we would be able to raise cash by these means. This could materially and adversely affect the ability of Voya Financial, Inc. and Voya Holdings to pay their obligations. For a summary of ordinary dividends and extraordinary distributions paid by each of our Principal Insurance Subsidiaries to Voya Financial or Voya Holdings in 2024 and 2025, and a discussion of ordinary dividend capacity for 2026, see Liquidity and Capital Resources-Restrictions on Dividends and Returns of Capital from Subsidiaries in Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in Part II, Item 7. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K and the Insurance Subsidiaries Note in our Consolidated Financial Statements in Part II, Item 8. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Our investment portfolio is subject to several risks that may diminish the value of our invested assets and the investment returns credited to customers or investors, which could reduce our sales, revenues and results of operations. Fixed income securities represent a significant portion of our investment portfolio. We are subject to the risk that the issuers, or guarantors, of fixed income securities we own may default on principal and interest payments they owe us. We are also subject to the risk that the underlying collateral within asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may default on principal and interest payments causing an adverse change in cash flows. The occurrence of a major economic downturn, acts of corporate malfeasance, widening mortgage or credit spreads, or other events that adversely affect the issuers, guarantors or underlying collateral of these securities could cause the estimated fair value of our fixed income securities portfolio and our earnings to decline and the default rate of the fixed income securities in our investment portfolio to increase. A ratings downgrade affecting issuers or guarantors of securities in our investment portfolio, or similar trends that could worsen the credit quality of such issuers or guarantors could also have a similar effect. Similarly, a ratings downgrade affecting a security we hold could indicate that the credit quality of that security has deteriorated and could increase the capital we must hold to support that security to maintain our RBC ratio. See risk factor A decrease in the RBC ratio (as a result of a reduction in statutory surplus or increase in RBC requirements) of our insurance subsidiaries could result in increased scrutiny by insurance regulators and rating agencies and have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We are also subject to the risk that cash flows resulting from the payments on pools of mortgages or other obligations that serve as collateral underlying the mortgage- or asset-backed securities we own may differ from our expectations in timing or size. Cash flow variability arising from an unexpected acceleration in mortgage prepayment behavior can be significant, and could cause a decline in the estimated fair value of certain "interest-only" securities within our mortgage-backed securities portfolio. Any event reducing the estimated fair value of these securities, other than on a temporary basis, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In particular, we manage a portfolio of various collateralized mortgage obligation ("CMO") tranches in combination with financial derivatives as part of a proprietary strategy we refer to as "CMO-B," as described under Investments (excluding Consolidated Investment Entities)-CMO-B Portfolio in Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in Part II, Item 7. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. The CMO-B portfolio is subject to a number of market and behavior risks, including interest rate risk, prepayment risk, and delinquency and default risk associated with Agency mortgage borrowers. In addition, government policy changes affecting residential housing and residential housing finance, such as government agency reform and government sponsored refinancing programs, and Federal Reserve Bank purchases of agency mortgage securities could alter prepayment behavior and result in adverse changes to portfolio values. While we actively monitor our exposure to these and other risks inherent in this strategy, it is possible that our hedging and risk management strategies will not be effective; any failure to manage these risks effectively could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. In addition, although our CMO-B portfolio has historically performed well, it may not continue to meet expectations in the future. A rise in home prices, the concern over further introduction of or changes to government policies aimed at altering prepayment behavior, and an increased availability of housing-related credit could combine to increase expected or actual prepayment speeds, which would likely lower interest only ("IO") and inverse IO valuations. Under these circumstances, the results of our CMO-B portfolio would likely underperform compared to recent periods. From time to time we invest our capital to seed a particular investment strategy or investment portfolio. We may also co-invest in funds or take an equity ownership interest in certain structured finance/investment vehicles that we manage for our customers and investors. In some cases, these interests may be leveraged with third-party debt financing. Any decrease in the value of such investments could negatively affect our revenues and income or subject us to losses. Poor investment performance may result in reductions to interest rates credited to our products, which in turn could lead to lower sales, an increase in customer withdrawals, and a decrease in AUM which would adversely affect results of operations. Some of our investments are relatively illiquid and in some cases are in asset classes that may experience significant market valuation fluctuations. We hold certain assets that may lack liquidity, such as privately placed fixed income securities, commercial mortgage loans, policy loans, limited partnership interests and other alternative investments. Reported values of our relatively illiquid types of investments do not necessarily reflect the current market prices of the assets. If we require significant amounts of cash on short notice in excess of normal cash requirements or are required to post or return collateral in connection with our investment portfolio, derivatives transactions or securities lending activities, we may have difficulty selling these investments in a timely manner, be forced to sell them for less than we otherwise would have been able to realize, or both. The amount and timing of income from alternative investments tend to be uneven. The timing of distributions from such investments can be difficult to predict and, in the case of investment funds, may depend on particular events relating to underlying investments, as well as the funds' schedules for making distributions and their needs for cash. As a result, the amount of income that we record from these investments can vary substantially from quarter to quarter. Market volatility may reduce investment income for these types of investments. The valuation of many of our financial instruments, and the determination of the amount of allowances and impairments taken on our investments, include methodologies, estimations and assumptions that are subject to differing interpretations or are inherently subjective and could result in changes to investment valuations that may adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. During periods of market disruption, including periods of rapidly changing credit spreads or illiquidity, it may be difficult to value certain of our securities, such as certain mortgage-backed securities, if trading becomes less frequent or market data becomes less observable. There may be certain asset classes that, although currently in active markets with significant observable data, could become illiquid in a difficult financial environment. As such, valuations may include inputs and assumptions that are less observable or require greater estimation, thereby resulting in values that may differ materially from the value at which the investments may be ultimately sold. Further, rapidly changing and unprecedented market conditions could materially impact the valuation of securities as reported within the financial statements, and the period-to-period changes in value could vary significantly. Decreases in value could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. The determination of the amount of allowances and impairments varies by investment type and is based on our quarterly evaluation and assessment of known and inherent risks associated with the respective asset class. Such evaluations and assessments are subjective and require a high degree of judgment, and are revised as conditions change and new information becomes available. There can be no assurance that management has accurately assessed the level of impairments taken and allowances reflected in our financial statements. Furthermore, additional impairments may need to be taken or allowances provided for in the future if investments perform worse than our expectations. Historical trends may not be indicative of future impairments or allowances.