Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.13B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 433.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 52
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 53,909,428
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 348,822
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 433,444
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 72.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 72.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.63
• 1Y Price Target: $61.00
• Price Target Upside: 136.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.00 ▼(-10.75% Downside)

Upstream Bio, Inc. scores moderately due to strong technical momentum, which is offset by financial challenges and a weak valuation. The company's high equity position is a positive, but ongoing operational losses and reliance on external financing are significant risks. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Equity Position

A robust equity position provides financial stability and flexibility, enabling the company to invest in growth opportunities without excessive reliance on debt.

Proprietary Technology Platform

The proprietary technology platform is a competitive advantage, allowing the company to develop unique therapies, potentially leading to successful product development and commercialization.

Strategic Collaborations

Strategic collaborations enhance revenue potential and provide access to additional resources and expertise, supporting long-term growth and product development.

Negative Factors

Operational Losses

Ongoing operational losses indicate inefficiencies and could hinder the company's ability to achieve profitability, affecting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow highlights liquidity issues, necessitating external funding and potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Reliance on External Financing

Dependence on external financing can be risky, especially if market conditions change, potentially impacting the company's financial stability and growth prospects.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases that focuses on severe respiratory disorders. It develops verekitug, a monoclonal antibody that targets and inhibits the thymic stromal lymphopoietin receptor. The company also develops therapies to treat severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Upstream Bio, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstream Bio generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: first, revenue from collaborations and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies that may involve milestone payments and royalties on sales of jointly developed products. Second, the company may receive funding from grants or research programs aimed at supporting innovative therapies. Additionally, once their products receive regulatory approval, Upstream Bio can generate significant income through direct sales of its therapeutics to healthcare providers and hospitals. Strategic collaborations, licensing agreements, and potential acquisitions also contribute to the overall financial health of the company, enhancing its revenue potential.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upstream Bio, Inc.'s financial statements reflect a company in the growth phase, with significant operational and cash flow challenges. While the balance sheet is strong due to high equity, profitability issues and reliance on external financing present risks. Strategic improvements in profitability and cash flow management are essential for future stability.

Income Statement

Upstream Bio, Inc. has experienced minimal revenue growth of 95.45% from 2022 to 2023, but revenue decreased slightly by 0.42% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 100%, reflecting the absence of COGS. However, the company faces significant challenges with negative EBIT and net profit margins, indicating ongoing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The company displays a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0039 and an equity ratio of 97.55% as of 2024. Despite a high level of stockholders' equity, consistent net losses could erode this strength over time if not addressed.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow deteriorated from -$19.1 million in 2022 to -$59.7 million in 2024. The company's operating cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. Positive financing cash flow suggests reliance on external funding to manage operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.72M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
Gross Profit	2.72M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
EBITDA	-121.42M	-77.67M	-40.05M	-23.90M
Net Income	-104.47M	-62.81M	-20.54M	-23.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	420.52M	481.72M	117.20M	18.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	393.58M	470.45M	109.81M	17.05M
Total Debt	1.56M	1.83M	45.00K	94.00K
Total Liabilities	11.78M	11.87M	240.32M	124.63M
Stockholders Equity	408.74M	469.85M	-123.13M	-106.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-114.54M	-59.68M	-38.07M	-19.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-113.98M	-59.17M	-37.93M	-19.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-157.29M	-59.48M	-82.84M	-82.00K
Financing Cash Flow	269.58M	418.91M	129.55M	9.96M

Upstream Bio, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.43, above the 50-day MA of 19.18, and above the 200-day MA of 12.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.80 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPB.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	―	$713.62M	60.58	6.23%	―	24.49%	―
UPB	―	$1.13B	―	―	―	―	―
ZBIO	―	$1.18B	―	-88.40%	―	―	―
Sector *	―	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
BCYC	―	$566.93M	―	-31.58%	―	-51.13%	7.57%
BCAX	―	$898.92M	―	-32.71%	―	―	―
PRME	―	$775.15M	―	-154.81%	―	739.42%	24.90%

Upstream Bio, Inc. Corporate Events

Upstream Bio’s COPD Study: A Potential Game-Changer for Investors

Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) is conducting a Phase 2b study titled A Phase 2b Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-Group Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Verekitug (UPB-101) in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). The study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the drug verekitug in treating moderate-to-severe COPD, a significant inflammatory lung disease affecting millions worldwide.

Upstream Bio’s Verekitug Study: A Potential Game-Changer for Severe Asthma Treatment

Upstream Bio, Inc. is conducting a study titled ‘A Long-Term Extension Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Verekitug (UPB-101) in Adult Participants With Severe Asthma Who Completed the VALIANT Trial.’ The study aims to assess the long-term safety and efficacy of the drug verekitug (UPB-101) in adults with severe asthma, highlighting its significance in potentially improving asthma management.

Upstream Bio Announces Positive Phase 2 Trial Results

On September 2, 2025, Upstream Bio announced positive results from the Phase 2 VIBRANT trial for verekitug in treating chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP). The trial demonstrated significant improvements in nasal polyp and congestion scores, with a favorable safety profile, suggesting potential advancements in CRSwNP treatment. The results may also indicate verekitug’s utility in other respiratory diseases, such as severe asthma, highlighting its potential to transform care in multiple indications.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPB) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstream Bio, Inc. stock, see the UPB Stock Forecast page.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Reports Increased R&D Investments

Upstream Bio, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, particularly severe respiratory disorders, using its proprietary monoclonal antibody, verekitug.