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Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR
(OTC:UNVGY)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(1.43% Upside)
Action:N/A
Date:09/24/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but weakening fundamentals (slowing growth, margin compression, and rising leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is a headwind due to a very high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds some support via strong reported revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation, but near-term cash-flow and margin pressure limit upside in the score.
Positive Factors
Streaming growth
Strong subscription growth supports recurring monetization of UMG’s rights portfolio and indicates continued consumer adoption of paid streaming. Recent DSP agreements may also improve pricing, helping sustain revenue growth and strengthen the value of the company’s catalog over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Free cash flow weakness
The sharp first-half free-cash-flow decline weakens near-term funding capacity despite continued positive cash generation historically. Lower operating cash conversion can constrain investment, shareholder returns, and debt reduction until working-capital and payment timing pressures normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Streaming growth
Strong subscription growth supports recurring monetization of UMG’s rights portfolio and indicates continued consumer adoption of paid streaming. Recent DSP agreements may also improve pricing, helping sustain revenue growth and strengthen the value of the company’s catalog over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR (UNVGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.48B
Dividend Yield3.83%
Average Volume (3M)120.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)80.7
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth12.84%
EPS Growth-86.72%
CountryUS
Employees10,595
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding3,677,054,000
10 Day Avg. Volume225,299
30 Day Avg. Volume120,770
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.93
Price to Book (P/B)8.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.39
P/FCF Ratio26.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) functions as a leading global entity in the music industry, with operations spanning three core divisions: Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other. The Recorded Music sector is responsible for i...
How the Company Makes Money
Universal Music Group primarily makes money by monetizing music rights and artist-related products/services across three main areas:
1) Recorded Music (master recording rights)
- Streaming revenue: The largest driver is typically paid subscriptio...
Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive strategic and top-line story: healthy revenue growth across segments, strong streaming/subscription momentum, meaningful strategic deals (Streaming 2.0 agreements, Downtown acquisition, Chord partnership), active shareholder returns (buybacks and dividend), and clear initiatives in AI, India/China market development and superfan monetization. However, the company is facing near-term profitability and cash-flow headwinds — margin compression, elevated legal and integration costs, higher interest expense, and a marked drop in H1 free cash flow. Management framed many of these issues as temporary, investible, or sequencing-related and emphasized disciplined capital allocation and long-term return targets.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Second-quarter total revenue grew 13.3% year-over-year to €3.3 billion (6.4% growth excluding Downtown). Half-year total revenue grew 10.8% (5.7% excluding Downtown).
Negative Updates
Margin Compression and Modest EBITDA Growth
Q2 adjusted EBITDA grew only 1.5% to €674m and, excluding Downtown, adjusted EBITDA was flat; overall adjusted EBITDA margin (ex-Downtown) declined by 1.3 percentage points to 21.5%, and recorded music EBITDA margin declined 1.8 ppts to 24.9% driven by revenue mix, repertoire mix and last year's one-time settlement benefit.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Second-quarter total revenue grew 13.3% year-over-year to €3.3 billion (6.4% growth excluding Downtown). Half-year total revenue grew 10.8% (5.7% excluding Downtown).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s forward-looking guidance emphasized stronger second‑half cash flow and disciplined capital allocation: Q2 revenue was €3.3bn (+13.3% y/y; +6.4% ex‑Downtown), Q2 adjusted EBITDA €674m (+1.5%; flat ex‑Downtown), H1 adjusted diluted EPS €0.47 (+4.3%), H1 free cash flow €24m (vs €163m prior) and operating cash before tax €408m (vs €488m prior); management revised its free‑cash‑flow definition and kept the adjusted‑EBITDA‑to‑FCF conversion target at 60–70%, expects FCF to be stronger in H2, anticipates advances roughly in line with last year, predicts merchandising to improve in 2027, and plans continued discretionary investment (historically ~60% catalog / 20% core M&A / 20% other M&A) while returning capital via dividends (€432m interim) and buybacks (first €500m program completed with €485m repurchased; participating in second €500m with ~€250m transacted); strategic return targets include advance portfolio pre‑tax IRR ≥15% (project hurdles 10–20%), catalog IRR ≥10% (Chord targeting mid‑teens; UMG equity affiliate investment €342m to date), and core M&A hurdles 10–20%, with Downtown expected to scale and margin improve through integration.Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.89B | 12.01B | 11.83B | 11.11B | 10.34B | 8.50B |
| Gross Profit | 4.89B | 4.67B | 5.09B | 4.90B | 4.59B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 2.54B | 2.44B | 3.47B | 2.22B | 1.71B | 1.64B |
| Net Income | 326.66M | 1.47B | 2.09B | 1.26B | 782.00M | 886.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.37B | 17.46B | 17.32B | 13.09B | 11.64B | 12.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 484.80M | 82.00M | 553.00M | 504.00M | 439.00M | 585.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.55B | 3.41B | 1.90B | 2.51B | 2.67B | 3.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.72B | 12.89B | 12.77B | 10.11B | 9.29B | 10.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.62B | 4.54B | 4.53B | 2.96B | 2.35B | 2.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.54B | 1.31B | 1.59B | 1.64B | 1.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.61B | 1.75B | 1.89B | 1.73B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -989.96M | -839.51M | -1.05B | -622.00M | -520.00M | -391.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -577.11M | -871.20M | -552.00M | -1.28B | -1.35B | -1.34B |
Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR Technical Analysis
Negative
8.38
Price Trends
8.75
Negative
9.82
Negative
10.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
31.18
Neutral
8.15
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNVGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.33, below the 50-day MA of 8.75, and below the 200-day MA of 10.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UNVGY.
Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $34.02B | 57.96 | 6.41% | 1.78% | 35.92% | 15.44% | |
65 Neutral | $14.44B | 21.07 | 90.84% | 2.85% | 12.91% | 125.41% | |
58 Neutral | $29.48B | 80.67 | 7.91% | 3.83% | 12.84% | -86.72% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
54 Neutral | $39.89B | -151.34 | 73.28% | ― | 10.75% | -146.20% | |
52 Neutral | $625.02M | 71.19 | 2.34% | ― | 11.41% | 15.57% | |
44 Neutral | $34.10M | -0.27 | -205.22% | ― | 27.16% | -18.55% |
* General Sector Average
UNVGY
Universal Music Group N.V. Unsponsored ADR
7.96
-6.64
-45.48%
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TKO
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176.04
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WMG
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27.05
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-18.82%
ANGH
Anghami Inc.
3.57
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RSVR
Reservoir Media
9.65
1.84
23.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.