Green River Holding Co., Ltd. (8444) AI Stock Analysis

Green River Holding Co., Ltd.

(TPEx:8444)

Select Model

Rating:39Underperform

Price Target:TWD 2.50▼(-23.08% Downside)

Action:initiatedcoverage

Date:11/09/26

Green River Holding scores near the bottom of the range, driven overwhelmingly by financial distress: a negative gross margin, a record NT$1.11 billion net loss, six straight years of negative free cash flow, and a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 16.6x that leaves almost no equity cushion against NT$6.4 billion of debt. Technicals reinforce the negative view, with the price trading well below all major moving averages and negative MACD momentum. Valuation provides no offset — earnings are negative and no dividend is paid. A sharp recovery in pulp/paper pricing or a successful restructuring would be needed to change the trajectory; absent that, the shares should be viewed as speculative with meaningful refinancing and dilution risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue ScaleMeaningful revenue scale provides an established operating base and indicates the company has material business activity to support a recovery. If profitability and cost control improve, this existing scale could help operating gains translate into stronger earnings over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sustained LossesSeveral consecutive years of large losses, culminating in negative gross profit in 2025, indicate severe pressure on the underlying economics of the business. Persistent margin deterioration reduces retained capital, limits reinvestment capacity, and makes a durable earnings recovery more difficult.

Green River Holding Co., Ltd. (8444) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: TWD 365.10M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 20.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -0.2
Beta (1Y): -0.40
Revenue Growth: -50.12%
EPS Growth: -103.75%
Country: TW
Employees: 1,047
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products

Green River Holding Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green River Holding Co. Ltd. specializes in the manufacturing and sale of various wood-based products, including engineered particle boards, diverse solid wood items, and resins. Their product portfolio also features parawood, solid rubberwood panels...

Green River Holding Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Severe financial distress across all three statements. Revenue collapsed roughly one-third to NT$3.26 billion, gross margin turned negative at -10.9%, and the net loss widened to a record NT$1.11 billion (-34.0% net margin) — the fifth loss in six years. The balance sheet is near breaking point, with NT$6.43 billion of debt against only NT$387 million of equity (~16.6x debt-to-equity) after equity shrank more than 80% in a single year, and ROE of -287%. Cash flow is equally weak: operating cash flow swung to -NT$277 million and free cash flow has been negative in every one of the last six years. The only mitigants are flat (not rising) debt levels, restrained capex, and proof of earnings power during the 2021 upcycle.

Income Statement

8Very Negative

Balance Sheet

9Very Negative

Cash Flow

11Very Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.10B	3.26B	4.88B	4.65B	3.79B	5.75B
Gross Profit	-555.26M	-355.00M	532.96M	481.31M	401.96M	1.38B
EBITDA	-662.57M	-362.32M	38.66M	298.04M	-195.06M	946.71M
Net Income	-1.56B	-1.11B	-887.67M	-622.44M	-787.31M	394.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.59B	7.48B	8.13B	8.31B	8.62B	8.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.32M	37.99M	182.59M	466.07M	501.14M	393.65M
Total Debt	6.58B	6.43B	6.59B	6.35B	6.50B	5.58B
Total Liabilities	7.44B	7.16B	7.18B	6.84B	6.95B	6.36B
Stockholders Equity	145.80M	386.60M	1.01B	1.51B	1.71B	2.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-348.11M	-409.80M	-118.49M	-234.13M	-438.96M	-70.11M
Operating Cash Flow	-211.64M	-276.76M	81.97M	-67.36M	-184.38M	457.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-82.47M	-79.41M	-178.16M	-177.54M	-295.69M	-413.78M
Financing Cash Flow	167.87M	228.42M	-191.01M	201.88M	603.55M	116.25M

Green River Holding Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

TW:8444 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
TW:4413	55Neutral	TWD 584.02M	14.57	―	1.67%	44.06%	―
TW:8444	39Underperform	TWD 404.98M	-0.23	―	―	-50.12%	-103.75%
TW:1441	38Underperform	TWD 542.12M	-4.37	―	―	-23.44%	-226.14%
TW:3432	35Underperform	TWD 572.22M	-16.14	―	―	195.27%	-19.42%
TW:4406	32Underperform	TWD 519.12M	-12.99	―	―	-41.59%	33.73%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TW:8444 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TW:8444	Green River Holding Co., Ltd.	3.25	-7.00	-68.29%
TW:1441	Tah Tong Textile Co., Ltd.	8.70	-3.84	-30.64%
TW:2940	Sun Own Industrial Co., Ltd.	23.95	-0.44	-1.78%
TW:3432	Tai Twun Enterprise Co. Ltd.	13.30	-1.15	-7.96%
TW:4406	Hsin Sin Textile Co., Ltd.	10.00	0.19	1.94%
TW:4413	EST GLOBAL APPAREL Co., Ltd.	18.00	-0.62	-3.31%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 09, 2026

Green River Holding Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis