Sernova (SVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$65.70M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 114.73K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.66
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 32.71%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 17
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 328,484,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 85,825
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 114,729
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.00
• Price Target Upside: 2627.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

Sernova Biotherapeutics is currently high-risk due to its severe financial challenges, including no revenue and negative equity. While technical indicators show some potential for short-term movement, the overvaluation and poor financial health dominate the outlook. Positive corporate events offer some hope for future growth, especially in clinical advancements, but these are overshadowed by the company's current financial distress.

Positive Factors

Clinical trial outcomes

9 of 12 (75%) patients had an HbA1c level <7.0%, demonstrating effective management of blood glucose levels.

Clinical trial progress

Encouragement by the Phase 1/2's progress includes a recent green light from the trial's DSMB, with anticipation for data that should provide welcome guidance related to the design, initiation, and timeline of a possible Phase 3 pivotal study.

Competitive position

Deep responses in diabetes patients position the technology for potential commercial success, particularly as competitors exit the space, and the impressive response rates and durability support Sernova's strategy and justify further investigation.

Market opportunity

Submission of an IND application for the Cell Pouch device in hypothyroidism could address a significant market opportunity estimated at approximately $2.2 billion.

Negative Factors

Clinical evaluation limitation

The Phase 1/2 trial has shown a significant number of patients administered the Cell Pouch in the trial achieved insulin dependence, exhibited HbA1c levels at non-diabetic ranges, and many of these responses have been maintained or even deepened over time.

Interim clinical data

Despite these data coming from an interim clinical evaluation, these are clear efficacy signals and the safety profile has remained favorable.

Sernova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sernova Corp. operates as a clinical-stage regenerative medicine therapeutics company in Canada. The company focuses on the development and commercialization of regenerative medicine therapeutics, including its proprietary Cell Pouch and associated technologies consisting of therapeutic cells and local cellular immune protection. Its Cell Pouch is a medical device designed to create a vascularized tissue environment for the transplantation and engraftment of therapeutic cells, which then release proteins and/or hormones for the long-term treatment of various serious chronic diseases, such as diabetes, hemophilia, and thyroid disease. Sernova Corp. has a research collaboration with AgeX Therapeutics, Inc. to generate immune-protected therapeutic cells; and a research agreement with the University of Miami to advance the development of Cell Pouch cell therapy platform. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in London, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Sernova primarily generates revenue through the development and potential commercialization of its Cell Pouch System and associated therapeutic cells. The company could earn income through licensing agreements, partnerships, and collaborations with other biotech or pharmaceutical companies interested in integrating Sernova's technology into their treatment pipelines. Additionally, Sernova may receive milestone payments and royalties from these partners as their therapeutics progress through clinical trials and toward market approval. The company may also benefit from research grants and government funding to support its innovation and development efforts.

Sernova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sernova faces severe financial challenges with no revenue generation, mounting losses, and negative equity. The company's financial health is concerning, suggesting a high-risk profile without significant operational or strategic changes.

Income Statement

The company reports zero revenue with consistently increasing net losses over the years, indicating significant operational challenges. Gross profit and EBITDA are also negative, reflecting an unprofitable core business.

Balance Sheet

The company has negative stockholders' equity in the latest period, indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and total liabilities exceed total assets, highlighting significant leverage and risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flows are consistently negative, showing reliance on external financing for operations. Free cash flow is also negative, with recent financing inflows not enough to cover operational cash burn. This signals potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
-265.58K	0.00	-445.55K	-440.00K	-267.20K	-225.23K
	EBIT
-21.88M	-31.84M	-41.13M	-24.18M	-6.87M	-5.22M
	EBITDA
-26.97M	-31.25M	-40.19M	-24.54M	-6.60M	-5.56M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-28.14M	-32.19M	-39.00M	-24.54M	-7.02M	-5.41M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.21M	6.01M	19.81M	49.78M	27.87M	3.95M
	Total Assets
3.08M	7.53M	22.11M	52.48M	29.82M	5.73M
	Total Debt
546.47K	569.94K	136.12K	275.98K	393.35K	702.61K
	Net Debt
-661.10K	-5.44M	-8.59M	-3.50M	-27.48M	-3.25M
	Total Liabilities
21.01M	20.48M	9.59M	4.88M	1.75M	1.58M
	Stockholders Equity
-17.93M	-12.96M	12.51M	47.61M	28.07M	4.14M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-19.47M	-18.90M	-30.44M	-14.75M	-6.86M	-4.94M
	Operating Cash Flow
-19.47M	-18.90M	-30.34M	-14.42M	-6.84M	-3.94M
	Investing Cash Flow
9.04M	11.12M	34.78M	-46.34M	-228.78K	994.37K
	Financing Cash Flow
5.13M	5.07M	503.46K	36.66M	31.00M	5.10M

Sernova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, above the 50-day MA of 0.19, and below the 200-day MA of 0.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SVA.

Sernova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COV	79 Outperform	C$72.38M	13.73	19.57%	―	38.28%	―
MBX	66 Neutral	C$50.69M	25.35	6.85%	―	2.72%	-47.79%
MDNA	53 Neutral	C$88.38M	―	-149.09%	―	―	-67.03%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.14B	3.39	-43.55%	2.83%	16.49%	-0.19%
SVA	33 Underperform	C$65.70M	―	248.46%	―	―	32.71%
MIR	25 Underperform	C$62.94M	―		―	-32.14%	-52.38%

Sernova Corporate Events

Sernova Biotherapeutics Secures $4 Million Loan for Clinical Advancements

Sernova Biotherapeutics has secured a $4 million loan from Navigate Private Yield Fund LP III to advance its clinical development plans, particularly for its Cell Pouch Bio-hybrid Organ aimed at treating type 1 diabetes. This funding, supported by a secured guarantee from the company’s U.S. subsidiary and a board member, will be used for working capital and corporate purposes, positioning Sernova as a leading company in U.S. clinical trials for implantable and retrievable diabetes treatment solutions.

Spark’s Take on TSE:SVA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:SVA is a Underperform.

Sernova Biotherapeutics faces critical financial challenges with no revenue and ongoing losses, posing a high-risk profile. Technical indicators suggest bearish trends, compounded by an unfavorable valuation. However, recent positive corporate developments, including clinical trial advancements, offer some potential for future growth. The stock remains high-risk and speculative.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:SVA stock, click here.

Sernova’s Innovative Diabetes Treatment to be Featured at International Conference

Sernova Biotherapeutics announced that their Cell Pouch Bio-hybrid Organ, aimed at providing a functional cure for type 1 diabetes, will be featured at the 2025 Cell & Gene Meeting on the Med in Rome. This highlights the company’s collaboration with Evotec and the scientific community’s interest in their innovative approach, potentially impacting the treatment landscape for chronic diseases like diabetes.

Spark’s Take on TSE:SVA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:SVA is a Underperform.

Sernova faces significant financial risks with no revenue and ongoing losses. While technical indicators suggest bearish trends, recent corporate developments in clinical trials and leadership changes could offer some longer-term potential. However, the current financial distress overshadows these prospects, making the stock very high-risk.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:SVA stock, click here.

Sernova Advances Clinical Trial for Diabetes Treatment with Promising Results

Sernova Biotherapeutics has announced a positive update on its Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the Cell Pouch Bio-hybrid Organ aimed at treating type 1 diabetes. The Data and Safety Management Board has approved the enrollment of the final patient in Cohort B, and Sernova is preparing to advance to Cohort C in the second half of 2025. The trial’s primary endpoint is to demonstrate the safety and tolerability of islet transplantation into the Cell Pouch. The ongoing trial has shown promising results, including islet cell survival and insulin independence in patients, with no evidence of detrimental fibrosis. Sernova plans to collaborate with Evotec to launch a T1D trial using induced pluripotent stem cell islet-like clusters following the conclusion of Cohort C.

Sernova Biotherapeutics Strengthens Leadership with New Chief Development Officer

Sernova Biotherapeutics has appointed Dr. Pericles Calias as Chief Development Officer and Head of R&D to enhance its operational depth and expertise in cell therapy. Dr. Calias brings extensive experience in drug product development and regulatory approvals, which is expected to accelerate the advancement of Sernova’s Cell Pouch Bio-hybrid Organ as a functional cure for T1D, potentially transforming treatment paradigms and benefiting patients with chronic diseases.

Sernova Biotherapeutics Secures FDA Clearance for Thyroid Cell Therapy Trial

Sernova Biotherapeutics has received FDA clearance for its Investigational New Drug application to evaluate the Cell Pouch bio-hybrid organ with auto-transplanted thyroid cells in patients undergoing thyroid surgery. This development marks a significant step forward in Sernova’s efforts to provide a long-term solution for hypothyroidism without the need for hormone replacement or immune suppression. The clearance allows Sernova to expand its clinical trials and strengthen its position in the regenerative medicine field.