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Morguard NA REIT UN
(TSX:MRG.UN)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
C$17.00
▲(5.66% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is anchored by mid-range financial performance and mixed earnings-call fundamentals: stable cash flow and healthy margins are offset by a sharp TTM revenue decline, moderate leverage, and weaker YoY NOI/FFO with occupancy pressure and rising interest costs. Valuation is a key support (low P/E and ~4.8% yield), but technicals are a notable drag with the price below all major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Recurring rental income and rent growth
The apartment portfolio generates recurring rental revenue, while positive average monthly rent growth supports organic NOI expansion. Stronger turnover rents in Canada provide additional embedded upside as leases renew, although market conditions remain important.
Negative Factors
Occupancy and NOI pressure
Lower occupancy directly reduces rental revenue and increases leasing costs, while the NOI decline indicates pressure is already reaching property-level earnings. Recovery depends on absorption of new supply, improved demand and less reliance on incentives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring rental income and rent growth
The apartment portfolio generates recurring rental revenue, while positive average monthly rent growth supports organic NOI expansion. Stronger turnover rents in Canada provide additional embedded upside as leases renew, although market conditions remain important.
Read all positive factors
Morguard NA REIT UN (MRG.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$766.00M
Dividend Yield5.44%
Average Volume (3M)27.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-0.84%
EPS Growth2.95%
CountryCA
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.84
Shares Outstanding34,956,932
10 Day Avg. Volume20,195
30 Day Avg. Volume27,842
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)0.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio10.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$21.50Price Target Upside33.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$353.81M
Morguard NA REIT UN Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
This open-ended, unincorporated real estate investment trust (REIT) is organized and operates under the legal framework of the Province of Ontario, Canada. Its shares are listed and actively traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) using the tic...
How the Company Makes Money
The REIT makes money primarily by earning rental revenue from tenants living in its apartment suites. This revenue is generated through monthly residential leases and is supported by maintaining occupancy and achieving market rent levels across it...
Morguard NA REIT UN Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of positive balance-sheet and operational datapoints (asset growth, strong liquidity, refinancings, NAV and mid-single-digit rent growth) alongside meaningful near-term operating and profitability headwinds (declines in NOI, net income, FFO and occupancy pressures in both Canada and the U.S., plus higher interest and operating costs). Management highlighted conservative payout and available liquidity and expects occupancies and incentives to gradually improve, but the quarter showed clear earnings and occupancy softness that will take time to recover.Positive Updates
Balance Sheet and Asset Growth
Total assets increased to $4.8 billion at June 30, 2026 from $4.5 billion at Dec 31, 2025, driven by FX, fair value gains and increased cash from refinancings.
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline
Net income for Q2 2026 was $26.1M compared to $30.0M in Q2 2025, a decrease of $3.9M (≈13.0%), primarily attributable to lower NOI and non-cash changes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Balance Sheet and Asset Growth
Total assets increased to $4.8 billion at June 30, 2026 from $4.5 billion at Dec 31, 2025, driven by FX, fair value gains and increased cash from refinancings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that occupancies should improve moderately through the summer with modest AMR growth, noting Q2 may have been the low point in Canada as market conditions normalize and incentive-driven competition moderates; key metrics cited: total assets $4.8B (up from $4.5B at Dec 31, 2025), IFRS NOI $54.2M (down 4.7% YoY), proportionate NOI down 4.9% YoY, net income $26.1M (Q2), basic FFO $22M ($0.42/unit, down 11.1% YoY) with an FFO payout ratio of 46.8%, IFRS NAV/unit $45.55, cash on hand ~$204M plus $100M available on the revolver, six‑month CapEx $26.5M, Canadian AMR $1,885 (+3.5% YoY), Canada occupancy 91.4% (vs 95.2% a year ago) with H1 turnover ~5.1% and AMR growth on turnover 6.8%, U.S. AMR USD 1,933 (+1.8% YoY) and U.S. occupancy 92.8% (vs 94.8%), mortgages with a weighted average term to maturity of 5.2 years and weighted average rate 4.18% (up from 4.07%), debt to gross book value 40% (vs 39.5%), recent refinancings providing $86.4M net proceeds (CMHC‑insured $162.8M at 4.26% WA rate, 11.2‑yr term; Kennesaw USD 29.2M at 5.4% for 5 years), and an anticipated H2 closing of a ~$1B TDAM joint portfolio (subject to lender consents and CMHC) that management expects will not materially alter leverage (roughly mid‑40s% at most), while higher interest expense from late‑quarter refinancings will be more fully reflected next quarter.Morguard NA REIT UN Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 349.52M | 354.65M | 344.19M | 331.62M | 278.49M | 245.57M |
| Gross Profit | 165.19M | 166.49M | 186.38M | 180.24M | 131.86M | 115.10M |
| EBITDA | 214.25M | 197.05M | 179.27M | 254.03M | 149.68M | 68.22M |
| Net Income | 96.26M | 102.97M | 101.86M | 176.34M | 219.28M | 242.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.77B | 4.54B | 4.57B | 4.10B | 3.93B | 3.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 203.94M | 114.63M | 51.26M | 17.82M | 14.64M | 26.56M |
| Total Debt | 1.88B | 1.77B | 1.79B | 1.56B | 1.48B | 1.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.57B | 2.43B | 2.46B | 2.14B | 2.08B | 1.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.09B | 1.99B | 2.00B | 1.85B | 1.75B | 1.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 90.20M | 87.76M | 97.50M | 88.97M | 75.17M | 63.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.20M | 87.76M | 97.50M | 88.97M | 75.17M | 63.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -79.48M | -71.30M | -59.40M | -209.01M | -11.06M | -31.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 124.09M | 49.14M | -6.74M | 120.84M | -78.88M | -33.05M |
Morguard NA REIT UN Technical Analysis
Negative
16.09
Price Trends
15.62
Negative
16.11
Negative
16.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.30
Negative
34.21
Neutral
24.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MRG.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.94, above the 50-day MA of 15.62, and below the 200-day MA of 16.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MRG.UN.
Morguard NA REIT UN Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$2.98B | -91.31 | -0.66% | 2.82% | 4.56% | -110.12% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
59 Neutral | C$766.00M | 7.87 | 4.74% | 5.44% | -0.84% | 2.95% | |
58 Neutral | C$2.08B | 289.67 | 0.25% | 4.14% | 4.80% | -99.27% | |
49 Neutral | C$606.38M | 18.79 | 3.22% | 5.20% | -17.29% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TSE:MRG.UN
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.