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Lucara Diamond
(TSX:LUC)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.12
▼(-30.59% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (persistently negative free cash flow and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). A very low P/E provides some support, but it is outweighed by cash flow strain and negative momentum.
Positive Factors
Positive profitability
Positive operating and net earnings provide an established base for Lucara’s diamond-mining business and demonstrate that operations can generate accounting profits. This supports continued mine activity and investment, although the durability of those profits depends on reversing the recent weakening in revenue and margins.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin deterioration
Contracting revenue and sharply lower gross margin indicate reduced earnings power from Lucara’s current production and sales mix. If this trend persists, the company will have less profit available to fund mine investment, service obligations, and withstand weaker diamond pricing or operating performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive profitability
Positive operating and net earnings provide an established base for Lucara’s diamond-mining business and demonstrate that operations can generate accounting profits. This supports continued mine activity and investment, although the durability of those profits depends on reversing the recent weakening in revenue and margins.
Read all positive factors
Lucara Diamond (LUC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$194.34M
Dividend Yield9.43%
Average Volume (3M)890.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.0
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth-25.23%
EPS Growth-71.50%
CountryCA
Employees324
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding1,494,887,200
10 Day Avg. Volume1,510,537
30 Day Avg. Volume890,787
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.21
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-1.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$0.30Price Target Upside76.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$129.30M
Lucara Diamond Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lucara Diamond Corp. operates as a diamond mining enterprise, primarily focused on the exploration, development, and ongoing management of diamond assets throughout Africa. A key holding is its 100% ownership of the Karowe mine, situated in Botswa...
How the Company Makes Money
Lucara primarily makes money by producing and selling rough diamonds recovered from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when rough diamonds are sold, with realized pricing largely driven by the mix of stones recovered (size distribution an...
Lucara Diamond Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 10, 2024
(Q1-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance and progress in underground development, but was marred by lower recovery of specials and increased net loss due to transaction costs. There is anticipation of improved cash flows in the latter half of the year.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Margin and Cost Control
Operating margin of 51% with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, which is better than guidance.
Negative Updates
Lower Recovery of Specials
Recovery of 5.1% specials below the expected 6.8%, affecting revenue from larger stones.
Read all updates
Q1-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Margin and Cost Control
Operating margin of 51% with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, which is better than guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Lucara Diamond earnings call for Q1 2024, key metrics and guidance were discussed. The company reported $41 million in diamond sales, with 93,500 carats sold across the HB agreement, Clara, and regular tenders. The operating margin was noted at 51%, with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, reflecting strong cost control. A total of 160 specials over 10.8 carats were recovered, although this 5.1% recovery rate was below the expected 6.8% for mining in the South Lobe. The underground project is progressing well, with $140 million drawn from the project loan and $25 million from the working capital facility. Net loss increased by $9 million, primarily due to transaction costs from a rebased loan agreement. Despite lower volumes of larger stones affecting cash flow, an uplift is anticipated in H2 2024. Revenue guidance remains at $220 million to $250 million, with ongoing efforts to meet operational targets and sustain community-focused initiatives in Botswana.Lucara Diamond Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
37
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 148.02M | 162.46M | 203.88M | 172.40M | 212.93M | 230.08M |
| Gross Profit | 42.21M | 51.28M | 84.45M | 62.35M | 84.60M | 75.14M |
| EBITDA | 35.63M | 48.69M | 66.61M | 53.50M | 87.18M | 100.29M |
| Net Income | 15.03M | 26.57M | 39.90M | -20.19M | 40.43M | 23.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 996.06M | 771.30M | 660.83M | 575.80M | 495.84M | 411.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 166.74M | 31.86M | 22.79M | 13.34M | 26.42M | 27.01M |
| Total Debt | 386.50M | 223.46M | 195.83M | 137.99M | 78.60M | 48.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 573.14M | 455.45M | 389.10M | 333.67M | 225.78M | 162.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | 422.93M | 315.85M | 271.73M | 242.13M | 270.06M | 248.97M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -88.92M | -48.29M | -38.71M | -52.33M | 77.15M | 68.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 44.14M | 54.99M | 56.30M | 63.36M | 96.23M | 83.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -133.37M | -103.63M | -94.35M | -115.79M | -125.42M | -97.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 305.21M | 57.53M | 47.76M | 39.66M | 29.14M | 36.80M |
Lucara Diamond Technical Analysis
Negative
0.17
Price Trends
0.16
Negative
0.16
Negative
0.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
42.78
Neutral
47.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, above the 50-day MA of 0.16, and below the 200-day MA of 0.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LUC.
Lucara Diamond Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.13
-0.05
-27.78%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
0.00
0.00%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
>-0.01
-25.00%
Lucara Diamond Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara’s US$350 Million Bond Admitted to Trading on Euronext ABM
Positive
Sep 2, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. said Euronext Oslo Børs has admitted its US$350 million senior secured bonds, issued through subsidiary Lucara Capital S.à.r.l., to trading on Euronext ABM effective September 3, 2026. The five-year bonds carry a fix...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lucara Holds Guidance as Q2 Revenue Dips, Advances Karowe Underground Project
Neutral
Aug 7, 2026
Lucara reported Q2 2026 revenue of $41.0 million, down 6% year on year, as lower tender volumes and weaker pricing for smaller stones offset the sale of the 2,488-carat Motswedi diamond. Operating costs fell 11% to $23.76 per tonne processed, belo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.